Mucked AA pre-flop. Non-Satellite

[chuddo]

Curious as to thoughts on this hand and situation. Sorry for no specifics regarding stack sizes and blinds, but their actual values shouldn't be too paramount.

You are playing in a 4-table (40-man) tourney. With 19-20 players left you find yourself on a slightly larger than average stack. The blind sizes and level duration are VERY favorable towards the better players as they are not escalating to the point of a crapshoot. You are familiar with many of the players and consider yourself one of the top 3 or so players and feel very confidant in your chances to hit the top end of the payout.

On the Button you look down to find A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Great, Aces. But then the following action occurs in front of you:

UTG (weak-tight) opens for about 4xBB
UTG+1 (wild but good) doubles the raise most likely to isolate and push any flop to take it from UTG.
MP1 (table chip leader) turns to UTG+1 and asks how much he has left in order to raise enough to set him in. Then decides "well I'll just go all-in", and does so.
MP2 (other guy you consider a great player, also has you out-chipped) immediately calls and is All-In.
MP3 (smallish stack) starts laughing and says "best hand I've seen all night and there are five million raises in front of me. I call"
Others fold to you.

You know you are facing most likely every broadway pair. UTG and UTG+1 are counting down their stacks and appear to be calling. But more importantly, you know that MP2 would not call-all in in a pot in which he has nothing invested, and is faced with a raise, a re-raise, and a re-re-raise all-in unless he has AA. So you know that at best you are playing for half the pot if you call, and will be most likely busted out if your hand doesn't hold. Folding will leave you with a healthy stack relative to the blinds and levels.

What is your action?

The hands turned out to be:
UTG: QQ
UTG+1: 99
MP1: KK
MP2: AA
MP3: JJ
You: AA

TwoDimes %
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 12748 1.94 456893 69.44 188367 28.63 0.161
As Ac 8482 1.29 461159 70.08 188367 28.63 0.155
Ks Kc 143114 21.75 512481 77.88 2413 0.37 0.218
Qd Qh 117336 17.83 538259 81.80 2413 0.37 0.179
9s 9c 90784 13.80 564811 85.84 2413 0.37 0.139
Jc Jh 97177 14.77 558418 84.86 2413 0.37 0.148

[Jackarama_]

i would have pushed em in here,what was the result?

[Rick Diesel]

The only way that I fold here is if I am 100% sure that one of the other players has the other aces. If you are sure that was the case, then a fold is correct. In any other situation, or if you are not 100% sure, then I call.

Rick Diesel

[Klak]

great call that most other people wouldnt be able to make. with that many people in a pot that big, even aces only gives you about a 20-30% chance to win. you give yourself a better chance of finishing in the money here by folding since you have a dencent stack and have no need to get involved with that type of gambling.

[SossMan]

Unless you are 100% sure that this action wouldn't occur without aces in there somewhere, you have to call.

If you feel that confident, then muck away. Just realize that it's pretty expensive if you are wrong.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
great call that most other people wouldnt be able to make. with that many people in a pot that big, even aces only gives you about a 20-30% chance to win. you give yourself a better chance of finishing in the money here by folding since you have a dencent stack and have no need to get involved with that type of gambling.

[/ QUOTE ]

arggggggghhhh!!!

I promised myself I wouldn't get sucked into another fold AA preflop discussion for at least a week.

[ohkanada]

Folding AA in this situation is a crime.

You should be banished from playing tournies.

There have been NUMEROUS threads on folding Aces. Some of these threads even discussed getting aces on your 1st hand for the 10k WSOP event and having all opponents go all-in before you.

If you do a search in RGP or here you should find one of them. Paul Phillips was primary in a very comical thread about the same situation.

Ban yourself from playing until you understand why you should call and call quick.

Ken

[ripdog]

The only way I fold AA here is if I'm at the final table on a short stack and there's a good possibility that I'll move 3 to 5 spots up the prize ladder, otherwise I'm all-in in a hurry.
Since you did not indicate that this was the situation here, I think you made a huge blunder. I'm not sure which is worse, 99 and JJ calling here or you folding your bullets. Sigh.

[gergery]

Never fold AA preflop. Ever.

That advice might be wrong once or twice in your lifetime in extremely rare circumstances.

Instead, spend your time, energy and posting space thinking about the many, many, many other situations that are costing you far more chips on a regular basis.

--Greg

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
Never fold AA preflop. Ever.

That advice might be wrong once or twice in your lifetime in extremely rare circumstances.

Instead, spend your time, energy and posting space thinking about the many, many, many other situations that are costing you far more chips on a regular basis.

--Greg

[/ QUOTE ]

please listen to this

[The4thFilm]

The site would only get half the traffic if mucking AA and KK preflop discussions were eliminated.

[chuddo]

Well as simple as a situation this is, there are already a couple of differing opinions.

Like I said, when the action gets to you, you are 100% sure that the guy/friend you know well would never, ever set his money in after that action and with that immediacy. So you are 100% sure the other AA is out there, and that about 5 people are seeing the flop.

This was the reason I asked.

