Who caps this turn?

[nepenthe]

No particular reads on my opponents here. Haven't seen them go maniacal postflop or anything, but I haven't been at this table for too long.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: nepenthe is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">nepenthe raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">nepenthe bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">nepenthe bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, nepenthe

[TripleH68]

Hands I am worried about here are limited + outs = cap.

[AdamL]

AA always loses to JTo, you have to fold.

[nepenthe]

One turn raise in this situation = easy 3-bet for me. But a check/3-bet from the BB who just called my preflop raise? This in addition to the fact that typical partiers love to stay in for gutshots?

[jordanx]

I'd cap it.

[AdamL]

I would say even just having a raise and reraise come after you, regardless of the limp/3bet, would be enough evidence that a straight has probably been made here. Not a good capping situation.

[TripleH68]

Check/3-bet is a missile no doubt, esp. from a guy that should be putting you on at least two pair. May I change my answer to cap only if BB is a maniac? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
AA always loses to JTo, you have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of the newbies might not realize that this advice has to be a joke.

[MAxx]

i cap this turn everytime. on the river if he is still firing away at me and I havent improved, then I will slow down and consider the JT straight.

[Homer315]

What's the saying about if you don't lose a lot of money with a set, you're not playing it correctly? I cap.

Pocket kings (which are relatively unlikely from the BB since he didn't raise) and pocket threes (which is well within the realm of possibility) could easily three bet this.

[nepenthe]

Does anyone wonder what Button has and whether he might've capped on his own?

[MAxx]

he could just as easily be going overboard with 2pair. there is just too much probability that you are ahead that you cannot pass up on this capping opportunity.

[Homer315]

It's not even going overboard, if you had A-Q, wouldn't you raise?

[nepenthe]

OK.

I feel pretty strongly that a turn cap by me in this situation is clearly -EV, without a reliable read on my opponents as overaggressive. This is because when not one, but two of my opponents like their hands enough to respectively raise and 3-bet me, I have to consider the combinations of possible hands that each of them is holding assuming that they both have at least 2 pair or better.

Against one opponent, his holdings can be rather broad. However against two opponents, one opponent's holding takes away the range of the other's. Therefore, for instance, if Button has something like AQ (which is already unlikely given I have AA), it is that much less likely for BB to have something like KQ.

Given KK/QQ are both rather unlikely holdings for my opponents to say the least, by capping this turn I am basically hoping that one of them has two pair, and the other one has 33. In terms of pure mathematical probability, how likely is this precise scenario as opposed to one of them having JT?

Now let me ask another hypothetical question: what if river came another 3, thus giving you a full house? Would you then happily cap the river since now you will now change your mind and no longer put either opponent on 33, but instead on JT?

[MAxx]

i admit i might have overlooked Button a little. but really how does that make much difference. you are certainly not folding this hand, right.

you could just call the turn 3bet and then it gets back to button who capps... not much different than if you capped. however you may have a little more suspicion that you may have to improve on river.

bad alternative- you just call the turn 3 bet and button just calls... you should then feel like you wished you capped turn.

IMO, bottom line is that I want this turn capped... so I might as well do it myself. If someone continues to lead on river after all that and I havent improved, then I may just call.

[easypete]

JTo/s:

16 possible combinations / C(46,2) = 1.5% chance

P(not) = 0.98
P(not)^2 = 0.97 ==&gt; 97% chance good (purely by math vs 2 opponents).

I'm capping here. It's +EV.

[Rico Suave]

Easypete:

Do you not think that the way the hand played out would eliminate some of the other 98% of hands he could be holding?

--Rico

[jluker7]

I think capping is right, you still have outs if the person you are against does happen to have jt.. go for the money in that situation.


its quite apparent why easy pete knows his math, hes the devil (666 post)

and isn't math for the devil?

[tolbiny]

You also left out the probablility of getting c/r on the river when a blank hits. When you cap the turn i expect that you are betting a vast majority of the rivers. This sets you to put in 2 extra bets when you are behind, but realistically only 1 bet when you are ahead. (it isnt quite this bad since you can improve on your opponents when behind, but they are very unlikely to improve on you when they are behind).

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Easypete:

Do you not think that the way the hand played out would eliminate some of the other 98% of hands he could be holding?

