MLB 9/29

[MicroBob]

Like Billy, I had Halama and TB last night. Bummer.
I've gotten clobbered the last couple of nights. Oh well, win some and lose some.


Tonight: A couple young pitchers who are doing very well against a couple of veterans who aren't exactly srruggling.

NYM +240
CIN +212


NYM - Aaron Heilman last 3 starts - 18ip, 12h, 7er, 16k
especially noticeable are his last 2 starts
9/19 @ PIT - 7ip, 2h, 1er, 3bb, 5k
9/25 v CHC - 5ip, 3h, 2er, 4bb, 5k

some control problems in there it appears. But he's getting batters out.
trivia - he was NYM's 1st round choice in 2001 after going 15-0 in his career at Notre Dame. Not bad.
Russ Ortiz for ATL has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts. including 9/24 v. FLA 2.1ip, 3h, 5er, 4bb, 3k and 9/14 @NYM 5.2ip, 9h, 7er.
He wants to do well with the playoffs approaching obviously.
But Heilman appears to be pitching better overall right now.


CIN +212 - Luke Hudson is 4-2, 2.55. He's allowed ZERO ER in 3 of his last 4 starts.
total nos. for his last 4 starts: 21ip, 10h, 4r, 3er, 12bb, 22k.
and his 3 starts before that were pretty good too. A little erratic with his control but overall he's been pitching EXTREMELY well.
Glendon Rusch for CHC has been done very well in his last 2 starts....including beating my man Heilman last week.
but Hudson has been so good of late that I think the Reds easily win more than 33% of the time here.

[Billy Baroo]

I like the bet on New York a lot. I think Ortiz is MUCH worse than his stats indicate. He doesn't keep it on the ground, he doesn't strike people out, and he walks a lot of batters. His strength as a pitcher seems to be that he doesn't let up the long ball, but over the last 2 months he's been serving up plenty of them. I didn't try to handicap any games last night because of my losing streak, but if I had I definitely would have put money on this game. It also looks like you did a good job line shopping, because I don't think the game closed at more than +220 anywhere. The game's just about to get underway... good luck.

The Cincinatti game is harder for me to get a bead on because there's not much data on Hudson yet. If he's the real deal then I think there's great value here, but if he's just a scrub who has run lucky for a few starts then Cincinatti could be in serious trouble here. Rusch walks hardly anybody and hasn't let up a home run since 8/10.

[mrbaseball]

Love Cincy today. Nice price. I hate the cubbies but I'd like to see them make the playoffs just so we can bet against them. The books will pay us to bet against them just like last year. The books are so overloaded with Cubs bets you can't help but getting a very tasty price on the other side.

[MicroBob]

Billy - not really line-shopping too much. Just saw a respectable line on pinnacle last night and went with it. It's nice that I grabbed it before it moved of course.


[ QUOTE ]
The books are so overloaded with Cubs bets you can't help but getting a very tasty price on the other side.


[/ QUOTE ]


I'm new at this stuff but the same has occured to me as well.
I think some of the recent lines on the Cubs has already reflected this.
They're not freaking world-beaters afterall. They've got some decent pitchers and are barely hanging on in the WC race.


Anyway, the Reds won a wild one in 12.
NYM jumped on Ortiz early but ATL bounced back late to win.

Went 1-1 this afternoon and still made a nice little profit.
I love undervalued baseball underdogs.


I also took MIN +220 in game 2 tonight.