QQ w/ 4747

[John White]

I'm wondering whether it's a +EV move to call down these situations. I'm facing at least 2 BB with the potential for raises. Comments?


PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero folds.

River: (7.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 9.75 BB, between MP2 and BB.</font>

[Bez]

Good lay-down. Even if BB has nothing (unlikely) MP2 certainly has calling on this board.

[Piiop]

I think this is a bad fold, unless you have very specific reads on these players. Many players will bluff bet a scare card into a preflop raiser, putting the hero on just overcards. He also could be betting a pocketpair, or just an A-high.

MP2 doesn't have to have anything to be calling here. If he had a 4 he probably would've raise the flop or the turn. If he had a 7, he would raise - not call. He could easily have an A or a pocket pair also. Many players at these limits like to call down with an A on boards like this hoping for a split.

You will be facing 2 BB to call down, but there's no danger of being raised. You're last to act so you can't get checkraised. If the BB bets the river and MP2 raises, it's an easy fold and you don't even have to spend the extra BB. As a bonus, if you spike a Q, you get to raise the both of them. If you were inbetween players, this would be a concern, but since you have position - it's not.

[John White]

Ahh, opposite, conflicting advice! Interesting comment on my position, though. You're right about it being an easier fold in the face of a raise or raise on the river.

[Student_Of_Games]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering whether it's a +EV move to call down these situations. I'm facing at least 2 BB with the potential for raises. Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

As far as the possiblity of raises go, it's possible but nobody's shown any tendency to raise except you. If anybody had a 4 they should've bet it on the flop, but that didn't happen so the 7 is more likely.

Working it out (if my math is correct) you have a pot share of approximately 27% on the turn. If BB has the seven (and at this point I'm doubting if MP2 has anything, I'm thinking he's calling with one or more overcards hoping to hit the river) then you're working a two out draw (which is much less than 27% to hit).

1.44 BB of the pot on the turn was put in by you. If you fold you lose your 1.44 BB, if you call and he's bluffing you win potentially 5.75 (but probably more). If you reraised instead of folding (assuming they both call) then you get 11.75 BB, a bet on the river with two calls gives you 14.75 BB of which 4.4375 BB were put in by you. 14.75/4.4375 = 3.32, which means you've put in about a third of the pot already. With 3 players in the pot, if you estimate that it's at least a 1/3 chance that he's bluffing and you're right you win the whole shebang, if you're wrong you lose your 1/3rd. So at best I'd say it's a break even proposition.

So what all this is trying to say in a roundabout way is, if you've got no experience with this player and how likely he is to bluff at a big pot with a whole slew of scare cards, it seemed like a good lay down to me. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[John White]

Hmmm... There's dead money in the pot and potentially three guys calling down, so I see that there's part of 1.25BB that I'm giving away, plus the 1/3 that I've bet already. But doesn't that mean that both opponents have to be bluffing with less than AA or KK more than 1/3 of the time for this play to be correct?

A turn raise is an interesting idea even if I'm beat as long as I don't get re-raised. If they're passive enough to check the river with the best hand, I can check behind unimproved for a net loss of 0 (vs. just calling down), but I can get an extra 2 bets if a Q comes. Wait, no, that's the same money as a turn call river raise on a Q. I don't see an advantage to raising the turn.

[John White]

Post-advice hand...



PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 11.25 BB, between CO and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Hero (11.25 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has Kd Kh (two pair, kings and eights).
CO has 9c Ah (two pair, eights and twos).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.25 BB. </font>

[Ajax410]

I absolutely call here - if there were two pair on the board, I'd be betting with many hands - a pocket pair higher than 4's and Ace-high are entirely plausible here. You need to at least see a showdown as long as you're capable of ending betting rounds...