Simple pre-flop question

[ElSapo]

You're on the button with a small-medium pair. How many players do you need limping in before you raise? For the CO? And how big of an advantage is the possibility of seeing the turn for free or buying the button in this situation?

ElSapo

[Festus22]

If there's 0 limpers, I'll raise any pair from the CO or button.

1 limper, I'll raise 8's, maybe 7's depending who the limper is (possibly lower if the limper is awful).

Honestly, I don't raise anything below 9's if there's more than 1 limper. I'm sure that's a leak but I don't feel like fixing it.

My problem is that I don't flop sets very well. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[easypete]

To catch a set on the flop.

2*C(49,2)/C(50,3) = 0.12 ==> 7.3:1

To catch a set on by the turn.

2*C(49,3)/C(50,4) = 0.16 ==> 5.25:1

I generally would raise if there are 4 players limping ahead of me. Don't know if this is right. If you do hit your set on the flop, you may get great action (especially if an ace hits). If you don't, then you get to see the turn for free (most of the time), and if you hit the turn, they will very rarely give you credit for a set.

[BigEndian]

This is a different question for small and medium pairs. Medium pairs I raise regardless of how many are in the pot to me by and large.

Small pairs I almost never raise unless there are 5+ players already in. I also do not like to steal with small pairs and am content to muck and wait until another hand.

As for seeing the turn for free, I wouldn't count that as significant enough to make the raise soley for that purpose with a small pair. And it's very table dependant. The button makes very little difference with a small PP since you either make your hand or are gone typically.

- Jim

[Rico Suave]

Big Endian:

[ QUOTE ]
As for seeing the turn for free, I wouldn't count that as significant enough to make the raise soley for that purpose with a small pair. And it's very table dependant. The button makes very little difference with a small PP since you either make your hand or are gone typically.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your thoughts.

The main reason to raise limpers in lp with a small pocket pair, imo, is to tie your opponents to the pot when you do hit your hand and they are drawing dead to slim. Now you do not need to do this when your opponents are going to call you down with marginal holding anyway. And, if you are at an aggressive game, it would seem that you more likely get paid handsomely for spiking a set without the need to "tie" people to the pot by raising (thereby hurting your implied odds).

I currently do not often raise in these spots....perhaps I am missing something. I would love to know if and why I am missing the boat on this one.

--Rico

[Octopus]

As Rico says, this is very opponent specific. We basically need the move to gain us 2+ big bets post-flop compared to limping, which means we need people to continue to draw with middle or bottom pair, overcards, etc., when they would have thrown these away had we not raised. (Note that these people are drawing dead or nearly so if we hit our set.) If your opponents are good enough to make decisions based on pot-size, raising can trap them. If they call along with middle pair (or less) regardless, then raising just costs money.

[ElSapo]

This is really what I meant...

5 players limp to you on the button. Do you raise with TT? 77? 33?

ElSapo

[J.R.]

Yes to all, unless the limpers include some over aggressive postflop players, in which case I might limp with the 33, or even the 77 (because I don't rate to get a free card). For me, in a pot with that many limpers, the liklihood of the free card on flop consideration is the primary factor because, irrespective of the "will they chase anyway" argument, I likely have a decent preflop pot equity edge given the range of hands held by 5 limpers (this is more so with 77 than 33).

But either way its not close IMO with TT, or even 99, regardless of the texture. 88 is where it gets interesting from my perspective, but I'd still raise that in almost any game with 5 limpers to me.

[Bob T.]

6,5, I would guess that you see a free turn card 25% of the time.

[Octopus]

Assume that there is no difference in chasing, etc. between raising and limping: With 5 limpers, if you hit your set on the flop then your raise is worth the 5 extra bets, for a total EV of -0.41 SB. (-1 + .118 * 5). On those occassions you miss, say you will get a free card 25% of the time. This has an EV of 0.098 SB (.882*.25*.0444*10). So the total EV of raising if nothing else in the hand changes in terms of chasing, etc., except the chance we will get a free card, is -.31 SB. Against 4 limpers, the final number is -.45 SB.

In any case, the chance we will get a free card is not sufficient to make raising +EV (unless we are almost certain that we will get it). We also need the other players actions to change. (i.e. they chase, or they try to bluff us off a flop of rags, or whatever.) In fact, the change in the other players' actions you suggest (they get more passive) actually works against us.

For this reason, I think that raising late with med./small pairs with limpers is opponent specific, with an emphasis on their response to pot size in decision making. What am I missing?



NB: (.882*.25*.0444*10) = chance we will miss * chance we will get a free card * chance we will hit on the turn * size of the pot. I realize I have ignored stuff like sets losing or winning with a one card straight or flush, etc. I don't think they meaningfully change the analysis and I wouldn't know how to estimate the odds anyway.

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
5 players limp to you on the button. Do you raise with TT? 77? 33?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think 88 is close. I limp it most of the time though.