Party 10+1 blinds 250/500 3 handed

[Eihli]

Seat 1: acumom1 ( $2200 )
Seat 4: W00lygimp ( $4380 )
Seat 10: mrg5556 ( $1420 )

mrg goe's all-in on the button
folded to wooly in the bb with 56o
action?

tell me if this math is right
2170:950
2.28:1
so you'll win 1 in 3.28
1/3.28 = x/100
3.28x = 100
x = 29.58

so if you win more than 29.58% of the time, you should call?

If so:
pokenum -h 6c 5h - jd td
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 5h 550171 32.13 1143093 66.76 19040 1.11 0.327
Jd Td 1143093 66.76 550171 32.13 19040 1.11 0.673

pokenum -h 6c 5h - 4c 4h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 5h 795652 46.47 878747 51.32 37905 2.21 0.476
4c 4h 878747 51.32 795652 46.47 37905 2.21 0.524

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=535378
pokenum -h 6c 5h - td th
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 5h 303268 17.71 1400923 81.82 8113 0.47 0.179
Td Th 1400923 81.82 303268 17.71 8113 0.47 0.821

pokenum -h 6c 5h - kh 9c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 5h 625834 36.55 1073683 62.70 12787 0.75 0.369
9c Kh 1073683 62.70 625834 36.55 12787 0.75 0.631

[neotope]

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 1: acumom1 ( $2200 )
Seat 4: W00lygimp ( $4380 )
Seat 10: mrg5556 ( $1420 )

mrg goe's all-in on the button
folded to wooly in the bb with 56o
action?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold without even thinking twice. If you fold you are still easily in the lead. If you double him up you are not in the lead.

[Eihli]

920:2100 against pretty much a random hand and if you lose you are still in great shape.

[ChrisV]

I'm not sure where you're getting those numbers from. It's 920 to call and if you call, the pot will be 1420+1420+250 = 3090. You have to be returned 920 from this pot to break even. 920/3090 = you have to win 29.77% of the time.

Versus two overcards you therefore have a slight advantage, but you may also bs vs. A6, K6 or an overpair. Underpairs are pretty unlikely (just because there aren't many of them).

I would guess that calling is very slightly -EV in chip terms, or maybe break-even. There are strategic issues here. When you have a stack that size, in my opinion you shouldn't call hoping to bust them. You're better off folding and then going allin on one or both of the next two hands. Both stacks will be scared of going out third so you should be able to bully them. I'd fold.

[Eihli]

dufman247: no
dufman247: wait
dufman247: 30% of the time
dufman247: you bust him
Woolygimp: more than that
Woolygimp: 35%
dufman247: i'm just being generous to the skeptics
dufman247: 30% you bust
dufman247: then you have a huge chip lead
dufman247: after that, you'll hit first 70% and 2nd 30%
Woolygimp: yea i got first
dufman247: .7*50 + .3*30
dufman247: EV = 44
dufman247: so .3 your ev is 44
dufman247: and the other 70% of the time
dufman247: you call and he wins
dufman247: everyone is about equal in chips stacks
dufman247: so .33*50 + .33*30 + .33*20
dufman247: .7 of the time your ev is 33
dufman247: so .3*44 + .7*33 is your ev of calling
Woolygimp: i asked
Woolygimp: do i call 920 to win 56% of the time
Woolygimp: and gave him my chip size
dufman247: calling is +ev of 36.3
Woolygimp: and he said not with that chip position
dufman247: now lets figure out ev of folding
dufman247: you fold and your down to 3880
dufman247: he's up to 2170
dufman247: so chips stacks are 3880, 2200, 2200
dufman247: about
dufman247: so lets say, being generous, 45% first, 35% second, 20% third
dufman247: .45*50 + .35*30 + .20*20
Woolygimp: ok well theres another factor
Woolygimp: in 10/15 blinds itd be a smart play
Woolygimp: but good players can easily win the tournament
Woolygimp: by stealing blinds
Woolygimp: its very bad being on the defensive
Woolygimp: meaning you should never call in that situation
Woolygimp: always bet/fold/raise
dufman247: folding is ev of +36.5



Ok, I thought it was an easy easy fold at first but if my math is right, it's a closer decision thatn it seems.

[Eihli]

920/3090 = 2170:920 = 2.28:1 = 29%, I guess I took the long way.

[ilya]

http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/matchup2.html

You may find this chart useful in making decisions of this sort.

[lastchance]

How good are your opponents? What kind of hands does Button make this play with? Is he a maniac, or weak-tight?

I actually call here, probably. Just don't like giving away a huge amount of blinds to someone with 3x BB. Unless you think you can outplay these guys later on, I call.

But folding is fine here. Unless they push with any 2 or something, you can fold without a second thought. You can call too, unless this guy hasn't raised all day.