getridofbush
09-28-2004, 11:39 PM
Hi there
Pokerroom.com, 20+2 sng.
Blinds at 25-50 or 50-100 (can't remember which), but this is a frisky table and 3 are already dead, so we're 7-handed.
Lots of people calling/raising any ace, low pairs, lots of calls with K-x suited, etc. Not a lot of folds on the flop except to large (pot-sized-plus) bets.
I have JJ in the big blind, and I have about t2300 left.
A player in sth like UTG+2 pushes allin t700 preflop, and he's one of the people playing any ace, etc. So my read on him is there is no reason at all to think he's on QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ. If I had to guess I'd pick A-x or a pair.
The small-blind, who has t1600, calls this bet.
I think about it for a bit and decide to push here. My reasoning is:
1. The prob that I have the better hand compared to UTG+2 is very high; the odds that he has me beat preflop are extremely low based on my read.
2. The SB is not particularly tight, but he seems to know what he's doing for the most part, so I figure he probably has the same read as I do on UTG+2. I decide he would call the initial AI with almost any pair (say, 44+) as well as with two broadway cards, and maybe a suited Ace. So I think there's a very good chance I have him beat as of now.
3. If I just call, I'll have t1600 left to SB's 900, and I figure the odds he'll push on the flop with scare cards are high regardless of what he holds. I really don't want to have to make that decision if one of the three overcards to my Jacks comes.
4. I figure (at the time) that I might have some decent folding equity against SB, too.
5. Even if I lose, I still have t700 left, and the blinds are relatively low. There's time to recover, esp on this table given how loose it is. If I win, I am probably going to cruise to the cash, as I play a very tight SNG game.
In retrospect, I think points 1-3 and 5 were dead on (though if people disagree with point 5 I'd like to know).
Point 4 I think I was too optimistic about: when I re-raised, the pot was t3000, thus laying the SB 3.3:1 on his last t900. He could reasonably have hands that would lead him to think he wasn't dominated, making a call here probably reasonable.
I could certainly have folded, but at the time I figured there was only a small chance I was dominated. It didn't occur to me til later that I probably underestimated the chance that I needed to dodge three overcards, rather than 2.
Ignoring the possibility that a Jack comes (which will happen 1/5 of the time in five cards if no one else has one), the probability that I'll see an overcard is 0.65, so the odds that I dodge an overcard are 2:1. Ignoring the possibility of undersets, straights and flushes (which is probably reasonable since my Jacks reduce the odds of higher straights considerably), this means that if I am facing three overcards I will win only 1/3 of the time (I think I will see a Jack about 10 percent of the time I see an overcard, but I'm prepared to ignore this boon as well as my own straight and flush possibilities for similar reasons to the above).
Put that argument together, and I am looking at 2:1 odds to win 2350 (including my blind) by risking 1550 in the compound event that (i) the SB calls and (ii) I am facing three overcards. If I am facing only two overcards or an underpair, I am at least tied and possibly way ahead.
So my push makes sense if the probability that I'm facing three overcards and the SB calls is low enough. How low? Well, if we assume I'm even money when not facing three overcards, my expectation if I push here is
P*(1/3)*4600 + (1-P)*[(1/2)*3700 + (1/2)*1600],
where P is the probability that when I push I'm called by the SB and I face 3 overcards.
Ignoring risk aversion due to the I'm-broke-I'm-done feature of tourneys, this expectation has to be greater than 2550 (what I'll have if I fold) for the push to make sense. By my
math, this means that I should push whenever
P < 0.91.
So if I think there's at least a 10% chance that either the SB will fold or I am facing only two overcards, then pushing is +EV. This actually makes me feel a lot better about the 3-OC situation, since I definitely would guess at least a 1/10 chance I'm facing a lower pair from one of these guys, or they have one overcard in common.
Do people agree with me about my assessment of this situation?
Jonah
Results below in white:
<font color="white">
UTG+1 had A-6 offsuit
SB had KQs
So my read was basically ok.
The flop came with a Queen, no K or A hit at all, and while I got four to a (winning) flush by the turn, the river didn't bring a Jack or my flush.