--Rico

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Absolutely... i don't think he's playing 72o. This is the big problem w/ statistical analysis of any poker situation. I was answering the purely mathematical question, as posed by nepenthe.

I think the big thing w/ statistics tells you that you shouldn't fear the monsters. Betting/raising/checking/check-raising all give us clues to the situation. Now in this case, the BB check-3-bets the turn. Why? I dunno. Let's look at what beats us...

JT.... 16 combinations.

What can he have that doesn't beat us....

AK... 3 combinations left.
AQ... 3 combinations left.
KQ... 9 combinations left.
KK... 3 combinations left.
QQ... 3 combinations left.
33... 3 combinations left.
A3... 3 combinations left.
K3... 3 combinations left.
Q3... 3 combinations left.
QJ... 9 combinations left.
KJ... 9 combinations left.
QT... 9 combinations left.
KT... 9 combinations left.
AJ... 3 combinations left.
AT... 3 combinations left.
Any 2 spades... C(11,2) = 55 combinations left.

I'm probably missing some things that some fish may play. I'm probably including some that don't make too much sense (It's PP).

Add in the possibility that they are ticked about the whole Empire bonus issue, and you can add in a few hundred other hands.

I get a total of 16 hands that beat you and 130 hands that you beat (+/-).

so 130:16 or 8.13:1.... so raise is +EV against 2 players.

[MAxx]

i know you were just saying that they could be playing some trash for who knows what reason (in addtion to the reaonable hands), but what is the whole empire bonus issue?

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
i know you were just saying that they could be playing some trash for who knows what reason (in addtion to the reaonable hands), but what is the whole empire bonus issue?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Empire Bonus Thing (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=inet&amp;Number=1072650&amp;page=0 &amp;view=collapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=all)

[Homer315]

You talk about what possible holdings the people could have. You say you don't have any reads. I would ask myself what I would do with the possible hands of the other players. 10-J is the only hand you're behind to right now, correct? And even with that you have as many as 10 outs (though we all know it's less than that) to improve to a full house.

I would ask what the BB might have. If he isn't a good player, he could have anything, and be defending his blind with crap. He could just as easily have K-3, or two spades (maybe K-10 or K-J of spades), and be stupid by re-raising.

I think people would raise and RE-raise with all sorts of holdings here. That's why you have to cap it. At worst, you're behind and have something like 8 outs to improve on the river. I think, far more often you will be ahead here. You asked what the button could have, do you think they BOTH have 10-J? They're raising a pre-flop raiser and bettor, do you think they put you on a flopped top set?

[nepenthe]

You cannot possibly count hands such as KJ, Q3, AJ, any two spades etc. as equally probable holdings for either the Button to raise OR the BB to 3-bet. I do indeed surmise you were being entirely too frivolous here.

Out of all the hands you listed, only KQ, AQ, and 33 are quite probable assuming neither of the two opponents is very aggressive. They add up to 15 outs total. Worse yet, I'm against 2 opponents, diluting these possibilities even further.

[MAxx]

i was unaware of that bonus. i wonder how much other good stuff rolls right past me..... i imagine a lot. i guess i didnt miss anything as it turns out, but i would have been mad as hell too.

[colgin]

I just call here and call the river unimproved. If Button caps the turn I call also, but if SB still bets the river after Button capping the turn you need to consider making a tough fold if you do not improve (even assuming that a bad card, e.g., any J, T or /images/graemlins/spade.gif, does not fall on the river).

[nepenthe]

One of the postulates of tempered aggression, which I try to practice at all times, is to treat your typical Party 3/6 opponents (read: gutless, stupid, slobbering monkeys) with respect. That is, without particular reads suggesting otherwise, I assume they are fairly loose preflop, and rather passive postflop. A hand like turned flush draws or K3 is not a check-3-betting hand by your normal Party 3/6er against a preflop raiser on an AKQ3 board. I know this by experience.

You asked if I thought if both of my opponents had JT. I don't. And that's not the point. The point is that with two opponents who are willing to raise and 3-bet the turn against a preflop raiser on an obviously ominous-looking board containing the Ace, the King and the Queen, if you do not give JT a serious consideration the moment you're check/raised/3-bet you are playing only your own two cards. The pot is not big enough for you to cap this for value drawing to a FH.

