AKo

[Guy McSucker]

Party $5/10 6-max, currently five handed. AKo in small blind.

Three limp. I raise, all call. Five to the flop.

Flop: Jh 8h 3d. I have no hearts or diamonds!

I check. BB checks. UTG checks. CO bets, Button raises, I fold.

Comments anyone?

Guy.

[Scotch78]

Ten small bets in the pot, so you're getting 11-1 or better on a bet/call. 4 clean outs and let's say .5 outs for the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif & K/images/graemlins/heart.gif makes you a 10-1 dog, so you want to see the turn. First off, you're the PFRer. Second, you can't risk giving a free card to flush draws. Third, a call won't make anyone fold. Go ahead and lead this flop.

Scott

[Trix]

routine.

[Guy McSucker]

Scott,

My first instinct is always to bet out when I've raised preflop with AK. However, I decided against it here for lots of reasons:

- it's very unlikely I'm winning against four opponents here

- I can't clean up any A or K outs that aren't already clean

- nobody will fold a hand that currently beats mine

A reason to bet is that someone with a single heart might fold so the backdoor flush possibility is reduced, but that's quite a parlay and probably not worth a whole small bet.

I am willing to be convinced I should bet, though...

Guy.

[Scotch78]

Do you agree that calling one bet is pretty much mandatory given your odds? If so, then betting is preferable to check-calling unless you know you'll be raised. Did you?

Scott

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you agree that calling one bet is pretty much mandatory given your odds? If so, then betting is preferable to check-calling unless you know you'll be raised.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why is betting preferable to check-calling here?

I think it's very unlikely this flop gets checked around. Does that change anything for you?

Guy.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is betting preferable to check-calling here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure how to answer this better than I did in my first reply, and I'm rereading Hold'em Poker at the moment, so I'll give you a little quote from it:

"If your hand is worth a call or almost worth a call if you check, and someone else bets, then it is better to bet yourself (semi-bluff) if you have little fear of a raise and there is some chance you will win right then" (p. 49).

I think the long-term cost of checking a non-scary flop after you raised pre-flop balances the decreased chance of winning it outright.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's very unlikely this flop gets checked around. Does that change anything for you?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but not enough.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

"If your hand is worth a call or almost worth a call if you check, and someone else bets, then it is better to bet yourself (semi-bluff) if you have little fear of a raise and there is some chance you will win right then" (p. 49).


[/ QUOTE ]

There is no chance I'll win it on the flop. None. Zip. Nada. And although I'm not confident I'll be raised, I wouldn't say there was "little chance".

The reasons you gave in your first post were to avoid giving a free card to a flush draw, and because I was the preflop raiser. The fact I'm the preflop raiser means nothing here, in my opinion: they're all expecting me to bet anyway, so won't give me particular credit for anything other than "a preflop raising hand" if I bet. The free card thing is valid, but I believe the benefit of checking and observing the action outweigh this, especially because I don't think the flop will be checked through very often, and of course a flush draw will call anyway; may even raise.

I also don't think I make money from a bet here when people call, since I don't think I have the best hand.

I think we could do with some input from others here... fingers crossed...

Guy.

[Scotch78]

Agreed, the fact that you are the pre-flop raiser means nothing in THIS hand. But from an opponent's point of view there is no reason for you to check this flop, it's not scary. By checking here you take away there reason to call when you have a premium PP or do get hit by the flop. That's much more costly than one bet on this hand.

Scott

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
if you have little fear of a raise and there is some chance you will win right then

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this part true for his hand ?

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
By checking here you take away there reason to call when you have a premium PP or do get hit by the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving them too much credit.

Evem if it was so, wouldnt it be better to just bet a percentage of your AK hands in this spot then, since you are that because you check it this time, then they will fold next time ?

[Benjamin]

I think the line you took is good in this scenario. 4 opponents, out of position, complete whiff on the flop, no chance everyone will fold. No sense in spewing bets, especially if the chance of a raise is decent, which it is at a lot of 5/10 6-max tables.

B.

[samdash]

It is very rare that everyone will fold on the flop, but I will bet anyway. Even if you don't win it immediately quite often enough to make a bet profitable for that purpose alone, you will sometimes only be called. Once you see the turn card you can decide what to do based on how many people called you. If you get heads up you might bet again and then check the river with a good chance of being best. If I am raised on the flop I will often fold immediately unless I'll be heads up with one other player or its a rainbow board. Basically, getting 11 to 1 on your initial flop bet, I think its a good investment to make that will occasionally win you the pot in some way.

Also - against some more observant opponents (if they exist?) betting the flop here could get you more action in the future when you actually have a big pair.

[Stork]

I think I might call because the pot is giving you good odds to draw to an A or K for top pair on this not too threatening board.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
It is very rare that everyone will fold on the flop, but I will bet anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I fire away w/ a missed AKo on the flop most times. And I don't think it would be a big mistake to do so here, especially considering meta-game stuff. But the check in this particular instance looks slightly better to me given your position, # of opponents and slightly coordinated board.

[ QUOTE ]
If I am raised on the flop I will often fold immediately unless I'll be heads up with one other player or its a rainbow board.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this instance I'd definitely call a raise if I had bet out. Not rainbow, but not threatening enough for me to fold getting 15:1 or better.

[ QUOTE ]
Also - against some more observant opponents (if they exist?) betting the flop here could get you more action in the future when you actually have a big pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any observant opponent will know before long that I don't have to have a pair to bet the flop. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

B.