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View Full Version : Flopping a set against flush draws


Zinzan
09-28-2004, 07:26 PM
I've recently been in tourneys against opponents who ALWAYS chase four to a flush. Had one opponent who would raise all-in with four to a flush. I called with a flopped set and lost. Should I have considered folding here, even when I was 90% sure she had a four flush?

More typical, I flop the set or two pair, make a pot-sized raise, and am called. Turn completes the flush, they raise all-in, and I am stuck.

Lately, I've been trying a different strategy--if I hit a set with two to a suit on board, I make a smaller raise that I expect to be called by the flush chaser. I figured if the flush card came on the turn, I could check and fold (if their bet hurt too much), and if the flush card didn't come, I would bet big. Unfortunately, these chasers call this bet, too (pot-sized or all-in) and hit their flush too often for comfort.

In cash games, it's easy enough to take the lumps, knowing over time, you make money off of these players. But in freeze-out tourneys, I seem to get burned more often than I like with these chasers.

Any advice? Comments?

Thanks,

-Z

donny5k
09-28-2004, 08:49 PM
What? You're going to fold a hand that is AT LEAST a 3:1 favorite on the flop? Check and folding on the turn isn't that great, because there's a decent enough chance (re: better than decent) that you still have the best hand, and if the pot odds are somewhat close you should call to try to make a full house. What better situation do you want to put your money in with heads up?

Edit: This is worse than the guy that said Lederer could have folded his set against Doyle's flush draw. You're talking about folding this in a low buy-in tournament, rather than the World Championship.

SossMan
09-28-2004, 09:05 PM
If you are that good that you can accurately put someone on exactly a flush draw simply because there are two of a suit on the board, then you should be playing much bigger tourneys where you don't have to worry about players making so many mistakes.

-SossMan

Rocaix
09-28-2004, 09:12 PM
Over bet the the pot, make the fish pay for their draws. If they hit, then oh well. You got your chips in as a favourite which is about all you can do.

Folding a set to possible flush or straight draws is beyond weak. Your going to be folding away strong +eV situations where your way ahead. These types of fish that will chase down on any draw is what makes poker profitable.

Don't be afraid of bad beats.

Zinzan
09-28-2004, 09:15 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If you are that good that you can accurately put someone on exactly a flush draw simply because there are two of a suit on the board, then you should be playing much bigger tourneys where you don't have to worry about players making so many mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, it's not that I'm so good, it's that this player was making the same play over and over again--she played any two suited, and would go all-in with the four flush. She slow-played her made hands.

I was an observer the first five times she did it--hitting 3 out of 5, and far out-chipping her opponents when she lost. Then she pulled it on me, and I called her. Bam. 4 out of 6, and I'm out after two+ hours work (225 out of 1400).

-Z

Zinzan
09-28-2004, 09:24 PM
Yeah, you guys are right. I usually play tight-aggressive, but a number of bad beats in a couple weeks, and I guess I am thinking weak.

And I had the odds wrong in my head, too--didn't realize I was that big of a favorite. Guess I forgot my full-house draws kill some of her flush outs?
<font color="blue">
pokenum -h th ts - 6c qc -- ac tc 4d

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Th 737 74.44 253 25.56 0 0.00 0.744
Qc 6c 253 25.56 737 74.44 0 0.00 0.256
</font>
-Z

swatsniper
09-28-2004, 11:16 PM
man u played that hand right,like one of the other guys said don't be afraid of bad beats,u were right along and for the guy who said u should be playing bigger tourneys my comment about that is u r a good player if u can read the other players because that is part of the game,right,right.