blind defense 32o

[Chris Daddy Cool]

don't remember the exact hand but it went something like this

party poker 3/6

an unknown player openraises UTG. folded back to me in the bb with 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I call (?!)

flop: 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check. He bets. I raise (?!)

turn: 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet. He calls.

River: J /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check to induce a bluff.

How'd I do?

[Seether]

I would have to say calling an UTG preflop raise with 32o is not blind defense, its a stupid move against a most likely *real* hand. Correct me if Im wrong but blind defense is something you do against late position raisers that are first in the pot.

Anyways unless you have a read that he will fold to raises on a raggy flop I dont think the flop raise is that great of a raise. What is your plan if a face card comes on the turn?

[Surfbullet]

I personally would not defend in this situation... out of position with a hand with 0 showdown value... I'll look for a better spot.

I'm interested to hear your thoughts and those of more experienced blind defense specialists.

Surf

[tolbiny]

I dont think there is any need to wait for others, unless you ahve a very specific read that this guy will lay down on the flop without a pair/good draw, this is a bad call and a bad flop c/r.

[eric5148]

This, by definition, wasn't blind defense (unless you had a specific read on the raiser). It's just a maniacal play.

[spamuell]

I don't like the pre-flop call.

Bet the river, I'd expect to get called by A-high more than I'd expect A-high to bet.

[Festus22]

I'm sure you already know this but from twodimes:

Hand %win
3s 2c 34.28
Kd Ah 65.18

So getting 3.25:1 on your call, it really isn't bad UNLESS he has a pair in which case you're:

Hand Win
3s 2c 14.81
Jd Jh 84.72

So averaging and taking the probabilities of each, it's probably neutral on the PF call.

Can you outplay him post flop?

[Nate tha' Great]

You've gotta have some mad heads up postflop skeeoz to defend against an UTG raise with 32o. Maybe that's why you kicked my ass last night. /images/graemlins/blush.gif But let's ignore the preflop play and conentrate on the c/raise attempt.

You have some legimiate equity in the hand, obviously. Your gutshot is essentially to the nuts. A pair will give you the best hand ... let's see - if he raises UTG with AK/AQ/AJs/KQs/AA-TT, that's 30 pair combos and 40 overcard combos, so you can count your pair outs as having roughly 4/7 equity, or about 1.7 outs each. That's 7.4 outs total, inclusive of your gutshot.

The questions are
a) how much folding equity you pick up by check-raising and b) how much extra it costs you

Neither of these have straightforward answers. I'm guessing that the answer to (b) is somewhere around 1.25 BB, considering that you always either

--> get 3-bet on the flop (total cost = 1 BB)
or
--> will risk an additional big bet on the turn when you follow through on your bluff (total cost = 1.5 BB).

As for your folding equity, it likely depends what card comes off on the turn.

Let's suppose that:

* He'll fold 50% of the time that a 9 comes off (3 unseen cards)
* He'll fold 35% of the time that a 5, 6, 7, or 8 comes off (14 unseen cards)
* He'll fold 20% of the time that any other card comes off, other than when he pairs up. This equals 47 - 17 - 6 = 24 unseen cards.

That works out to 11.2 bluffing outs.

The pot that you're playing for is effectively 3.75 BB. There are 2.25 BB in preflop, he's putting 1 BB extra in on the flop after he bets and then calls your check-raise, and you're putting in 0.50 BB no matter what since you have the odds to draw to your gutshot / pair outs. We don't give you credit for the bet that *you* put in on the check-raise attempt since it is discretionary and not part of the dead money pool.

If the bluff attempt costs you 1.25 BB, then you're laying 1.25:3.75 = 1:3, which is very close to the chance that an 11.2 outer has of coming in (3.2:1 against on the turn). So if my estimates are close to corect, your check-raise is pretty much value neutral.

We don't know if my estimates are correct, though, since we don't know anything about the opponent. A more aggressive opponent will make your check-raise attempt more expensive by frequently 3-betting; a calling station will be less exploitable since he won't fold as often. The very worst opponent to be up against is one who will be quick to 3-bet with just overcards, but will often wait to the turn to raise if he has a big pair. I am not implying that this is correct strategy, since it is easy to exploit, but it has some merit against an opponent who frquently semibluffs (from a game theoretical standpoint, optimal check-raise defense strategy almost certainly has to involve sometimes playing big hands fast on the flop, and sometimes making a semibluff raise on the turn with overcards after calling the flop).

The best opponent to make this move against is a 'thinking' player, since he'll be inclined to give you credit for defending with something like a middle suited connector or middle pocket pair when defending against a UTG raise, all of which like this board...

...I'm babbling. Horrid preflop. Ni ha.

[Brian]

I'm not sure why you're defending pre-Flop or trying to push this guy off of a hand post-Flop in a tiny pot. I would bet the River, he's not going to bet his AK here very often but will certainly call with it since he's come this far.

-Brian

[Trix]

Those numbers assume that there will be a showdown each time, which there hopefully wont and if there will, then CDCs implied odds are [censored] aswell.
The preflop call sucks and cant be defended, atleast not with EV reasons.

[Trix]

I assume you know that the preflop is horrid, so I´ll just say bet the river, A-high checks, calls or folds at this point.