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Pokerroom.com, 20+2 sng.
Blinds at 25-50 or 50-100 (can't remember which), but this is a frisky table and 3 are already dead, so we're 7-handed.
Lots of people calling/raising any ace, low pairs, lots of calls with K-x suited, etc. Not a lot of folds on the flop except to large (pot-sized-plus) bets.
I have JJ in the big blind, and I have about t2300 left.
A player in sth like UTG+2 pushes allin t700 preflop, and he's one of the people playing any ace, etc. So my read on him is there is no reason at all to think he's on QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ. If I had to guess I'd pick A-x or a pair.
The small-blind, who has t1600, calls this bet.
I think about it for a bit and decide to push here. My reasoning is:
1. The prob that I have the better hand compared to UTG+2 is very high; the odds that he has me beat preflop are extremely low based on my read.
2. The SB is not particularly tight, but he seems to know what he's doing for the most part, so I figure he probably has the same read as I do on UTG+2. I decide he would call the initial AI with almost any pair (say, 44+) as well as with two broadway cards, and maybe a suited Ace. So I think there's a very good chance I have him beat as of now.
3. If I just call, I'll have t1600 left to SB's 900, and I figure the odds he'll push on the flop with scare cards are high regardless of what he holds. I really don't want to have to make that decision if one of the three overcards to my Jacks comes.
4. I figure (at the time) that I might have some decent folding equity against SB, too.
5. Even if I lose, I still have t700 left, and the blinds are relatively low. There's time to recover, esp on this table given how loose it is. If I win, I am probably going to cruise to the cash, as I play a very tight SNG game.
In retrospect, I think points 1-3 and 5 were dead on (though if people disagree with point 5 I'd like to know).
Point 4 I think I was too optimistic about: when I re-raised, the pot was t3000, thus laying the SB 3.3:1 on his last t900. He could reasonably have hands that would lead him to think he wasn't dominated, making a call here probably reasonable.
I could certainly have folded, but at the time I figured there was only a small chance I was dominated. It didn't occur to me til later that I probably underestimated the chance that I needed to dodge three overcards, rather than 2.
Ignoring the possibility that a Jack comes (which will happen 1/5 of the time in five cards if no one else has one), the probability that I'll see an overcard is 0.65, so the odds that I dodge an overcard are 2:1. Ignoring the possibility of undersets, straights and flushes (which is probably reasonable since my Jacks reduce the odds of higher straights considerably), this means that if I am facing three overcards I will win only 1/3 of the time (I think I will see a Jack about 10 percent of the time I see an overcard, but I'm prepared to ignore this boon as well as my own straight and flush possibilities for similar reasons to the above).
Put that argument together, and I am looking at 2:1 odds to win 2350 (including my blind) by risking 1550 in the compound event that (i) the SB calls and (ii) I am facing three overcards. If I am facing only two overcards or an underpair, I am at least tied and possibly way ahead.
So my push makes sense if the probability that I'm facing three overcards and the SB calls is low enough. How low? Well, if we assume I'm even money when not facing three overcards, my expectation if I push here is
P*(1/3)*4600 + (1-P)*[(1/2)*3700 + (1/2)*1600],
where P is the probability that when I push I'm called by the SB and I face 3 overcards.
Ignoring risk aversion due to the I'm-broke-I'm-done feature of tourneys, this expectation has to be greater than 2550 (what I'll have if I fold) for the push to make sense. By my
math, this means that I should push whenever
P < 0.91.
So if I think there's at least a 10% chance that either the SB will fold or I am facing only two overcards, then pushing is +EV. This actually makes me feel a lot better about the 3-OC situation, since I definitely would guess at least a 1/10 chance I'm facing a lower pair from one of these guys, or they have one overcard in common.
Do people agree with me about my assessment of this situation?
Jonah
Results below in white:
<font color="white">
UTG+1 had A-6 offsuit
SB had KQs
So my read was basically ok.
The flop came with a Queen, no K or A hit at all, and while I got four to a (winning) flush by the turn, the river didn't bring a Jack or my flush.
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