First NFL bets

[Mons]

After becoming intrigued with sports betting after reading this forum (I'm a poker player) I decided to throw a small amount into Pinnacle and test the waters.

These are going to be my first bets. I really don't know anything about sports betting but these seemed like reasonable picks. Any greivous errors?

Patriots (-5.5) -- Mainly I'm picking this because it seems solid and I live in Boston. Should I drop it or is it reasonable?
Eagles (-9) -- Eagles so hot and Chicago so hurt.
Texans (+2.5) -- Seems like a good situation to bet the underdog?

And right now I'm currently doing some research on Indy vs Jags. Indy is only -3.5 and Peyton is a monster. Should I take Indy in that too?

Any tips/suggestions?

[tubbyspencer]

I like the Pats and Indy (have them both already).

I don't like betting against Chicago, a home underdog by more than a touchdown. I'm not saying bet Chicago, I'm saying this is a skip, for me, anyway.

No idea on the Texans. I still think they're tough to figure out.

[craig r]

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and I live in Boston

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That is a grievous error right there. Are you saying you layed 5.5 points (on the road against a divisional rival) because you live in boston?

[Mons]

Well apart from the fact that I believe the reigning Super Bowl champs will beat the Bills by more than a touchdown.

It merely 'swayed' my decision since I was hesitant after not seeing the Pats play in week 3.

[craig r]

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Any tips/suggestions?


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You should not lay points on the road. Home dogs are some of the best bets; which would mean road favs are some of the worst.

Also, on the +2.5, you should have bought it up to 3. It is more profitable to lay -130 at +3, than +2.5 -110.

As far as a team being "hot," doesn't it seem that the line maker has already factored this in?

craig

[Easy E]

If you haven't already, check out our "3+1" handicappers' challenge

[Smackdab]

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You should not lay points on the road. Home dogs are some of the best bets; which would mean road favs are some of the worst.


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Since 1990 Home dogs have covered 53.84%. A small advantage but not exactly huge. Haven't linesmakers factored in that edge when setting the line?

I'm going to have to look up the % now on road dogs covering. My guess is it will probably be like 48.76%.

When it comes right down to it...right or wrong...I look at the on field matchups and look for what I consider value ATS. Been working so far and if It ain't broke....don't fix it.

If anyone has a compelling argument otherwise I am all ears.