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View Full Version : This ones for you Jason1990


tolbiny
09-30-2004, 04:28 PM
Gonna cross post in the thoery section aswell.

Ok, here is the scenario-

You have a drawing hand on the flop with enough callers to make a raise profitable provided you see the river. You will not have enough callers on the turn to make that call profitable without pot odds- ie you lose a portion of that bet, but in doing so you gain from the pot odds.
If you do not raise you do not expect a big enough pot on the turn to call for the river. Would it ever be better to just call the flop so that you could fold the turn unimproved?
I am going to give the math a shot, but i am already at a loss on where to begin.

Bill Smith
09-30-2004, 04:56 PM
This almost never happens. Let's try a scenario.

You are UTG with JTs. You limp, all fold to SB who completes, BB checks.

Flop (3 SB): A 6 2 with two of your suit.

SB bets, BB calls. If you raise here, it is for value because you are better than 2:1 to hit a flush by the river. If both call, the pot stands at 4.5 BB and you easily have the odds to call your flush draw on the turn if you miss.

But let's say you call. The turn is a dud, SB bets, BB folds, and it's your play. Technically, the pot stands at 4 BB and you need 4.2:1 to call. However, not calling would be incredibly wrong - if you hit your flush, you will almost certainly get at least 1 more bet from SB, making your implied odds at least 5:1.

In other words, if your draw is strong enough to raise for value, there are very few situations where your implied odds aren't great enough to at least deserve a turn call no matter what.

pudley4
09-30-2004, 06:36 PM
The only situation where this could realistically happen is one where the blinds/antes are very small in relation to the bets (especiallly the big bets); e.g. the 4/8 game with $1 and $2 blinds.

tolbiny
09-30-2004, 06:38 PM
I realize that the situation wont happen very often- even less so with something as strong as a flush draw. I was just interested if it was posible to have a hand that you could raise for value but you would only have odds to call the turn if you did raise for value AND that turn call would cost you more than the flop value raise would gain you.
One way i thought it could happed would be with a hand that could "lose" outs, such as a backdoor flush draw coupled with uther outs.
It was just a thought stimulated by other conversations, and i don't really know how to go about setting up such equations.