how long can I break even? stat king

My question is in regards to the real life results vs the statistical data on statking.

I have 1324 hours recorded on statking and I have a win rate of about 1BB/hr. The how long can I break even function says 1330 hours. That seems like a very high number.


What kind of numbers do you have for the how long can I break even? If you don't have statking,

what is the longest run in terms of hours that you have broken even? Thanks in advance.

what is your std. dev.?

12 BB

Statistics like this are also in my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics. Based on your estimated win rate and standard deviation, you can compute by the methods described (under certain assumptions which I think are reasonable) how many hours that are required to assure a win. I believe that this is the same statistic that Stat King gives. In many cases, the number is surprisingly large.


Best wishes,

Mason

I suppose part of it depends on what is meant by, "how long can I break even?" Theoretically, you could break even for the rest of your life; of course the chance of that happening is minute.


My guess is that the program figures out the amount of hours you need to play to have a certain confidence of being ahead. Based on the numbers you provided, my guess is that they find the number of hours you need to play to be ahead unless a -3 SD event or worse occurs.


To determine this, I set EV = 3*SD, and solved for the number of hours for which this equation holds true. When EV = 3SD, your actual results need to be -3 SD's or worse for you to be at break even or worse. Note that a -3 SD or worse event occurs about .14% of the time.


Based on your play:

EV = 1*x

SD = 12*sqrt(x)

(x = number of hours)


Set: EV = 3*SD

1*x = 3*(12*sqrt(x))

sqrt(x) = 36

x = 1296 hours


So after playing for 1296 hours you will be ahead unless a -3 SD or worse event has taken place, which happens .14% of the time (You will be ahead 99.86% of the time). Note that 1296 is close to the 1330 that StatKing provided. This is probably due to the fact that I used an EV of 1 BB/hr, and a SD of 12 BB/hr, whereas the actual numbers may differ slightly.


You may also wish to determine a different confidence interval. For example, you may wish to know how many hours you would have to play to be assured of being ahead x% of the time. You can use a z-table in a probability book to determine what value you need to use in the above equation, based on what percentage confidence you use (EV = z*SD). For example, for 1%, z = 2.33.


Solving the equation with EV = 2.33*SD, you get a result of 782 hrs.


I hope this made sense as I wrote it rather quickly. Also, if my logic is off, please correct me.


-- Homer J.