Holding KK, three-flush (no draw) on flop -- call all-in?

[ThorGoT]

First round on a $100 + 9. I had KK (no spades), raised pre-flop. One caller. Flop comes three spades, nothing higher than a K. No straight draw that I remember. Opponent goes all in. Can't remember exact pot size before the all in, but it is insignificant in comparison to total stack (say, 100 before the all-in -- now 1050). Call or fold?

[Matt Finkelstein]

I'd fold it. You could argue that there's no way he'd bet out on the flush, and that he likely holds the A for the 4 flush. But without a read on the player, and the reverse psychology game theory factor, why risk it? It's not like you're pot committed.

[Sam T.]

I agree that a fold is in order. He could have a made non-nut flush, and is afraid you hold the ace, a set...in short lots of hands that you would not want to pay money to see. Sure it's a shame to give up on KK (almost as bad as raising with AA late in a MTT and taking down only the blinds), but it's early yet.

P.S. Sklansky has a section on playing monotone flops, but I can't remember whether it's in TOP, HFAP or TPFAP. Anyone?

[LinusKS]

Call.

The chance he has two suited cards is roughly .25, and the chance his cards match the board is less than .25, giving him a less than 1/16 chance of catching a flush here.

The range of hands someone will make this play with is quite a big larger than that - it includes flat out bluffs, top pair, best kicker, overpairs, and flush draws.

You also have to consider that a player who actually has a flush, may very well not make this play, since a flopped flush is a pretty powerful hand. He does not, after all, know what you have.

[stupidsucker]

FOLD. Its ok to make a bluff at this pot, but chances are he has one spade at least. If he does then he has a 35% chance to suck out right there. If he has a pair and a spade then it goes up. He also may already have a set and wants to protect it. You are beat so many different ways here either already or to a few draws.

What harm can it be to let it go? Worst case scenerio he has nothing but a small pair or is bluffing 100% with nothing, you call and he hits runner runner to beat you.. This is the worst feeling from early round play. JUST let it GO!

[LinusKS]

Actually, you know, it's pretty close.

If you figure he'll have caught a flush 1/16, and that he'll play a flush this way - going all-in - about half the time, that gives you a flush value of 1/32.

If you figure someone who does not have an actual flush will make this play 1/6 times - including high flush draws, pure bluffs, top pair, etc. - that comes out to:

15% he has the flush
85% he does not.

If you figure you lose 100% when he has it, and 33% when he does not, that gives you an overall win-rate of 57%.

So it's actually pretty close.

Depending on whether you think the inputs are right or wrong, this might very well turn into a fold.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
If you figure you lose 100% when he has it, and 33% when he does not, that gives you an overall win-rate of 57%.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the losing % for when he doesnt have the made flush is higher then 33%. If he flipped over and showed you he has a flush draw and a pair (NO ACE) then its almost exactly a 50/50 chance acording to 2times (Based on 2s 6s Qs flop with villan holding Qc Js)

Now if he is pushing all in on a flush draw then there is also a good chance he has the As. So if he held AsQc you are in deep because you are ahead now, but his draws make him the favorite. This doesnt even account for the possiblities that he has a flush and str8 draw or that he flopped a set or flopped 2pair. Also anyone with a weak flush would push almost every time to knock out the higher flush draws.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

The chance he has two suited cards is roughly .25, and the chance his cards match the board is less than .25, giving him a less than 1/16 chance of catching a flush here.

The range of hands someone will make this play with is quite a big larger than that - it includes flat out bluffs, top pair, best kicker, overpairs, and flush draws.

You also have to consider that a player who actually has a flush, may very well not make this play, since a flopped flush is a pretty powerful hand. He does not, after all, know what you have.

[/ QUOTE ]

WELL that's only true if you think Bayes theorem is stupid.

Your odds are only valid for a random hand. But he went all in. There is a much higher chance he has a flush than you quote. At a minimum he has top A of the flush or a set or is a moron.

All are possible.

My experience has taught me to be super cautious when a flush board flops. Bet into it - of course and often. Let it make u go broke? Alsmost never (at least not since my youth, lol)

[ThorGoT]

Chil888 --

I guess I am still young -- well, inexperienced, unless 30 is still young. On this forum, I doubt it. I agree (in hindsight) that someone betting all in is far more likely to have a made flush than 1 in 16 times, particularly at this level. In fact, the next time I make a flush on such a flop (if ever), *I'm* going all in. Take that!

That being said, I called. I didn't think it through adequately. My arrow was drawn irresistably to the "call" button. All I could think of was "KK". "KK". "KK". Not, put your money in pre-flop with KK, keep it out post-flop. Just "KK". "KK". "KK". And I let myself get busted a few games before with KK on an A-high flop. What was I thinking? Oh, right. "KK". "KK". "KK".

Results: He flipped over two low spades and I was drawing almost dead. The next card didn't pair anything, and I was drawing dead. I put my last 15 chips in a hand or two later and was done. Out 10th and out $100 (+ $9) "KK". "KK". "KK". God, I felt stupid.

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]


I think the losing % for when he doesnt have the made flush is higher then 33%.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right about that. You have to average it all out, of course, but I agree flush draw + A or flush draw + pair are likely hands for him.

If you win rate is actually worse than 67% when he doesn't have the flush, that makes this a fold.

[ QUOTE ]
If he flipped over and showed you he has a flush draw and a pair (NO ACE) then its almost exactly a 50/50 chance acording to 2times (Based on 2s 6s Qs flop with villan holding Qc Js)

Now if he is pushing all in on a flush draw then there is also a good chance he has the As. So if he held AsQc you are in deep because you are ahead now, but his draws make him the favorite. This doesnt even account for the possiblities that he has a flush and str8 draw or that he flopped a set or flopped 2pair. Also anyone with a weak flush would push almost every time to knock out the higher flush draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

[stupidsucker]

Dont be too hard on yourself. Being over zealous with a hand like KK, QQ, or even AA is an easy mistake to make. The real test is ... What have you learned???

If you continue to do it again and again then you can call yourself a Stupid Sucker...

[ThorGoT]

Heh, thanks -- I'll try to fold KK next time, just to prove to myself that I can. Heck, maybe before the flop -- if I can do that, I can do anything! Ok, before the flop is probably a little excessive. But maybe on an ace high flop. Grr, that will be hard, though.

In retrospect, my biggest mistake (well, my biggest mistake was calling an all in with no draw against a possibly made hand) might have been the small pre-flop bet. On the first level or two, what do people think of jacking the bets up to 100? I've seen different takes on this -- with 45, though, it seems to make a lot of sense for a lot of hands to come along and hope for a good flop to take your whole stack (pocket pairs, certainly, but maybe also suited connectors -- or in this case, suited one-gap). I usually don't tag along for 45 with these hands (except small pairs), but others do, and sometimes they win big. If KK is a 'win a small pot, lose a big pot' hand, why not win a small pot right off (or, in an ideal world, only get called or, better yet, re-raised, by 'reasonable' hands like AK, QQ, or something).