More bubble hands, heads up against another small stack.

[rachelwxm]

Here is another hand I played last night at party 50 SNG. It started off well, a few multiway all in earlier left us 2 small stacks against two big stacks. It’s bubble time again! I was in bb this hand.
UTG Button Sb Bb (hero) 3538 5038 594 830 (blind 100/200)
UTG and Button both fold, and Sb min raised to 400 and I saw hole cards 94o.
Should I put him all in or it’s time to let go?

I know I have to call with any two if he have 2bb, how is the fact that we are both short stack on the bubble changed anything?

Another very similar hand earlier at 30 SNG. Almost the same situation.
UTG Button Sb Bb (hero) 1785 4980 640 595 (blind 100/200)
Folded to sb he pushed, and I have 96s. Call??

Also, what’s the general line of thoughts when there are two or three short stacks at the bubble and you are one of them. Should you fight each other fiercely while trying to stay away form big stack?

Any thoughts appreciated.

[rybones]

wow, two great hands!!!

I like these as they look almost the same, but I think they are really different.

In the first hand, notice that he only min raises. This makes it look like he is just taking a stab at the pot -- and maybe he is -- but I think he is hoping you will call or push all in. His min rase commits him to the pot. Imo he has something and you should fold.

In hand two, he pushes. This looks more to me like he is taking a stand with any two or two high cards at best. You are in the same situation as the other hand you posted. You will need to rely on fortunes fate sooner or later and it might as well be now as a double up on the next hand earns you less money than it will the next hand. Also, you are likely in a race where you are not all that much of a dog right now. plus, you have at least an outside shot at a straight here, where in the other hand you can only hope pairs.

As always, these are just my thoughts and comments are always welcome.

Ryan

[rybones]

p.s. what did you do? How was my read? The more I have thought about these hands, The more interested I am in knowing the results.

Ryan

[rachelwxm]

I will keep it secrete for a while just to keep you waiting. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[rybones]

ooh la la! are teasing me? my guess is I am way too old for you

Ryan

[hhboy77]

first off, rachel i want to say that you should stay in the 50 dollar tournament range, because i play the 100s and i don't want you in my games.

as for your hands, i think there's another factor that should be under consideration. you mention the blinds but not how many hands will pass before they increase again. although, this may seem insignificant, i feel this should always be part of your thinking. basically, the sooner the blinds are going up the more likely you should take a stand.

for example, if you fold through and the blinds are staying the same for another round. it's conceivable that 530 is enough to steal at the 100/200 level. furthermore, if you double up to 1060 and the blinds go up to the 150/300 level, you still can't sit a round.

in this one you're hand is pretty awful and your pot odds aren't quite as good as the second. it's real close either way.

the second one i feel is a call, because of pot odds. you're getting just better than 2-1 on your money. as the sb, i push with any 2 that are certainly close to average and definitely any 2 if i think there's a chance you fold.

just my thoughts. cheers.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
first off, rachel i want to say that you should stay in the 50 dollar tournament range, because i play the 100s and i don't want you in my games.


[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry it gonna be a while considering the fact one month ago I did not even know what SNG means. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I am extremely happy about the profitability of 30+3 SNG right now. I want to thank everybody on this board for good work, the strategy, the nice spreadsheet, and lots of good stuff about bubble, etc.
IMO SNG shows how beautiful math really is. Yes we all know that in school, but in $$?

Good play.

[tallstack]

I would say that hand #1 is likely a fold for me here and #2 is likely a call.

In hand #1 you will be left with t630 if you fold and you will have to put in t100 on the next hand. Not a great situation, but you still have a few hands left. Also, the SB will have t794 and have to post the BB before you do in the next round (which may increase to t300 by then). I think that the pressure is still on him if you let this one go.

In hand #2 you will be left with t395 if you fold and have to put in t100 on the next hand. Here you will see the BB next round before the SB does and the target is still firmly attached to your back. I also think that your 96s has a lot more potential to win then 94o.

