Overpair on low rag flop, fold to a push?

[Unarmed]

First hand of stars $5
I get 88 MP
1 limper to me, I follow suit, SB fold, BB checks, 3 to the flop of 234 rainbow. EP bets 20, I raise to pot, he pushes, I fold. Pretty standard?

[Fnord]

Small pot, I might not even fight for it without a set or read. Particularly if the flop is 2 suited.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Small pot, I might not even fight for it without a set or read. Particularly if the flop is 2 suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was sort of my thinking. But what do I put this guy on? Is this typical behavior for a flopped straight on a rainbow board? Seems like its way more likely I'm up against a set, Ax, or an overpair. Overpair (that beats me) I think I'd eliminate as 99 and up probably raises PF at the $5 table. Would a set really push there? In hindsight I think I was probably looking at 55 or Ax with the x probably a 2, 3, or 4 and I made a weak fold.

[betgo]

I agree 55 or Ax are likely hands he has. He could also have an overpair, probably higher than yours. At best it's a coin flip, which is most likely. At worst, you are completely beaten by a straight, a set or an overpair. It is not worth the risk. That is the power of the allin semibluff, which is probably what you are up against.

[Unarmed]

Anything wrong with this analysis?
Given no read on the opponent.

---------- Win % Prob W.A.
Ax-------- 64% 60% 38.4%
55-------- 60% 10% 6.0%
66-77----- 88% 10% 8.8%
99-AA------ 8% 10% 0.8%
Set--------- 8% 5% 0.4%
Straight----- 3% 5% 0.2%
Weighted Avg Win % = 54.6%

If all the % chances he has each hand seems reasonable (let me know if they're not, I want to know if my thinking is wrong here) then I should have called as I was actually a favorite to win the hand. (plus there was dead money in the pot) Win %s are from twodimes