Let me put it to you this way. If you were against one opponent only instead of two, with the identical board at the turn, and you bet, opponent raises, you 3-bet, and opponent caps...would you give JT a serious consideration then? You should. The current situation is not much different when a 2nd opponent reraises a raise. In fact, it is even more dangerous than the situation where just one opponent raises/caps the turn, because the range of hands held by BOTH opponents can more easily include the JT than the range of hands held by just one opponent.

[MAxx]

i respect tempered aggression, and i respect that it is important to you. i just would not want to overdo it on that concept. I would not be capping only b/c i am drawing to fb. I would be capping b/c based on my party experiences a substancial amount of the time MHIG without improvement. Add to that the possiblity of improvement, and that gives me addtional comfort to what I already view as +EV.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the postulates of tempered aggression, which I try to practice at all times, is to treat your typical Party 3/6 opponents (read: gutless, stupid, slobbering monkeys) with respect. That is, without particular reads suggesting otherwise, I assume they are fairly loose preflop, and rather passive postflop. A hand like turned flush draws or K3 is not a check-3-betting hand by your normal Party 3/6er against a preflop raiser on an AKQ3 board. I know this by experience.

You asked if I thought if both of my opponents had JT. I don't. And that's not the point. The point is that with two opponents who are willing to raise and 3-bet the turn against a preflop raiser on an obviously ominous-looking board containing the Ace, the King and the Queen, if you do not give JT a serious consideration the moment you're check/raised/3-bet you are playing only your own two cards. The pot is not big enough for you to cap this for value drawing to a FH.

Let me put it to you this way. If you were against one opponent only instead of two, with the identical board at the turn, and you bet, opponent raises, you 3-bet, and opponent caps...would you give JT a serious consideration then? You should. The current situation is not much different when a 2nd opponent reraises a raise. In fact, it is even more dangerous than the situation where just one opponent raises/caps the turn, because the range of hands held by BOTH opponents can more easily include the JT than the range of hands held by just one opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post! Your post pretty much sums up the thinking behind the conclusory advice I gave in my previous post. I was just too lazy to write out all my thinking. I aespecialy agree with your point about typical Party $3/6ers coming alive on the turn on scary boards.

The other point to make is that even if Hero is still ahead there are a fair numberof bad river cards that can still come to ruin his hand.

[bdk3clash]

Nepenthe (and everyone):

Great thread, awesome posts. Your point about tempered respect for your opponents is a good one--without a specific read, I don't assume my opponents are mindlessly raising the turn, check 3-betting, etc. They make mistakes, but this isn't typical of the mistakes they tend to make.

I guess the real question is given the range of hands your opponents could have here, what is the EV of capping versus not capping the turn? In and of itself, capping the turn can only cost you a fraction of a bet (even if you're behind, you have outs to a boat), but it sets up a potentially tricky river, since if you cap the turn, you pretty much have to bet the river if BB checks, and he's sure going to checkraise you and the button (who might raise your bet) with the nuts if he has TJ and you don't fill up.

There's also the small possibility that the button will fold to your cap on the turn but would have called if you had just called the BB's 3-bet.

Also, if you just call the BB's 3-bet, you further allow the button to define his hand and figure out his probable river action.

I'm voting to just call the turn 3-bet, but I think this is a tricky and close decision. I could be very, very wrong here.

One quick question:

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is not big enough for you to cap this for value drawing to a FH.

[/ QUOTE ]
What does the pot size have to do with betting/raising a draw for value?

[sfer]

You raised UTG+1 preflop and on the turn got raised behind and checkraise/3-bet on an AKQx board by the BB. The board almost certainly helped an EP preflop raise (or he at least has outs to b'way). Unless these two are totally clueless or way overaggro I'm calling the turn and river unimproved.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot is not big enough for you to cap this for value drawing to a FH.

[/ QUOTE ]
What does the pot size have to do with betting/raising a draw for value?

[/ QUOTE ]

(Other than folding equity considerations, which I think are nonexistent based on this board and the turn action.)

