Huge final table decision!

[mistaken]

Hey Y'all,

Here's the deal: there's 3 people left in this $20+2 multi on PP out of the starting 860 players. First place is $3,700, second is $2,100 and third is $1,300.

I'm in first with 310,000 chips. Second is 270,000 who's on my left and third has 210,000 on my right. Both players are tight and semi-aggressive.

Blinds are 10,000 and 20,000 and I get dealt 99 in the BB. 1st position folds and SB raises all-in for 210,000. This is the first time he has ever pushed preflop... his standard move is the double the BB. I thought about this forever and decided to toss it... do you guys agree with me?
I put him on 88-JJ or 2 AK or AQ.

Let me know what y'all think about this.

Mistaken

[Chief911]

Nice read. You're probably a coinflip at best, and a big dog most of the time.

Nick

[Che]

mistaken-

[ QUOTE ]
This is the first time he has ever pushed preflop... his standard move is the double the BB. I thought about this forever and decided to toss it... do you guys agree with me?
I put him on 88-JJ or 2 AK or AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Has he been opening for 2xBB with a stack of 10BB or less? Or did he just lose a pot (or did the blinds just increase) such that this is his first open-raise with an approximately 10BB stack?

SB currently has 10.5BB so he is bordering on all-in or fold territory as many define it. As a result, he may have a much wider range of hands than you have assigned IF he has just decided to switch to ai/fold mode.

Given the relative chip counts, even if I put him on a wider range of hands, I would probably still fold, but I point out the possible misread of his range of hands because laying this down would be much tougher if you were getting shortstacked (rather than having a big enough stack to wait for a better opportunity).

Later,
Che