Stats for 10k .5/1 Hands - Please Comment

[Josh Harler]

Today I reached a milestone. I hit 10,000 .5/1 hands. .5/1 has been pretty profitable for me, but I'm sure there's room for improvement. Here are my PT stats:

Total Hands: 10,124
VP$IP: 23.26
VP$SB: 38.86
W$WSF: 29.08
BB/100: 4.24
PFR: 6.98

Is there anything else I should add to get useful feedback? My bankroll has exceeded the 300BB for the 1/2 level, and I've started playing a 1/2 table alongside my .5/1 tables, with limited success. I'm sure my 1/2 results will get better as the odds start to even out. I've hit several runs of terrible suckouts in this level so far.

Any comments or suggestions you can give me will be appreciated. Thanks!

[btspider]

my stats (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=965657&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)

i posted too much info on purpose so I can just reference it for these topics /images/graemlins/smile.gif

also post your aggression factor, folded to river bet, won at showdown.

your VPIP from SB looks high.. as was mine. my other stats are fairly in line, but there is always some variance involved with all the stats.

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
your VPIP from SB looks high..

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think that # is okay, it's his regular VPIP that look high -- and your PFR looks low.

I'd guess there's a good share of hands where you're limping when you should be folding or raising.

[gergery]

VPIP looks high. Preflop raise is low for that VPIP. SB looks fine. results are too good to last. just my two cents.

search for MS Sunshine posts

-greg

[Jimbobobb]

I'm surprised you guys think that 23% vpip is too high for the micro limits. When you constantly have 4 limpers in front of you, limping in with suited connectors and the like really does make a difference, both in money made and a few % of vpip.

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised you guys think that 23% vpip is too high for the micro limits. When you constantly have 4 limpers in front of you, limping in with suited connectors and the like really does make a difference, both in money made and a few % of vpip.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, although 23% is just a tad high.

[Jimbobobb]

It's going to be funny one day when I post my stats and see the responses to my vpip /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Piiop]

Your VPIP is maybe a little too high, but not a big deal at all - especially at .5/1.

Your VP$SB is too high and your PFR is too low.

[Josh Harler]

Thanks for all the input guys! Here's a few more stats:

Aggression
----------
Preflop: .37
Flop: .96
Turn: 1.11
River: 1.56
Total: .72

Folded to river bet: 56.97%
Won $ at showdown: 58.99%

I'm not very aggressive am I? /images/graemlins/frown.gif My VP$IP is high I think mainly because I like to see flops with suited connectors, sometimes even in EP. I also like suited Aces. I've been folding these more lately though and sticking to suited aces that can make a straight. I also tend to cold call with good hands rather than reraise preflop. I tend to just call the flop with a good hand with the intention of raising the turn. The exception to this is if I'm in LP and I'm trying to get a free card or if I have a good draw (4 flush or OESD).

I think my big problem is that I stay in pots too long, especially if there's been a raise or two preflop. I justify this by telling myself that I've already put in two or three SB, what's one more to see the turn? I think I might value backdoor draws too much when considering a call on the flop.

Here's my plan from here on out: I'm going to further restrict my starting hands, especially if there's been a raise before me. I'm going to start raising and reraising more preflop. Should I raise the flop more often with good hands, or should I wait until the turn for the raise? I'm also going to try to realize when I need to lay down my good, but not great hands.

Thanks again for your input!

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
It's going to be funny one day when I post my stats and see the responses to my vpip /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Won't suprise me, I've played with you before! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the input guys! Here's a few more stats:

Aggression
----------
Preflop: .37
Flop: .96
Turn: 1.11
River: 1.56
Total: .72

Folded to river bet: 56.97%
Won $ at showdown: 58.99%

I'm not very aggressive am I? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not at all! (FYI, don't include your preflop aggression when calculating the total aggression number).

[ QUOTE ]
I also tend to cold call with good hands rather than reraise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re-raise! Cold calling should be very infrequent.

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to just call the flop with a good hand with the intention of raising the turn. The exception to this is if I'm in LP and I'm trying to get a free card or if I have a good draw (4 flush or OESD).

[/ QUOTE ]

Or if you likely have the best hand. Bet/raise!