[MAxx]

Exactly how often or what percentage of the time do you all expect one of the other 2 opponents have JT on this turn sequence? I guesstimate 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 from the party 3/6 folk. That is why I choose to cap this hand everytime. During one of those 1 in x times that villain actually has jt, guess what... I have a redraw. So its even less dangerous than 1 in 6 or 1 in 7. I am saving my tempered agression for better spots, this spot is getting my flying-off-the-handles-untempered-all-out aggression.

[nepenthe]

Oops, I think I meant to say something else entirely, such as capping for value if there were many more opponents who would stay in and pay off the improved river.

[Azhrarn]

How often would I expect one of my opponents to have JT given this sequence? At least 2 out of 3.

I would not cap here. Nepenthe, I agree with everything you've said in this thread.

[MAxx]

if 2 out of 3 were right, then calling 3bet would be unquestionably correct. 2 out 3 doesn't seem close to me, not even remotely close.

[GuyOnTilt]

I just wanted to point out that a Bayesian analysis on this hand is abso-freaking-lutely ridiculous.

GoT

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to point out that a Bayesian analysis on this hand is abso-freaking-lutely ridiculous.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for that.

Had to look it up...

[ QUOTE ]
Definition: pertaining to statistical methods based on Thomas Bayes' probability theorem involving prior knowledge and accumulated experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know for sure what you're replying to. The first post I replied to in this thread was just vs 2 opponents the chances of a random hand being JT. I agree, this is not the correct way to look at things.

Taking into consideration the actions of the players, you can eliminate quite a few hands. My second thread... I put out a lot of the hands that could be possible from the actions of the opponents in this hand.

If I were the BB in this hand, having a somewhat loose pf criteria for calling a pfr on the BB, I can make a defense for each of the hands I listed. If I were in the BB, quite a few of these hands, I may have played the same way.

GoT... I respect you, your skills, and your posts.... and this is somewhat similar to being called to the pricipal's office, but dang.... "abso-freaking-lutely ridiculous"????

Let's just request that the probability forum be disbanded.

[Homer315]

OK, so what did the guy(s) have?

(sitting on edge of seat, nervously)

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]

GoT... I respect you, your skills, and your posts.... and this is somewhat similar to being called to the pricipal's office, but dang.... "abso-freaking-lutely ridiculous"????

Let's just request that the probability forum be disbanded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure GoT is talking about your initial Bayesian analysis which is indeed ridiculous, as others have pointed out there is just no way he'd play the vast majority of hands included in that analysis like this. I also don't think your second post was too accurate either, an opponent who has not obviously gotten too out of line check-3betting the turn with any two spades on an AKQ board? Rubbish.

FWIW, I would just call here but I'm pretty sure it's close.

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
I also don't think your second post was too accurate either, an opponent who has not obviously gotten too out of line check-3betting the turn with any two spades on an AKQ board? Rubbish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that someone would check/3-bet any two spades on the turn. I'm saying I've seen it.

If I'm BB here, and I have K/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif or K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, or K/images/graemlins/spade.gif x/images/graemlins/spade.gif.... you're telling me that a check/3-bet not a realistic play?

The hero, in this scenario, is showing strength. If there is a chance that I can push the hero off his hand (not knowing he has AA) since the button has raised and I can force the hero to call 2 bets here, is it worth risking 3BB to win this pot?

I'll be the first one to admit that I suck at poker. But I truley believe that I would be better than 2:1 on winning this, so I believe that a cap here is +EV. If you are behind, you still have 10 outs for a win (barring giving your opponent quads).

Maybe I'm playing too much 2/4, but I don't give my opponents that much credit.

[PokerNoob]

BB's check 3-bet screams JT if he's any kind of reasonable player. So I give it serious consideration. But it could also be something like KJ, KT spades. I'd also like to see how Button reacts. Does he cap? If he does, what will happen on the river? I'd hate to call one and have two come back to me. I think I'm destined to lose a lot of money on this hand if somebody does have JT, because I can't make this fold. I'm also not so sure that some of my boat outs aren't sitting in one of my opponents hands and once in a blue moon make somebody's quads. I'll call here and try to get the cap in if I boat.

[bdk3clash]

I think this thread proves that the more responses a decision gets, the less likely it is to matter very much in the long run.

