Pratical Poker Probability?

[VIO]

Ok I'm in the midst of reading "the Theory of Poker" and im understanding the concepts involved in when a call is correct (IE: the Pot odds are better then hand odds) But How do I figure out the odds im getting on my hand while sitting at the (NL hold em) poker table? Im not the fastest math whiz when it comes to complex calulations in my head, but I am good at, and enjoy, math. How do I figure out what the odds of my hand is in a way that can be done at the table. I can figure out my probabilty with paper the long way, im just looking for how to quickly pull aproximate odds for my hands out. Do I memerize, or is there and easy way to turn my Outs into odds?

Also I am unclear on how I turn percents into odds, if I have a 20% chance of catching my suited card to my four-flush how can I compare that to say, 5-1 pot odds

And a question on implied odds. From what I've read it almost seems like implied odds justify any call on a heads up play with an opponent you put on a big hand. If im on a straight draw with 2 to come and i think imy opponent has two-pair do i call any raise on the notion that if I catch it I will win alot?

Ok last one, It would seem to me that a game where little raising before the flop is done or only little amounts ( .20 on top of a .20 BB call in a 5$ buy in for example) that nearly all hole cards won't recieve proper pot odds, to make any call. Does this fall into the catagory of implied odds?

[uuDevil]

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Ok I'm in the midst of reading "the Theory of Poker" and im understanding the concepts involved in when a call is correct (IE: the Pot odds are better then hand odds) But How do I figure out the odds im getting on my hand while sitting at the (NL hold em) poker table? Im not the fastest math whiz when it comes to complex calulations in my head, but I am good at, and enjoy, math. How do I figure out what the odds of my hand is in a way that can be done at the table. I can figure out my probabilty with paper the long way, im just looking for how to quickly pull aproximate odds for my hands out. Do I memerize, or is there and easy way to turn my Outs into odds?

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I recommend just memorizing these. The 2+2 poster LostWages has a nice chart you can print out here. (http://home.houston.rr.com/texasholdempoker/odds.htm)


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Also I am unclear on how I turn percents into odds, if I have a 20% chance of catching my suited card to my four-flush how can I compare that to say, 5-1 pot odds

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This won't be necessary if you memorize the odds for a flush draw, but to get odds do this calculation:
(100-percentage)/percentage.
So 20% is (100-20)/20 to 1, or 4:1.

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And a question on implied odds. From what I've read it almost seems like implied odds justify any call on a heads up play with an opponent you put on a big hand. If im on a straight draw with 2 to come and i think imy opponent has two-pair do i call any raise on the notion that if I catch it I will win alot?

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I'm not a NL player, but this seems like it could get you into trouble. If your opponent bets such that you do not have pot odds to draw, you may be able to justify the call based on implied odds but you have to be sure that he will pay you off if you make your hand. The extra amount you expect to win when you make your hand must make up for the shortfall in pot odds and also allow some extra for the times you make your hand but still lose.

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Ok last one, It would seem to me that a game where little raising before the flop is done or only little amounts ( .20 on top of a .20 BB call in a 5$ buy in for example) that nearly all hole cards won't recieve proper pot odds, to make any call. Does this fall into the catagory of implied odds?

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Yes. If the pot is small, you often won't have pot odds to draw, particularly when you have a weaker draw like overcards or a gutshot.

[VIO]

Thanks for the reply I printed out a copy of the Chart and I'm working on it but I do have a few math questions about it...

First a general math Question, I convert odds to percents by doing
X:1 = 1/X
20:1 = 1/20 = 5%

Am I correct?

Ok now on to some chart questions for some of the hands to give odds for catching one of your outs by the river as less then 1:1. For example: a flush draw with an open-end straight draw with 2 over cards has a .43-1 odds for flop-river for catching a flush/straight or top pair. Meaning 100% percent of the time I will catch at least one of my outs by the river, that doesn’t make sense.

Also the chart doesn’t give back-door odds for flushes/straights why is that is it even worth knowing, or is it simply an auto fold situation drawing for them?

Here’s one more real quick one. In “The Theory of Poker” the odds for getting a set with PP on the flop is 8-1, the chart shows that if you miss a set on the flop you now have a 22.5-1 chance of getting it on the turn. Do your odds really shrink that much after 3 cards?

[BruceZ]

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First a general math Question, I convert odds to percents by doing
X:1 = 1/X
20:1 = 1/20 = 5%

Am I correct?

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No. X:1 = 1/(X+1) : 1
20:1 = 1/21 = 4.76%
19:1 = 1/20 = 5%


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Ok now on to some chart questions for some of the hands to give odds for catching one of your outs by the river as less then 1:1. For example: a flush draw with an open-end straight draw with 2 over cards has a .43-1 odds for flop-river for catching a flush/straight or top pair. Meaning 100% percent of the time I will catch at least one of my outs by the river, that doesn’t make sense.