Another is I'm sure someone could easily do a "well if you call here and win half the pot 20% of the time to give you $X in chips then you will win Y% but if you fold to leave yourself with $W in chips Z% of the time you will win W% of the time" type of analysis.

[RayGarlington]

Come on chuddo, admit it. You made up this situation to stir up the Pooh-Bahs, old hands and addicts.

Since you knew your outs were tied up, you folded correctly.

Ray
(stranger & hack)

[Cleveland Guy]

Is this real or theoretical?

If it's real - who was dealing? I'd wonder how he stacked the deck. Escpcially if it comes out 257r on the flop.

[Bernas]

If you are afraid to get your money in with AA than why play no limit? Go play limit poker.

[chuddo]

No, this is real, and not posted just to stir people up.

And like I said, already in this thread there was a differing of opinions.

Of course, "absolutely never fold AA pre-flop" is pretty simple advice that is going to be correct 99.6% of the time; but I think that there is a clear arguement for folding be the more +$EV play here.

[Cleveland Guy]

Even with all these people in the pot you are still up against 6 outs (2Ks, 2Js, 2 9s)

So it's roughly the same as if you had a PP vs. 2 over cards.
And since there are 5 people in the pot a split pot is still a double up plus a few extra chips.

The chances of a straight and flush here are also slim, as many of the cards to make a straight are already in play, and any flush would have to be a 4 card flush.

[chuddo]

8 outs. you forgot QQ.

[SossMan]

One of the huge factors here that nobody has addressed is the fact that it will be 5 handed and you are 100% sure that the other AA is out there. Given this info, folding should be pretty easy.
This is different from the typical theoretical 9 all in's in front of you on hand 1 of the WSOP.

[rickthekeg]

If you think there is a chance UTG and UTG+1 will fold (they are not pot-committed) then I say push. Here is the twodimes results if the 9's fold and the Q's call:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 13858 2.11 376785 57.26 267365 40.63 0.223
As Ac 8674 1.32 381969 58.05 267365 40.63 0.215
Ks Kc 145569 22.12 509064 77.36 3375 0.51 0.222
Qd Qh 120863 18.37 533770 81.12 3375 0.51 0.185
Jc Jh 101679 15.45 552954 84.03 3375 0.51 0.156

[MrX]

okay, correct this thought and math if you belive I am wrong.


We will assume all relatively equal stacks and use T1000.

this gives a total pot of 6000.

28.6 % of time you split and win 3000 (+2000)
~1.6% of time you win and get 6000 (+5000)
69.8% of time lose and get 0 (-1000)

so your expected total chip count after the hand is (28.6% * 3000) + (1.6% * 9600) + (69.8% * 0)/ 100

this equals 954.

clearly in this specific scenario of all 6 people calling this is a -EV scenario.

Basically it boils down to: you have a less than 30% chance of tripling your stack.

In reality I would find it hard to believe both the 99 and QQ call if you push quickly also. I push my chips in here without much thought in a real non-satellite tourney, but in your specific situation if you are 100% sure there is an AA out and the 2 after you will call, it would be -EV to call.

MrX

[RayGarlington]

The problem is the 70% chance of ending up with zero. Remember that when he originally framed the situation, he said he could outplay the field and would likely end up in the final 3 or so... no need to blow it here.

[theWhale]

I think that is a terrible play.

I will have to redo the math(saw something similar on another forum) but this is an obvious call. IF you can find a single pro that would lay this hand down I would be stunned.

(Edited title, was too harsh, I have made way worse plays)

[Paul Phillips]

As pointless and repetitive as most discussions of folding AA preflop are, it's worth noting that this guy has found a situation where it's at least worth considering.

[ QUOTE ]
But more importantly, you know that MP2 would not call-all in in a pot in which he has nothing invested, and is faced with a raise, a re-raise, and a re-re-raise all-in unless he has AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't that far-fetched. I know players who would be 100% to have AA in that circumstance. So if we have no money invested in the pot and we KNOW AA is out there, how does that change things? It depends partly on the other stacks. If there is going to be a meaningful 3-way side pot between you, the other AA, and a third hand, then that alone is probably enough to force a call because you're probably about 40% in the side pot. And if you have the other AA substantially covered you must call.

But what if everyone has roughly equal stacks, and the earlier raisers are pot-committed and calling regardless of the action? Since all the aces are locked up nobody has a big ace, so barring some real gamblers being present everyone has a pair. Given the action I'd invent these as plausible hand ranges.

AA, AA, KK-JJ, KK-JJ, KK-88, KK-22.

Given that assumption you will be a relatively small money favorite, with a little over 18% pot equity. So on a pure chip basis you should call, but if it is late enough in the tournament you can make a case for avoiding this gamble. To consider folding you have to genuinely *know* that MP2 has AA. If you aren't certain he will fold KK and AK you give up too much by folding. Yet those players do exist.

Also if some people might be coming in with undominated suited connectors, your equity will drop a fair bit. Being up against all pairs is the best realistic situation.

Apologies if there is absolutely nothing insightful to be found in this long-winded and meandering post either...