I'm curious as to the rest of the turn and river action and the results on this one as well.

[jluker7]

I agree, lets see the results, jeez!!!

[nepenthe]

Turn: (4.66 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">nepenthe bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, nepenthe calls, <font color="CC3333">Button caps</font>, BB calls, nepenthe calls.

Someone seems to be overplaying his hand. Regardless I'm in trouble.

River: (16.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font> /images/graemlins/laugh.gif
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">nepenthe raises</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 22.66 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 22.66 BB, between Button, BB and nepenthe.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB has Th Jh (straight, ace high).
nepenthe has Ah Ad (full house, aces full of threes).
Button has Kh Qc (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: nepenthe wins 22.66 BB. </font>

[jluker7]

[ QUOTE ]

River: (16.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font> /images/graemlins/laugh.gif
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">nepenthe raises</font>, Button calls, BB calls.


[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="red">BINGO!</font>

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
In terms of pure mathematical probability, how likely is this precise scenario as opposed to one of them having JT?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have misformulated the problem. If Button has JT it doesn't matter very much what you do because you cannot prevent the cap.

You need to start your analysis by assuming that it actually matters what you do, i.e. you must assume that Button does not have JT and estimate the probability that BB does.

You have a lot of equity in your full house draw. It will hit about 1/5 of the time. Capping against JT will cost you 4/5 * 1BB - 1/5 * 2BB = 2/5 BB. Not capping when you are ahead will cost you 2BB.

Note the key numbers: lose 2/5 BB when wrong, gain 2 BB when right.

You are getting 5-1 odds on your bet that BB doesn't have JT. That's pretty golden in my book. This is a very easy cap.

[nepenthe]

Thanks for your calculations, but I can't shake the feeling that something is not right here. First, if BB has JT I think it's pretty reasonable to put the other guy on at least two pair. My FH outs are significantly discounted and I'm thinking my odds of hitting are closer to 16 or 17%.

Also, I'm not sure that capping the turn against JT costs me just 1 bet, because there is a very real threat of a river checkraise even by fairly typical players, and if I'm aggressive enough here to cap the turn I will certainly bet a river brick.

Finally, I'm not sure whether I necessarily gain 2BB when right as you said, because there is the somewhat small possibility that a made straight checks a river card that pairs the board fearing the boat. Alternatively, if I call the turn 3-bet and river pairs the board, the BB with JT is more likely to bet the river and I can raise.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
First, if BB has JT I think it's pretty reasonable to put the other guy on at least two pair. My FH outs are significantly discounted and I'm thinking my odds of hitting are closer to 16 or 17%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your nominal chance is 10/46 to make a full house or quads. But we can place some cards.

If BB has JT and Button has two of your outs in his hand (two pair) then your chance is 8/42 which is about 19.04%. I rounded this to "about 1/5 of the time".

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not sure that capping the turn against JT costs me just 1 bet, because there is a very real threat of a river checkraise even by fairly typical players, and if I'm aggressive enough here to cap the turn I will certainly bet a river brick.

[/ QUOTE ]
The turn cap has three things going for it that a river bet does not:

1. Ten outs.

2. It's the cap so no one can reraise with JT.

3. I don't have to consider the possibility that Button has JT because he'll cap anyway when he does.

I hope BB tries to checkraise a river blank with JT ... because I'm not betting. As you have correctly pointed out, my winning chances aren't very good when I miss. Getting a free showdown due to a missed checkraise is a possible advantage of capping the turn.

[maryfield48]

StellarWind is God.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
StellarWind is God.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously. How good are his posts? SS needs more StellarWind and less me.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
you have a lot of equity in your full house draw. It will hit about 1/5 of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the action, you have to consider the distinct possibility that many of your outs are dead. You have also assumed that everyone will call no matter what you do, when in fact, capping may make players fold who would have called.

It's not nearly as clear as you are suggesting, although your point about starting the conversation with the assumption that the BB is the only possible player with JT is dead on, and capping may be the best play.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, I'm not sure whether I necessarily gain 2BB when right as you said, because there is the somewhat small possibility that a made straight checks a river card that pairs the board fearing the boat. Alternatively, if I call the turn 3-bet and river pairs the board, the BB with JT is more likely to bet the river and I can raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point.