[ QUOTE ]
I think my big problem is that I stay in pots too long, especially if there's been a raise or two preflop. I justify this by telling myself that I've already put in two or three SB, what's one more to see the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if the pot+implied odds tell you to!

[ QUOTE ]
I think I might value backdoor draws too much when considering a call on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

About 1.5 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my plan from here on out: I'm going to further restrict my starting hands, especially if there's been a raise before me. I'm going to start raising and reraising more preflop. Should I raise the flop more often with good hands, or should I wait until the turn for the raise? I'm also going to try to realize when I need to lay down my good, but not great hands.

Thanks again for your input!

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet on the flop, bet on the turn, bet on the river! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[sluttysteve]

I think your VPIP/PFR are high/low.

For reference, my VPIP/PFR at 1/2 is around 14/8.5. Of course, I think my VPIP might be unnecessarily low, but 17-19 is what you want to shoot for, I think.

[Piiop]

Yeah, you need to be a lot more aggressive.

Also, I'm not quite sure on what the average number is, but I think your Folded To A River Bet % is high.

[Josh Harler]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, you need to be a lot more aggressive.

Also, I'm not quite sure on what the average number is, but I think your Folded To A River Bet % is high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm working on being more aggresive. So far so good! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I mainly fold to a river bet when I raised on the flop for the free look at the river. I see no point in calling down if I don't have a pair or even Ace high.

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
folded to river bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I find this stat very hard to use since if you look at the number of times it comes up it makes it change a ton over a large amount of hands since it doesn't seem to come up a ton.

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
results are too good to last

[/ QUOTE ]

At this level? You can obtain over 5 BB/100 long term.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
folded to river bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I find this stat very hard to use since if you look at the number of times it comes up it makes it change a ton over a large amount of hands since it doesn't seem to come up a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree, but i think its semi-useful in conjuction with won at showdown. if someone wins over 60% of showdowns and has a high fold at river, they might not pay that 'one more bet' often enough. it is one of those stats that is only useful if its very far off.

[bisonbison]

Guys, Rain is right, folded to river bet is an essentially worthless stat.

look at "when folds" street by street if you want to see tightness, then compare and contrast with won $ at showdown to see how that tightness is playing out. If your won $ @ showdown is higher than 55% in these loose games you are either running well or folding too much.

[LikesToLose]

[ QUOTE ]
I think my big problem is that I stay in pots too long, especially if there's been a raise or two preflop. I justify this by telling myself that I've already put in two or three SB, what's one more to see the turn? I think I might value backdoor draws too much when considering a call on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are both specific numbers. Pot odds/Implied Odds will tell you how far to go with a hand. Figure out how much has to be in a pot if you have x number of discounted outs. At higher levels this needs to be calculated and not based on a feeling. This is an absolute must at the highest levels, so start learning it at the lower levels.

Also, the amount you specifically have put into a pot is completely irrelevant.

A back door flush is worth 1.5 outs. That is the exact number it should be valued at.

Good luck moving up.

[detruncate]

If I may interject... your stats suggest that you don't yet have a good grasp on the theory behind the decisions you are making. Don't worry about it. Everyone starts there. But it's not enough to just 'be more aggressive' or 'raise more pf' if you don't know why you should be doing these things.

Stat anyalysis is fun, but people too often look for specifics they can fix. Am I too loose? That depends. Why are you playing the hands you're playing? How good are you post flop? What is your competition like? Are you running hot or cold? Are we talking 10,000 hands or 100,000?

The point is that stats can only suggest general patterns of play, and the pattern you generate through your individual game decisions (while too complicated to break down into specific 'problems' due our inability to look at anything in particular out of the context of your game as a whole) can suggest certain underlying assumptions.

Everything you've posted points to the fact that you should be:

a) reading a good book or two
b) posting lots of hands, even some of the ones you think you are playing correctly
c) commenting on hands played by other people -- the debate that ensues will help you examine the decisions you are making.

Closing a few gaps in your thought process will make a world of difference. The numbers will reflect this change as you progress. Don't focus on trying to generate 'optimal' numbers. Focus on making good decisions. You'll probably be surprised how much your game changes after few tens of thousands of hands have rolled by.