[adanthar]

I'd have autocalled regardless of anything else. There's one thing no one's mentioned, though: assuming UTG doesn't have you covered, you're only really scared of the kings and the occasional other AA's 4 flush. You have UTG+1 covered (by how much?) and MP3 doesn't have the stack to be a factor.

BTW, it's entirely possible that a)one or more of their pairs is duplicated, too, and b)UTG+1 folds. If UTG has KK and not QQ, this is not nearly as close.

[chuddo]

I appreciate the responses (particularly Mr. X and Paul) to this thread.

The two key factors to this hand were that my stack was very healthy and the structure very deliberate. I was in no hurry to accumulate chips for an eventual 'blinds-too-high crapshoot'. Most importantly though was knowing, 100%, that the other AA was out there. The reason was because they happened to be in the hand of a player I know well and respect. He had a nice stack as well and would have most likely tossed AKs and QQ under this action and would have, at the very least, deliberated for a second if he was holding KK.

When the action came to me I decided to pass, saying of course "You all will absolutely not believe what I am folding."

To be results oriented:
The QQ called and the 99 folded. When the hands were rolled and I turned over the folded AA everyone was of course kind of shocked and laughing and wondering what the hell I was doing. So a 9 flops on the board and the guy that folded 99 starts bemoaning his 'horrible fold' with "I KNEW I should have called". As soon as these words are out of his mouth a K hits the turn and that notched the hand for the KK.

I ended up having a nice run for the rest of the tourney and finished 3rd after my a flopped set ran into a top-pair/nut-flush draw that ran me down.

The only thing that bothered me about the lay down is having to continually hear when I fold a hand someone being oh-so-clever with "folding Aces this time?" at least five times a night.

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that bothered me about the lay down is having to continually hear when I fold a hand someone being oh-so-clever with "folding Aces this time?" at least five times a night.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I enjoyed this story, and whether or not I agree with the fold (not sure /images/graemlins/confused.gif) I applaude the discipline to make the fold.
However if you had the forsight to know MP2 had AA then you should have also known to expect a little chiding for showing the fold. /images/graemlins/wink.gif I suspect it pays off for you in the long run with this group.

-Jarid

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the huge factors here that nobody has addressed is the fact that it will be 5 handed and you are 100% sure that the other AA is out there. Given this info, folding should be pretty easy.
This is different from the typical theoretical 9 all in's in front of you on hand 1 of the WSOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if the other AA flipped up his cards and you know you chop, your equity is still very close to an EV+ situation for you.

But you are still losing tons of chips on the other hands that you would have gotten better at playing if you weren't effin around with this AA preflop crap.

[chuddo]

[ QUOTE ]

But you are still losing tons of chips on the other hands that you would have gotten better at playing if you weren't effin around with this AA preflop crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know how "well" I play my other hands? What a douchebag comment. Perchance I have have reached the point where I am such an incredibly perfect player that I know how to perfectly play every possible hand on every possible board from every position against any type of player. Maybe I am SO incredible at no-limit poker (and life in general) that the only situation I even had to consider was this exact one regarding chucking AA pre-flop.

Or maybe you are just an [censored].

p.s. Thank you oh so much for your incredible insight into the game of poker. Will you adopt me?

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

But you are still losing tons of chips on the other hands that you would have gotten better at playing if you weren't effin around with this AA preflop crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know how "well" I play my other hands? What a douchebag comment. Perchance I have have reached the point where I am such an incredibly perfect player that I know how to perfectly play every possible hand on every possible board from every position against any type of player. Maybe I am SO incredible at no-limit poker (and life in general) that the only situation I even had to consider was this exact one regarding chucking AA pre-flop.

Or maybe you are just an [censored].

p.s. Thank you oh so much for your incredible insight into the game of poker. Will you adopt me?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not you personally. I will wager a years salary every poker player alive has at least 20 leaks in their game costing them more chips than whether to fold or keep AA preflop. And if you're going to make the above post, you ought to look at how often you go on tilt as well.

You posted asking for feedback, and you got good advice on where to focus on your game.

Grow some thicker skin.

--Greg

[Michael Davis]

"Of course, "absolutely never fold AA pre-flop" is pretty simple advice that is going to be correct 99.6% of the time; but I think that there is a clear arguement for folding be the more +$EV play here."

You didn't give the prize payout structure, but this would be important in determining this, and it would be extremely rare for you to be correct. Something like a pay 20 places with a very slow gradation from 20th to 1st.

-Michael

[donkeyradish]

Great story

If I really was 100% certain someone else had AA I guess I'd be torn between calling a large sum and folding with AA in a multiway pot. But such a situation must be very unusual.

I definitely think you shouldn't have showed your cards afterwards though!

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
IF you can find a single pro that would lay this hand down I would be stunned.


[/ QUOTE ]

In light of some of his recent statements I would be surprirsed if Phil Hellmuth didn't fold here.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
IF you can find a single pro that would lay this hand down I would be stunned.


[/ QUOTE ]

consider yourself stunned