Who's watching the Saab factory?

[Danenania]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.66 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (20.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 22.66 BB

[bisonbison]

I'm not sure what the flop cap accomplishes unless you know UTG+1 and button are tight postflop. BB is very unlikely to check to you on the turn (unless he wants to c/r) after c/3betting the flop.

[sfer]

I had the same thoughts. I'd call the flop 3-bet intending to raise the turn--that's my best chance to get the two behind me out.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

I had the same thoughts. I'd call the flop 3-bet intending to raise the turn--that's my best chance to get the two behind me out.


[/ QUOTE ]

What are they going to fold that you want them to fold?

[sfer]

Gutshots and single pairs (non-king, non-Ace kickers) are calling 2 correctly after a flop cap.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
Gutshots and single pairs (non-king, non-Ace kickers) are calling 2 correctly after a flop cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

But nobody could have flopped a hand like that. The flop is a dream come true for you. True, if someone picks up a pair or gutshot on the turn, they would be drawing correctly to a turn raise. But do you gain enough equity by forcing them to fold or call incorrectly if they pick up their draw to not punish them on the flop, when your pot equity is likely ginormous?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
But nobody could have flopped a hand like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree about UTG+1 but the button could have absolutely anything at Party 3/6. 37, Q6, 47...none of those hands would surprise me and you want all of them to fold given the pot size.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

I agree about UTG+1 but the button could have absolutely anything at Party 3/6. 37, Q6, 47...none of those hands would surprise me and you want all of them to fold given the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree he could have quite that large of a range of hands. Even poor players will tighten up some when it's 3 bets to them. But your even if he would call with nearly anything, your logic is still a bit off.

If his range of hands are truly that large, then he is more likely to hold something that you don't mind calling a turn bet. Therefore you give up too much by not capping the flop to give him incorrect odds to draw on the turn.

I think all the times he has something like KT, 88, etc will more than make up for the times when his holdings are such that you would like them to fold.

You have an opportunity to collect nearly all of 2 bbs on the flop, plus even more on the turn. I think capping the flop for value is correct here.

[Danenania]

Results: BB flips KTo and MHIG.

My cap was for value, not to thin the field. I think I probably drew out on UTG+1's AA though based on his turn fold. So I'm still not sure if the cap was wise. I'm not sure how I would play the turn if I just called on the flop then a blank hit (instead of the K).

[DeeJ]

But who is watching the factory...? I am guessing this is a reference to some televisual advertisement /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bisonbison]

My cap was for value, not to thin the field.

Unless the BB is a maniac - and you've given us no read - I don't think it can be for value when a player check/3bets the two pre flop raisers on a draw free board.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree he could have quite that large of a range of hands. Even poor players will tighten up some when it's 3 bets to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two nights ago on Party 3/6 I lost a 28+ BB pot with AA on a 3K4A2 board that came in that order. Another player had AK and we capped the flop and turn. It was dragged by 35 spades who called 3 cold preflop. I think the range is that wide.

[ QUOTE ]
If his range of hands are truly that large, then he is more likely to hold something that you don't mind calling a turn bet. Therefore you give up too much by not capping the flop to give him incorrect odds to draw on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing my point. He could have a 5-out draw, and although it might not be likely, I still want him to fold. The pot is big and I want to win it; I don't want to get called anymore. When it's to me on the flop for 3-bets the pot is almost 25 SBs and I have a chance to induce a turn bet that I can use to leverage a raise into the field on the turn. My first concern in a pot this big is protecting my hand.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is big and I want to win it; I don't want to get called anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is normally a good idea, and normally something that maximizes your e.v. But in this case (assuming you have the best hand), my point is that you do want to get called, since the most likely scenario is that your opponents are drawing so thinly that they only take a very tiny portion of the pot.

[James Boston]

It's from Seinfeld, but I'm not sure what it has to do with the post.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
But in this case (assuming you have the best hand), my point is that you do want to get called, since the most likely scenario is that your opponents are drawing so thinly that they only take a very tiny portion of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, you're saying you don't believe there is a weak draw out there, just a hopeless one like a pair hoping to spike a set or a dominated hand. My point is that the pot is big enough where my willingness to gambool is nil, so I want basically any draw out. Diff'rent strokes.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is that the pot is big enough where my willingness to gambool is nil, so I want basically any draw out. Diff'rent strokes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understandable. Your line is probably the best anyway after a bit of thought. While mine may raise my e.v. a little bit (if at all), yours lowers your s.d. by a bigger bit.

[StellarWind]

jrobb has been trying to say something important, but no one is listening.

The odds are very high on this flop that the final owner of this pot is settled. When you are ahead they average very few outs. When you are behind (e.g. AA) it's just too bad.

The kind of very loose players who could have decent draws on this flop are far, far more likely to have some piece of trash.

What is the correct strategy for playing such a hand? It's not to knock people out. Angling to knock out the 74 gutshot is actually a variation on fearing monsters under the bed.

You should checkraise the flop to trap the field. You want as many people as possible to call as many bets as possible. When you average over all the possible hands they might hold and call a bet with, soaking them for two bets is much better than forcing them out. They simply don't have the outs to pay two bets to see the turn. What's bad for them is good for you.

Having bet the flop, you should consider what a check-reraise means on this board. Terminal stupidity is possible (KJ?? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif) but the obvious answer is that your plan for world domination has suffered a setback. 66 and 33 are the only sensible hands so you have to consider that he might have them.

I don't see a lot of value in capping a possible set when there is a fair chance that I can't even beat UTG+1.

[Evan]

I haven't read all the replies so I'm sorry if this has been beat to death already.

Isn't this an easy flop c/r? UTG+1 will almost certainly bet the flop, there's no draw on the board and there's no real turn card that could scare you (except for a 6 or 3 i guess, maybe) incase soemhow it gets checked through.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
You should checkraise the flop to trap the field

[/ QUOTE ]

For the record I has not read StellarWind's response before I wrote my post. So if anyone would like to congradulate me on posting the same flop play as he suggested I'd gladly acept.

[Danenania]

/Golf clap.

[DeeJ]

Obviously not Pennypacker or Vandelay, as it is in Sweden.

Got it now /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[James Boston]

For the bonus point:

What was Jerry's alias?