Good luck.

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
results are too good to last.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. 4 BB/100 seems pretty sustainable for .5/1 -- once you move up, of course not.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised you guys think that 23% vpip is too high for the micro limits. When you constantly have 4 limpers in front of you, limping in with suited connectors and the like really does make a difference, both in money made and a few % of vpip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, I dunno. I'll take lower variance, and avoid pushing small edges. I don't trust my post-flop play with marginal hands quite enough yet to be playing that many hands. It's a matter of what you want out of playing -- maximum profit, or safe profit? I personally think most people are better off going with a 17-19% VPIP, but I can't deny that you could probably up your BB/100 by .5 or so by playing more marginal hands, assuming you play them well.

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the input guys! Here's a few more stats:

Aggression
----------
Preflop: .37
Flop: .96
Turn: 1.11
River: 1.56
Total: .72

Folded to river bet: 56.97%
Won $ at showdown: 58.99%

[/ QUOTE ]

Your aggression is way too low. Push harder -- more of your calls should be raise or fold. There is a place for calling (even coldcalling) but it should be relatively rare compared to folding or raising.

Your Won $ at Showdown is too high. It sounds counterintuitive, to say you should be winning at showdown LESS, right? The idea is that there are probably more pots that you should be winning, but you're folding to someone's river bet/raise and basically giving them a big pot for the price of one bet.

For example, you're heads-up on the river. Your opponent bets out, after check-calling your bets on the flop and turn. His sudden aggression makes you estimate your chances of having the best hand at roughly 10%. So nine times out of ten, if you call his bet, you're going to lose! So folding makes sense -- you're almost certainly beat, and don't want to look foolish...

Thing is, if the pot is 12 BB (counting his bet) at the time, you only need to win one in TWELVE times for calling to be "break-even" -- anything better than that, and you're going to slightly profit over the long term.

If you've read SSH, this is why Ed Miller (Noted Poker Authority) suggests calling on the river with marginal hands rather than folding. For example, the board is A739J, no straight or flush possibilities. You have QQ. Four other players saw the flop, but only one goes to the river with you. You have second pair. You should bet or call his bet. Checking or folding is a mistake -- while your hand will not be best a MAJORITY of the time, it will be good enough of the time to show substantial profit.

Point being, call a few more river bets when you think you MAY be beat, but aren't sure. Big laydowns are usually not helpful in limit poker. Pay people off a little more.

Don't get carried away though /images/graemlins/wink.gif

And as always, post hands on the forums for review.

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
The numbers will reflect this change as you progress. Don't focus on trying to generate 'optimal' numbers. Focus on making good decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even better advice. Goot post detrunc.

[Josh Harler]

Again, thanks everybody for your replies. For the record, I own and have read the following books (in this particular order): HEPFAP, TOP, SSH. I've read all of them once and I'm starting SSH again.

Here are some more stats:

When Folds:
No Fold %: 12.87
Preflop %: 70.12
Flop %: 8.49
Turn %: 5.25
River %: 3.28

Does it look like I'm folding to the river bets too much? Usually, I make crying calls even if I know I'm beat, if it's for one more bet (god I hate when they raise the river). Most of my river folds are due to my flush or straight draws not filling out.

Like I said, I believe my biggest leak is not correctly calculating my pot odds when I have backdoor draws. I understand the concept of pot and implied odds, I just sometimes don't use them. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif Shame on me.

After my first reading of SSH, I tried to play with the mentality of "if it's worth a call, it's worth a raise". I kept with that and it worked great, right up until I hit a 100 BB downswing. After that, I was quite gunshy, so I became a calling station again (once again, shame on me). I'm out of that state now, and I do raise my good hands now, I tend to just call with marginal hands though. I also tend to not bet my hands on the river if there's a straight/flush draw completed on the river in fear of a check raise. I'm trying to get out of this habit too as I'm sure I'm missing many profitable bets.

Like I said, I'm rereading SSH, so I'm sure I'll gain more knowledge from that. I'll make an effort to post some hands that I have questions about and join in the discussions on others' hands.

Thanks for all the feedback, you've all been very helpful.