Good luck.
Eric

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the action, you have to consider the distinct possibility that many of your outs are dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the board, if he's behind he's only behind to some variant of TJ, and the worst I can come up with him is 8 outs, if one opponent has T/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif and the other has QQ/33, making the K/images/graemlins/spade.gif and case Q/3 not outs anymore.

Is there a worse scenario? I don't really think that 2 outs dead is "many," but I could be missing something. Scratch that, I probably am missing something.

[nepenthe]

Well, I cannot assume that any of my outs are necessarily dead, albeit seriously reduced. However the irony of the situation is that the more opponents I have who are willing to call a turn 3-bet and/or cap, the more value I can supposedly obtain for my draw to a FH assuming I am behind, but simultaneously the chances have greatly increased that many of my outs are in opponents' hands. My overlay is not great whether I'm against a big or small field given the action.

But let's say in this case that Button isn't a factor, and will just call along the rest of the way whether I cap or call the turn 3-bet.

From the moment BB 3-bets, assuming I'm behind it'll cost me 3 BB's at the turn to cap, and most likely another BB at the river. That's 4BB's. If I decide to call the turn and the river, it'll cost me 3BB's total. Therefore calling saves me 1BB.

Assuming I'm ahead of both BB and Button, capping will gain me 3BB's at the turn and probably 2BB's at the river whether or not I improve to a FH. Calling will gain me 1BB at the turn and 2BBs at the river, unless I improve to a FH in which case I'll likely gain 4BB's (since BB will lead and I can raise, and Button will call). Calling when ahead at the turn would either cost me 2BB or 0BB depending on whether I improve.

Thus I'm still strongly inclined to call here since my hypothetical rewards would not far exceed the losses suffered regardless of whether I am ahead at the turn.

[tolbiny]

Are you worried at all about capping the turn and when you try to foil the river checkraise plan the button bets behind you anyway?

[StellarWind]

We assume that BB has JT and Button has something realistic that is not JT.

The idea is that two of your outs are dead because they are in Button's hand. He needs two cards that work with the board. Your draw is 8 outs in a 42 card deck.

It's barely possible you could lose another out to quads or a royal. Too remote for me to worry about.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you worried at all about capping the turn and when you try to foil the river checkraise plan the button bets behind you anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not a special plan to foil BB. I just don't think it's a good idea to bet the river when I'm probably losing.

Button is going to do whatever he wants. If he has JT I can't stop him from betting the river regardless of who capped the turn.

We could have a hard decision if the river goes blank-check-check-bet-raise. But at least we get to see all the evidence before we put any river money in. That's about all you can ask for.

If Button wants to bet the river without JT, capping the turn won't make the problem any worse. It might discourage him.

[MAxx]

great posts stellar, love your analysis. have you been in this situation at the table enough where you would autocap here for your reasoning. have you gotten to the point where your analyis and decision in this spot would be real time? just curious.

[StellarWind]

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great posts stellar, love your analysis. have you been in this situation at the table enough where you would autocap here for your reasoning. have you gotten to the point where your analyis and decision in this spot would be real time? just curious.

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Not exactly.

Do you realize that one year ago I literally had never heard of Texas Hold'em? I had heard of 7-card stud. On the rare occasions when I considered the matter at all I wondered how you ranked 7-card hands ...

Last November I saw a display of poker books in a store. I bought "Poker For Dummies" on a lark. I saw Caro's book on tells and thought it might help my bridge game (I'm a serious bridge player). I figured I'd get more out of it if I knew the basics of poker.

In many ways I am still a beginner. I try to play as much as I can, but I have a career and a family.

I didn't know what to think about Nepenthe's question when I read it. The thread didn't seem very enlightening so I sat down and worked it out for myself.

Doing this kind of analytical work is the best way to improve at poker (bridge too). It trains the mind to recognize the underlying patterns. You generally do not have time to do analysis at the table. But if you have analyzed many similar situations in the past, the right answer is likely to come to you instinctively.

The many logical reasons you give for your play after-the-fact are just that: after-the-fact. You didn't consider most of them at the table. But if you do your homework your instinctive reaction is usually correct.

[bdk3clash]

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"Stellar! Stellar!"