In terms of general short stack play, I do not worry about taking on the big stack. Every one has you covered anyways and the big stacks will often take a shot at busting you with marginal hands since you really don't hurt them if they lose. I would watch out for the medium stack raises in front of a big stack. Other than that, as a small stack I look for situations where I can get it HU. I hate getting involved in a multiway pot with everyone having me covered.

Dave S

[rachelwxm]

just dont want to let result influrence the judgement. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

It seems that in the first situation, especially if the blinds aren't going up too soon, you still have the opportunity to be the first one in the pot on a subsequent hand, giving you steal equity with your 530 remaining chips (after posting SB). Plus, you do not have great pot odds as it is only 1.25x your remaining stack. The problem to me seems that with your 94o you can almost count on being a dog in this hand with marginal pot odds.

Ok, in hand #2 the situation is *completely* different it seems b/c the bot is bigger and your stack is shorter. (Also, your hand is SUITED /images/graemlins/wink.gif ) The pot is now over 2x your stack and your stack will be almost non-existent after posting the SB if you fold in the situation that you face. So, even if you are a huge dog with your hand, I think it is at least less -EV than folding.

Ok, so I probably have less experience than you do at SNGs, so feel free to bash my ideas or point out my idiotic mistakes.

[rachelwxm]

Thanks all for insightful analysis. Yugoslavian, were you on that table?
Anyway, hand 2 first, I did call and hit my flush against K5o. He just did not believe I made that call! Lot’s of words exchanged after that, and my reply was “ I have to”. Maybe that set a fierce image to the remaining two big stacks, I was rarely bluffed after that. And I eventually went heads up against one other guy with 3000/5000 stacks and took it all!

Now that I was pumped up, I decided to take my chance at 50 buy in. I don’t know if I was influenced by hand 2(talking about autocorrelation of games), I decide to call hand1 the min raise and toss it as non of my cards paired up. A few hands later, I doubled up while my mid pair sustained heat from two over cards, but he almost tripled up when his pocket Kings were good. Well, I exited no.4, adding another bad mark on my short 50 SNG history. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

I do appreciate that seems most of the people agree hand 2 is easier call than 1. hhboy, I do start to pay close attention to increase of blinds. I do feel uneasiness when I fall below 2.5bb, so next time I will try to all in with 72o right before the blind increases over the threshold!
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

Rachel,

I play 20+2 now after playing 10+1 for a couple of weeks with success. I went from 10+1 to 30+3 but when I had a bad run, I needed to regroup psychologically and realized that I really don't need to be in any hurry to take on the big dogs, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

So, I don't think I could have been at your table. I'm guessing someone had a screen name similar to The Yugoslavian?

I have been impressed with your grasp on math from lurking on ICM/ROI threads seemingly dominated by eastbay, AleoMagus, PrayingMantis, etc. After simple +,-,x,/, I got nothing!

Of course, the most important skill in no limit SNGs is probably being able to take a deep breath when you have correct odds or a good read and then pushing!

Your results for the second hand are very nice -- it is not easy to come from behind 3-handed/2-handed even if you are playing the best poker at the table.

Your approach to moving from 30+3 to 50+5 seems to be the ideal recommendation among experienced 2+2ers. But don't focus on your very small 50+5 results, just focus on the quality of your play. Even if you are a -ROI player at 50+5 right now, you are offsetting your ROR with the 30+3 games and very well could be crushing the 50+5 very soon!

[NegativeEV]

I was contemplating a post in this string and tallstack described my thoughts exactly. I see these two hands as pretty different scenarios, and I think tallstack's post illustrates why (and gives what I think are the right plays). In the second hand you are better off taking your 40/60 shot now when winning would be meaningful (rather than take a 50/50 shot two hands later when winning is much less helpful).

Question for rachelwxm- what are the ICM results if you assume you are against top 40% hands? What about top 25%?

[rachelwxm]

I made that comment cause you said my cards were "suited". /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

Oh, you mention that you had 96s in your original post I think. I was being sarcastic to a degree b/c people often overvalue suited cards too much. But, when you have 96 and probably need to call an all in, ever little bit helps!