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That's not what it means. 1:1 is a 50% chance or even money. Odds of less than 1:1 against you simply mean that you are a favorite. Odds of .43:1 against you are the same as 1:.43 in your favor which is 2.33:1 in your favor.


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Also the chart doesn’t give back-door odds for flushes/straights why is that is it even worth knowing, or is it simply an auto fold situation drawing for them?

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If all you have is a backdoor flush or straight, then it is almost always an auto-fold since you would need pot odds of about 23:1. However, a backdoor draw combined with other outs, like middle or bottom pair or a gutshot draw is often enough to swing a fold into a call, especially if you have an overcard. Since it always takes two cards to complete the backdoor draws, there is not a straightforward way to assign it a number of outs. Many people count it as 1 out since that would rougly correspond to 23:1 with two cards to come; however, it is not exactly the same as having a single out you can hit on the turn. Some people count it as 1.5 outs, and perhaps even 2 outs, depending on the situation. Counting it as 1 out should keep you out of trouble and be sufficiently accurate. Just make sure that your other outs are solid.


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Here’s one more real quick one. In “The Theory of Poker” the odds for getting a set with PP on the flop is 8-1, the chart shows that if you miss a set on the flop you now have a 22.5-1 chance of getting it on the turn. Do your odds really shrink that much after 3 cards?

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The odds shrink a lot because you have 3 chances to make your set on the flop due to 3 cards, and only one chance on the turn.

[uuDevil]

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First a general math Question, I convert odds to percents by doing
X:1 = 1/X
20:1 = 1/20 = 5%

Am I correct?

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X:1 is 1/(X+1)
So 19:1 is 1/(19+1)=.05
but 20:1 is 1/(20+1)=.0476

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Ok now on to some chart questions for some of the hands to give odds for catching one of your outs by the river as less then 1:1. For example: a flush draw with an open-end straight draw with 2 over cards has a .43-1 odds for flop-river for catching a flush/straight or top pair. Meaning 100% percent of the time I will catch at least one of my outs by the river, that doesn’t make sense.

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.43:1 is 1/(.43+1)=0.699 so you have about a 70% chance to make the draw.

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Also the chart doesn’t give back-door odds for flushes/straights why is that is it even worth knowing, or is it simply an auto fold situation drawing for them?

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These add a small but significant amount of value to your hand and are definitely worth knowing. From the notes at the bottom of the chart.

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1) Example hands chosen have no backdoor straight or flush draws. A backdoor straight or flush adds the equivalent of about 2 outs each to flop draws that will be taken to the river.


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Ed Miller recommends counting the bd fl draw as 1.5 outs and a bd st draw as .5-1.5 outs depending on the number of gaps. I think Ed's numbers are better in practice.

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Here’s one more real quick one. In “The Theory of Poker” the odds for getting a set with PP on the flop is 8-1, the chart shows that if you miss a set on the flop you now have a 22.5-1 chance of getting it on the turn. Do your odds really shrink that much after 3 cards?

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Yes. On the flop you see 3 cards any one of which could make a set for you. On the turn you only see one.

Edit: Whoops. BruceZ is the better/faster man. I yield.

[BruceZ]

Sorry to teach in stereo. I looked for you first, and it didn't look like you were around.

[uuDevil]

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Sorry to teach in stereo. I looked for you first, and it didn't look like you were around.

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I aspire to be a TA at best. I'm currently invisible, but I will remedy that. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[VIO]

great thanks for the replies! I'm slowly realizing my lack of true understanding of odds, lets see if I can get this

1-1 becomes 1/(1+1) = .5
and 1-0 is 100%
While 2-1 isn't 50% its 33% interesting

I think im getting it now!

How do you guys organize your brain so to speak at the poker table seems like alot to keep track of the pot total and pot odds, and to also be watching the other players for tells, and patterns. How do you go about taking it all in? Is there a way to practice effectivly? I've noticed that still I've been trying to work the odds into my play (instead of just plan watching the other players and the cards) I haven't been playing as well I think its because I just have to bu to much of my energy into doing the odds in a reasonable amount of time that I can't focus on the other people, or play diciplined enough to fold hands I wouldn't play normally. What kind of advice can you guys give me? thanks in advance

[uuDevil]

Practice by dealing out hands to yourself. Practice by while playing by counting the money going into the pot etc. on hands after you have folded. Pay the most attention to the most important things. Pot odds and drawing odds are very important. Tells are not worth that much. There is definitely a lot to keep track of and it can be overwhelming at first, but it becomes easier as you get more experience.