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ngkent
09-30-2004, 11:59 AM
Looking into this one...Down HUGE today because of Viox...but still makes considerable cash flow, huge dividend, big stock buy back program...only thing I can't get around is lawsuit potential...what does everyone think?

Ray Zee
09-30-2004, 01:21 PM
such a huge company, lawsuit potential might not be relevant too much. buying opportunity for sure. how can it not be. of course market risk is another thing with the election year stuff.

adios
09-30-2004, 01:40 PM
I wouldn't buy today but that's just me. If I was inclined to buy I'd buy when the volume slowed down and play it for a 10-15% bounce. That's just me though and I can't prove that's the right way to go. I'm not a techniciam but my experience is that stocks that get unexpected bad news do put in lows, rally, and then test the lows. Unscientific advice at best /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Also EPS supposed to be lowered by $.50 to $.60 a share from TV reports. Might affect divy.

Ray Zee
09-30-2004, 06:29 PM
adios, that does tend to be true. but it is hard to find that low. it doesnt coincide with the reduced volume enought to get it right often , at least for me. you know more so maybe have a better feel for that stuff.
but throught out my following the markets, these big stocks that get set back come back just because the setback is smaller than percieved. and they have the resources to make it happen. where the smaller companies many times just dissappear.
this doesnt apply to companies that have one product and find themselves with giant class action suits. they are shorts. like john manville was and halliburton before the war. but i held onto my halliburton through it all which was stupid as i could have done well trading it. it was so obvious what was going to happen with that company even a fool could have made money if he could separate his heart from what was the light.

blendedsuit
09-30-2004, 08:33 PM
case in point, phillip morris

adios
10-01-2004, 12:46 AM
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adios, that does tend to be true. but it is hard to find that low.

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Amen.

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it doesnt coincide with the reduced volume enought to get it right often , at least for me. you know more so maybe have a better feel for that stuff.

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Honestly I don't have any great insight and I would tend to do a lot better with companies I have much more knowledge about than MRK because I would have a better idea about when things got to be cheap. I've seen so many people get burned though on buying on the first day that the bad news breaks that I refrain from it totally. I suppose in the long run though it wouldn't matter all that much if MRK was stupid cheap here. I defer to the market on this one though because I honestly do not know all that much about their prospects.

Nemesis
10-02-2004, 03:17 AM
I'm in pharmacy school and drugs are my specialty... i had over 60% of my tuition in merck so this bad news sucked, but with that said they have a second generation cox-2 inhibitor in trials, and already on the market in some other countries. I believe they will bounce back from this, and continue to be a very stable company, i think this is a good time to buy.

Ray Zee
10-02-2004, 09:37 AM
never have a big % of anything in what you dont control. but good luck.

Nemesis
10-03-2004, 01:33 AM
very old investment my dad made for me when i was young. Wasn't a crushing loss, but unfortunate never the less.

plj8624
10-04-2004, 03:26 AM
I work for an investor who owns 7200 shares of MRK and was using some shares as collateral for a loan. He has gotten two margin calls in the last few years. I don't like what I see for the future either. No new drugs in the pipeline, they were forced to abandon some drugs that looked like they might be promising. Their best drug is going off patent in 2006 and now their second best drug has been recalled. Earnings are going to suffer badly in my opinion and I don't see them being able to stabilize them anytime soon. Maybe if they keep screwing up long enough they can get bought by Pfizer or Johnson & Johnson. A shame for what was formerly one of America's truly great companies.