Math help because of Jason1990

[tolbiny]

Cross posted in SS.

Ok, here is the scenario-

You have a drawing hand on the flop with enough callers to make a raise profitable provided you see the river. You will not have enough callers on the turn to make that call profitable without pot odds- ie you lose a portion of that bet, but in doing so you gain from the pot odds.
If you do not raise you do not expect a big enough pot on the turn to call for the river. Would it ever be better to just call the flop so that you could fold the turn unimproved?
I am going to give the math a shot, but i am already at a loss on where to begin.

[umdpoker]

in limit poker, it is almost never correct to fold a flush draw. if you have enough callers on the flop to make a raise profitable, why would you not do so?

[Scotch78]

It matters what you're drawing to and what the board looks like. More info please.

Scott

[thirddan]

i can't think of any scenario in Limit HE where a flop raise for value is profitable, but you don't have the odds to call a single bet on the turn...

Also, why would you want to pass up a profitable bet?

[Godde]

if you're on a draw, especially in limit, if you call instead of raising, isn't that enough money saved to warrant a call on the turn also?? regardless of pot odds you're still only paying the same amount of money to see the river, provided someone doesn't go nuts on the turn.

[Victor]

You have 23h in the BB. All fold to SB who limps.

The flop is 8h9hAd giving you a flush draw.

The SB bets. The pot is laying you 3:1. Your draw is 4:1 to hit on the turn and 2:1 to hit by the river.

Do you pump the pot here or do you fold? Forget about free cards, table image etc.

Initially, I thought fold, but I could not prove it mathematically to myself since I am lazy, hungover, dumb.

[DonkeyKong]

doesn't this depend on whether you have overcards or not??

if you have a flush draw with 87s, you have no overcards and so raising might drive others out but gain you nothing in terms of 'buying outs'... if you have the nut flush draw, you may be able to buy some outs if you raise and then an Ace comes... (although I would consider these partial outs depending on the board texture).

With 8-high, you are not going to win the pot without improvement so in situations where it is close, (others may call your raise or they may not)... you may end up going heads-up vs a re-raiser if you raise... I prefer just calling...

[DonkeyKong]

oh, you are playing heads-up? I think I would just fold... I don't want to waste multiple BB's on a mariginal call for a small pot heads-up... I used to play stuff like this but realized I was losing too much money chasing hands I was only in because I was in the blind... screw it, wait for a multiway pot to play a flush draw...

then again, I have been known to pass-up marginally profitable plays in the pursuit of reduced variance....

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
Forget about free cards, table image etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

While this may be attractive, it's impractical. Your image can alter your odds just as easily as getting a free card. These things are important in poker. I understand that you are trying to come up with a formulaic answer, but you will be much better served by understanding how to use all of the resources at your disposal, not just the cards.

In the example of 23s from the BB, try this line:

Raise the flop, bet the turn, check-fold the river unimproved or check-raise the river if the flush comes. (or bet the river if you think you can fold a middle pair. The A will call you, depending on your table image.)

How often do you really think someone else will be holding that A?

You will win this pot often with the line I just used provided that your image is not one of complete mush and you haven't been showing down bad beats like J4. If they have any respect for you at all, you won't be called down with less than TP decent kicker.

In addition, once they see you play like this, you will be more likely to get action when you have a strong hand. They will know you aren't out of your mind, but they might still have a chance to beat you. The effect is that their decisions of how and when to play with you become closer and therefore they will make more mistakes against you.

These are all good things.

Hope this made sense to you guys and helped out.

Dov

[thirddan]

[ QUOTE ]
if you call instead of raising, isn't that enough money saved to warrant a call on the turn also??

[/ QUOTE ]

There are many situations and a great number of draws (OESD/flush mainly) that for every bet you put into the pot you make money, so you should be raising/reraising these draws for value. If you aren't playing these draws aggressively you aren't taking advantage of the good situation you are in.

[citanul]

Your situation is not the same situation as referenced in the original thread, that being one where "you have enough callers to make a raise profitable on the flop."

Say a flush draw is 3-1 to hit by the river, and we say that we have enough callers.

Then, if we have enough callers to (3?) make it so, when we raise, there is a minimum of 6 bb in the pot when we start the turn, that being 4 BB on the flop, and 4x.5 BB preflop.
So now, we have a 6BB pot on the turn, have missed, and MUST pay one more bet to see the river with a 4-1 shot, because the pot is laying you a minimum of 7:1, that being a bettor and the 6 in there already.

That's the minimum possible pot in structured limit holdem, I think, that has all the requirements met. So no, I personally don't think that with a draw that you are sure will be good when it gets there, this ever could happen.

citanul