Can I fold this river?

[spamuell]

I feel like I'm in a constant struggle between being a weak-tightie trying to save river bets and being an ATM. Just sat down, seen about 2 orbits, opponent has not done anything obviously out of line.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, CO (poster) folds, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

I probably can't fold this river, it's just that I was saying to myself on the turn "hmm, if he raises I'll have to call and hope he's overplaying AJ." Sometimes though, it's just like I forget how to play poker.

EDIT: I'm really not sure now, I think I may well be able to fold here.

[spamuell]

Can't believe I have to bump so soon but I think with the default settings this thread is already off the first page. I don't use the default settings though so if I'm wrong, will someone tell me how many threads there are on the first page?

[jordanx]

I'd call. Every once in awhile you'll win this vs. someone w/ KK, tie w/ AQ or some random head scratcher where you're thinking "wha?".

With no read I think it's safe to call here.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

if you don't think dude would raise anything less than AJ preflop, then sure, i guess.

you should probably just call for sanity reasons

[cnfuzzd]

I hate to say it, but i think i would give in and check call the river. No way do i want to fold to this assclown, but i also dont want to invest two bets to see his cards. Also, i would 3 bet AQs preflop here, but that is probably a little much.

peace

john nickle

[jordanx]

When I say, safe to call, I mean, you may very well be beaten here. But 10% of the time or more, time you will win this pot by calling.

[sfer]

I'd call there. Why didn't you checkraise the flop? Seems to me having a good position to shut out the field is a good reason for calling, rather than 3-betting, preflop.

[spamuell]

Why didn't you checkraise the flop? Seems to me having a good position to shut out the field is a good reason for calling, rather than 3-betting, preflop.

I thought betting out with the intention/hope of 3-betting was good as it would likely trap all the callers for one bet and then make them face two cold, which is the best of both worlds. Also it doesn't get through the times he has TT-KK and doesn't want to play. Why do you prefer the check-raise?

[James Boston]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, i would 3 bet AQs preflop here, but that is probably a little much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. You might want the BB and UTG to come along in case you make a really strong hand, but if a singleton ace or queen falls, you're going to have to protect that. So, keeping them in pre-flop only gains one big bet. That's the only reason I could see for just calling, and I don't think it's a strong enough reason to jusify it.

And no, I wouldn't fold to the river raise, although you're probably beat.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you prefer the check-raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

9+ SBs. The pot is getting on the big side.

[spamuell]

9+ SBs. The pot is getting on the big side.

Yeah, but I'm still not convinced a c/r is correct. If this play can get your opponents to put in 1sb and not see the turn, or 3sbs on the flop, you're golden. The pot's not that big that it's correct for them to call 3sb with the hands they'll be doing it with.

I definitely wouldn't say a bet 3-bet is clearly the best play, but I think it's better because your opponent almost definitely raises an ace here and it's likely a worse one and if he doesn't raise, it's fairly likely he has a hand he would have checked behind with (although this isn't always this case).

[onegymrat]

Perfect time for setting up the check-raise. You have a strong hand in first position with two suckers sandwiched between you and the pf raiser who acts last. If the ace hits, you must check-raise. You will often get good information also, like flush draws and another ace. You don't have the nuts so make your play to win the pot.

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]

I feel like I'm in a constant struggle between being a weak-tightie trying to save river bets and being an ATM.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen brother. Lately, I feel like I'm always doing something wrong.

As for you! Don't you fold that river. DON--....don't do it.

[James Boston]

I understand your thinking. However, I think the 2 players you want to fold will be MORE likley to call 2 cold with money already in the pot than they will if they get check-raised. Just a thought.

[spamuell]

I think the 2 players you want to fold will be MORE likley to call 2 cold with money already in the pot than they will if they get check-raised.

I agree. But if they want to call three bets on this flop, that's more than fine with me.

[spamuell]

As for you! Don't you fold that river. DON--....don't do it.

Maybe... you think he has AT? A lower pocket pair trying to push off an ace? I think this happens on the flop.

I folded because I didn't think an opponent who seemed sane could expect me to fold here.

[sfer]

The posted blind increases the likelihood of the villain having a medium suited Ace who expects a chop.

[BottlesOf]

I just don't like the precedent. It's unlikely you're good, but still...

[spamuell]

The posted blind increases the likelihood of the villain having a medium suited Ace who expects a chop.

So this means bet 3-betting the flop is better, right?

I'm willing to concede that I should call the river here but whatever I do I don't think it's a big mistake (bar reraising).

[jluker7]

Check Raise, gets out the other players, You want the pot... at this point its big enough to take, with your TPGK. That hand is better heads up, not 4 way.

BTW, Fold on river is bad. Even if you are beat, you get your read with a marginal hand.

Now you will always be in a guessing game, and he will be more likly to raise you. Knowing you will fold to 1 BB, for a 13BB pot.

[BottlesOf]

Yeah, it's not huge one way or the other EVwise.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]

BTW, Fold on river is bad. Even if you are beat, you get your read with a marginal hand.

Now you will always be in a guessing game, and he will be more likly to raise you. Knowing you will fold to 1 BB, for a 13BB pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah, that read is worth very little. I can have a million hands of him if I want to just by turning on my computer in the morning before I go to work and leaving PT open. (Sadly, my habit of oversleeping means that I don't do this nearly enough.) But the fact is that I can get a free read, this isn't reason enough to call.

[ QUOTE ]
Check Raise, gets out the other players, You want the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I think bet 3-betting is better, see my above posts.

[ QUOTE ]
at this point its big enough to take, with your TPGK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather that bad hands put more money in though without correct odds, which I think I can make them do a fair amount of the time. This is better on a rainbow board though as if someone has a flush draw this takes some of my equity, but it's still profitable most of the time, I would imagine.

[ QUOTE ]
TPGK. That hand is better heads up, not 4 way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather go to the turn with 4 players for 11BB than to the turn HU with 5BB. I haven't actually proved this is right though, it's just my feeling that the former is more profitable. Perhaps I am wrong but I'm going to bed now, I'll check tomorrow.

[jluker7]

[ QUOTE ]

Bah, that read is worth very little. I can have a million hands of him if I want to just by turning on my computer in the morning before I go to work and leaving PT open. (Sadly, my habit of oversleeping means that I don't do this nearly enough.) But the fact is that I can get a free read, this isn't reason enough to call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Right, everyone is doing this, so why are you asking us if its a fold? Use your stats on him...

[spamuell]

Right, everyone is doing this, so why are you asking us if its a fold? Use your stats on him...

Firstly, I didn't have any hands for this player other than the ones I'd been at the table with him for.

Secondly, I suppose I want to know how to play poker when I don't have a player's exact stats to hand.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
So this means bet 3-betting the flop is better, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

The 3-bet only works to drive out the other two if he raises you and there's no guarantee of that. With the pot size I prefer checkraising the much more likely flop autobet than hoping for a raise so my 3-bet can drive them out.

[jluker7]

[ QUOTE ]

Secondly, I suppose I want to know how to play poker when I don't have a player's exact stats to hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, so call, maybe win the pot. If not you have a read.

[nepenthe]

Just call and see if he is the type of player to bluff with a busted flush draw or whatever. With a compelling read, a fold may be correct but your hand is too strong here.

[jluker7]

" WHEN THE POT IS BIG DO NOT FOLD DECENT HANDS FOR ONE BET! Just stop doing it. " - Ed Miller (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=462860&amp;page=0&amp;view=co llapsed&amp;sb=7&amp;o=14)

I think this is one of those situations he is talking about.