How hard do I push?

[Chaostracize]

New guys sits down in SB. Table is very weak LAG. 100 max buy in at TS. I have a little over 200, new guys (villain obviously) has a little over 100.

K /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif on the button, I've been playing SO tight for the last two hours, there are 6 other limpers, and I decide to limp in. No comments on the preflop play, just postflop, please.

Flop comes: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB bets 5 into the 18 dollar pot, 3 callers, and I reraise to 20. SB reraises to 50. Table folds.

What's your action? (Including the dubious raise to 20).

[Wayfare]

I don't think the raise to $20 was dubious. I think you push in now. If he has a set you are in trouble, but everything else you have a good shot against and there is tons of money in the pot.

[amoeba]

I think villain has KT or QJc.

[Ben]

I'd push here.

[amoeba]

I'm not saying a push is bad but you are probably behind at this point and you probably have no folding equity with the push. I think villain is pretty pot committed.

[CASHIZ]

He's got K 10 (top two pair), but that's not the point, the point is you misplayed this hand. with your draw you got to try to put yourself in a situation where you get a cheap draw. Your raise here is absoultly wrong because there is no poker game on earth where 6 people are all going to fold for any type of bet, except a big move at the pot. So given that you get no expection on your raise as a semi bluff you've got no reason to make it. And in this case you need everyone to fold because unless there complete dummies they proble got you beat. With draws you want players in, because it gives you better odds to take with your draw and if you make it you get a nice payoff. Understand though that had you no draw with your king then you must bet and if raised fold. the reason is because your hand is pretty much made so youve got to keep the draws out with a nice size bet, and then fold if raised because there's no way they will re-raise in this case with anything less than two pair.
Just to let you know, that had there been only two players with you seeing the flop, depending on how loose your opponents are a raise is the best play. This is because you have a chance to win it right there, and if not draw out. But again if your raised your kings no good and your faceing a huge bet on the turn so throw it away.

[Prevaricator]

You are a favorite over T6, which is a possible holding of the SB (he's the sb). You are also in good shape vs something like QJc or 78c, both of which are things he could do that with. He could have a set or 2 pair with a K, but you still have a lot of outs. I say either raise a lot or push. If you just call here, you're faced with a pot sized bet on the turn when you miss. He doesn't have a lot left, and you mine as well get the money in now.

[Prevaricator]

He could be up against a higher flush draw, or a hand that is better than his, but isn't a favorite. A hand like KJ isn't going to call his raise, and he doesn't a want hand like TP/better kicker staying in really. Raising is fine, and raising more than he did is definately a consideration.

[Chaostracize]

Most of you got this dead on, as I probably would have and made the correct fold if I had thought about it for 10 more seconds instead of being so ecsatic I hit top pair with the second nut flush draw.

KT it was and I never improved after pushing.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Gotta push. Your a fav over a LOT of hands.
PS your preflop play is fine. You can call there in LIMIT even (after allthose limpers OTB).

[Chaostracize]

The problem I'm seeing though is that I am either a slight favorite over VERY few hands (QcJc or T6) who would REraise me after I raised 3 callers of the intial bet and a big dog against most hands that would make this play (KT or a set).

What hands can you see playing back at me that I'm a big favorite too? You think a weak K, or MPTK, or weak flush draw/bottom pair would play this strongly back at me?

The more I think about it the more I think I need to fold this hand, as his post flop reraise shows way too much strength and it's too easy that I'm completely dominated. The only other time i can imagine a reraise without two pair or a set is AcKx making it less likely I have a flush draw. But even then I'm a dog.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem I'm seeing though is that I am either a slight favorite over VERY few hands (QcJc or T6) who would REraise me after I raised 3 callers of the intial bet and a big dog against most hands that would make this play (KT or a set).

[/ QUOTE ]
Youre ahead of bottom 2, top pair and lower, worse draws....
Youre really only behind on the flop to a set or top 2. In fact, you might be ahead of top 2. goto www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net)

[Chaostracize]

Already ran the numbers on twodimes.

QcJc, big favorite. Bottom two, coin flip in my favor. Big dog against top two. Coin flip in his favor with a K with a better kicker.

[Chaostracize]

I guess the point I'm trying to make is whether or not I should have been more scared than I was by his reraise.

[Prevaricator]

You are almost EV neutral vs KT because of the money already in the pot. Because of his range of hands, you can't not push here.

[amoeba]

I disagree with the push.

I don't believe villain has such a large range of hands.At first I thought that QcJc is possible but now that I think about it, I don't think he would open with pot sized bet with QcJc and then reraise your 20 raise to 50.

I also think K, higher kicker is out. Again, the bet pot sized, reraise to 50 with KQ, KJ is not typical.

Neither do I feel that he would make the same move with AXc.

you can pretty much limit his range of hands down to KT or a set. Due to how pot commited villain is thus providing you no folding equity, you lose a significant advantage of the push. Thus in this case, I would fold. Even EV is not enough for me to risk my whole stack.