Short stack on the bubble facing a smart big stack, all in for value?

[rachelwxm]

This situation happened last night I did not think I played well. Party 50+5.
Stack size UTG Button (Hero) Sb Bb (5000 800 2000 2200) and UTG seems to know to take position stack advantage well. And he is all in! I suspect he moved in with any two and I had K3o. Your move?

[stripsqueez]

i fold regardless of the size of the blinds or who raised - if you cant find better than K3o to invest some chips at this stage your not doing it right

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[rybones]

for me, K,3 is still not good enough to call. However, I am not sure about your read. I do agree you need to take a stand at some point, but your only out here is a K. The 3 does you no good. Also, when I have that type of chip lead, I will push but not necessarily with any two utg. Remember he is not playing your stack on this hand as you have no blind to give him. He is playing stack that would nearly chop him in half. I would put him on A,any OR K,9 or better. Either of these hands are trouble for you. With the blinds such as they are I say take your stand the next hand with any two when you can be first in.

Alas, these are just my thoughts and comments are always welcome.

Ryan

[rachelwxm]

I was grinded to death since I lost 33% percent of chance of stealing and K3 looks really good to me at that particular game. But I am glad you agree that is is my cards to be blame and not my skills. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
With the blinds such as they are I say take your stand the next hand with any two when you can be first in.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with your comment, and I am interested to hear your thoughts about going in UTG with anytwo, including 72o?

[tallstack]

You didn't mention the blind size, but I think that it is a fold here for any blind size.

A couple of things work against you here. As rybones said,
[ QUOTE ]
Remember he is not playing your stack on this hand as you have no blind to give him. He is playing stack that would nearly chop him in half.

[/ QUOTE ]
he should have some sort of hand here. You are scarcely a favorite over a random hand, and a dog to any range of push hands. From an ICM point of view you will need to win this pot about 50% to break even on $equity (not knowing what the blinds were), so he would have to be pushing every hand for this to be close.

The other big negative here is that if the big stack was pushing too often then the calling standards of the blinds would be lower. If you call, they will be getting good odds on their call as well. Also, from the point of view of a blind caller, you would have to beat their hand and the initial raiser's hand for them to finish out of the money. They would be almost freerolling if they have any decent hand here.

Dave S

[rachelwxm]

blind 100/200

[rybones]

you asked for my thoughts on pushing with any two from utg on the next hand (even 72o), so here are my thoughts:

Yes, even 7,2o. The reality is that on the following hand (when you are the BB) you will be in for 1/4 of your stack and someone will push you in for all of it. In that situation, you need a better hand to call than you need to raise. So Raise when you are utg, while you can. First, the likelyhood is that you will not have 7,2o. Secondly, you will be raising from utg so the others may suspect you actually have a hand. Alas, you get the blinds and that will help. However, you are still in trouble.

On the other hand, they may suspect you are pushing with any hand as you will be in for 1/4 of your stack the next hand. This means they will call you with any hand and then you have a race which is about as good as you can ask for. This is especially true as race will likely be with the big stack. The other two will not call you as they don't want to risk their money when the big stack is behind them. Alas, imo it will go: you push, fold, fold, big stack calls with any two and the race is on. Now you are playing against the fortunes. However, if you win you have a shot at the money. Whereas if you just take down the blinds you are still in pretty bad shape. you want the big stack to call and you need to get lucky.

Now, if one of the other two calls or raises, you are likely dead, but then if you didn't push you were likely dead anyway.

So, there is my thought process. As usual, comments are welcome.

Ryan

[rachelwxm]

That is very illuminating post. I am convinced that you are a winner at this level. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[rybones]

Actually your post was a great opportunity to think about bubble play. I only wish I were successful at that level. my bankroll only allows me to play the 10+1's but I am winning there and hoping to move up. I hope you are doing well there though. I would love to play with you. come the the 2+2 private tourney on sunday at poker stars: 13:00 EDT tournament tab, private tab, password = twoplustwo.

hope to see you there and thanks for the compliment.

Ryan

[rachelwxm]

unfortunately I do not have a ps account yet, do you think it is worthwile to get one especially doing that I have to drop to 30 SNG if I pull money out form Party? /images/graemlins/cool.gif
My strategy right now is to play at 50s to lose all the money I win at 30s. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[rybones]

I must admit I really do like poker stars more than pp. Additionally, view your bankroll as your banroll regardless of where it is at. If you have 1000 at pp and you take 200 and put it into netellar and then into ps, no one will charge you money and you still have a total bankroll of 1000. That said, if you don't think you will play at ps often then it may not be worth it.

gl

Ryan

[rachelwxm]

Do u feel PP has worse competitions thus more profitable? I have no idea bout ps since I never played there, maybe I should just for the reason of getting into 2+2 private table. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[rybones]

I do think more players = worse play = more money for you at pp. That said, I also found that for me it mean more varience. I also found that I prefer the ability to be lag earlier and I just could not play that stly at pp 10+1 level. Additionally, I am finding that I still see bad play but also can play games against 2+2ers and really hone my game. Also, I am -- at least in part -- as much concerned with experimenting as I am with winning. The structure of ps allows me to experiment during a single tournament and not put that entire tournament at risk. Alas, that is why I am currently playing only at stars. That said, I beleive that at the 50+5 level of pp you start with more chips and the play is likely similar to the 10+1 at stars so pp may be the place for you.

Ryan.

OK, my real opinion: yea, put a little in ps so you can play with the 2+2 folks.

[rybones]

so before this thread loses steam, do tell!!!

ryan

[rachelwxm]

this one i already revealed, I was blinding to death. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif u mean the other one right?