10/20 ATs Hand My Friend Played

[sthief09]

my friend played Turning Stone 10/20 and is questioning his play on this hand.

UTG is the opponent. He's reasonably tight but plays unsuited big cards like KTo or KJo too much. He doesn't like open-raising, so he open limps a lot in EP and MP. Basically, he's trying to play well but really doesn't know how.

Hero has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the BB

UTG limps, 4 limpers, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets (this came as a surprise), everyone calls

Flop K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif (6 players, 18 BB)

Hero...


it's hard for him to say what the chances are that this guy was limp-reraising with AA or KK, as opposed to something worse, since he knwos the result. just assume that it's very likely, but not out of the question.

[bisonbison]

18 SB. I would bet into the limp reraiser.

[Evan]

I would think this is a good spot to check-raise. I really can't see UTG not betting here and it's unlikely that anyone will fold getting 20-1. If this is all true, he'll be getting 5-1 on his raise, when he's slightly better than 5-1 to hit the nuts on the turn. Of course there's always the possibility that UTG will 3bet and possibily knock out the field, but I wouldn't let that stop me form what seems like an obvious play.
I suppose that if the 26 /images/graemlins/club.gif pairs we'll have to proceed with caution. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Festus22]

Why? Hope he raises and folds off the field? To clean up 3 ace outs that may not be good anyway?

I'd look to checkraise this and would be interested in a reason why one wouldn't want to trap as many callers as possible with the nut flush draw.

[Gatts]

If someone has a pair of 26s, you're farked.

I bet. Hope I can clean up some Ace outs. Not likely, but worth a shot. If it gets raised and called in more than one spot, 3-bet.

Check-raising is also a good option, but I think everyone's calling anyway.

[bisonbison]

If people fold and it increases your odds of winning the pot slightly, I don't mind. If people call giving me value for my flush draw, that's good. I don't think people will fold if he raises and it gives me a chance to 3-bet.

[Evan]

I don't understand why you wouldn't check-raise here, it seems like it's striaght out of SSH.

[sthief09]

well if he has a 90% chance of having AA or KK, then our only way of winning without the nuts 90% of the time (assuming our broadway will be the nuts, ignoring the club on the board) is runner runner TT to crack aces.

[bisonbison]

hehe, I feel the same way about betting.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raising is also a good option, but I think everyone's calling anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

You want them to call. You'd be getting 5-1 an a draw that's like 4.7-1 to hit the nuts on the turn. Trying to clear the field here is pointless.

[Gatts]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you wouldn't check-raise here, it seems like it's striaght out of SSH.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think many people are folding for 2 bets on the flop.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check-raising is also a good option, but I think everyone's calling anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

You want them to call. You'd be getting 5-1 an a draw that's like 4.7-1 to hit the nuts on the turn. Trying to clear the field here is pointless.

[/ QUOTE ]


more accurately, you're 1.86-1 to make a flush by the river, or whatever it is for the nuts. we're seeing the river and it should be considered.

[Gatts]

I don't mean they'll call I checkraise. I mean they'll call 2 on the flop.

[Evan]

I think some will

[Evan]

Explain why, and don't say to clean up out because there is a VERY good chance that A's are bad and there's an even better chance that T's are worthless too.

[Evan]

If you agree that you're not trying to thin the field then there is absolutely no reason to bet. You know UTG will bet and you can dafely get everyone to call 2 bets with a check-raise. Betting doens't make sense.

[bisonbison]

I don't know, I guess I'm thinking of this in terms of online play. If his read says that 90% of the time this l-rr must mean AA or KK, then check-raising is the way to go, but if he'd ever do this with QQ, JJ or somesuch, I think betting is better. (edit: because you may clean up outs and failing to clean up outs does you no harm)

This is my 4000th post.

[Gatts]

[ QUOTE ]
I think some will

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but then I'll be able to 3 bet with sufficient callers. I'd prefer it to be capped 4 ways than 2 bets six-ways.

I think check-raising is safer, but I think betting out maximizes the money going into the pot overall.

Edit: I'm pretty much on the fence but just playing Devil's advocate here. If I was sure everyone would fold to two bets, I'd definitely check-raise. If I felt most of everyone else is calling 2, I'm betting. I think more often people are calling 2 in this pot anyway.

[JP2k1]

[ QUOTE ]
If you agree that you're not trying to thin the field then there is absolutely no reason to bet. You know UTG will bet and you can dafely get everyone to call 2 bets with a check-raise. Betting doens't make sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think in this situation, you gain much more (and build a bigger pot in all likelihood) by check-raising rather than betting and conceivably thinning the field. It's possible that no one will fold for 2 bets cold, but I see no reason to put anyone to that decision. Doesn't seem like protecting your vulnerable "outs" is your priority here.

[SpaceAce]

I don't like all this talk of betting out. This is a perfect spot to check-raise a shitload of money into the pot when you're drawing to the nuts.

SpaceAce

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know, I guess I'm thinking of this in terms of online play. If his read says that 90% of the time this l-rr must mean AA or KK, then check-raising is the way to go, but if he'd ever do this with QQ, JJ or somesuch, I think betting is better. (edit: because you may clean up outs and failing to clean up outs does you no harm)

This is my 4000th post.

[/ QUOTE ]


that was my reaction. first he ran down the situation, told me he bet, and I said "good job." then he told me the guy is loose and passive, and doesn't like open raising. now I feel like check-raising is best because your A outs are good only something like 2-5% of the time.

congrats, not hopefully Sample Size Man won't have to reach 4,000.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd prefer it to be capped 4 ways than 2 bets six-ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not going to get capped 4 ways first of all, so stop thinking it will. I know these players probably aren't good, but we have to be realistic here. Getting 2 bets 6 ways is ideal here. You're geting 5-1 on your money as a 4.75-1 dog to have the NUTS on the TURN. Can someone actually give a good, realistic reason to bet this flop? Bison, I'm looking at you.

[exist]

i'd say this is a clear checkraise. the only way i see this "clear up your ace outs (CUYAO)" idea working is if it checked to LP and you check raise making the limp reraiser fold AQ, AJ. otherwise i think CUYAO is not important here. try to get as many bets from as many people as possible in on this flop.

[bisonbison]

Bison, I'm looking at you.

Ruh roh!

Um. I already explained my reasoning, sans percentage read on how often this is AA or KK. If you bet and UTG raises:

A) the remaining players are unlikely to fold in a large pot, so you get value on your huge draw.
B) you can 3-bet.
C) If you can fold a hand with any piece of the board and increase your chances of winning this hand sans flush, it's really good.

That's it. I already explained this, and I think the strategy has more value the more hands he'd l-rr here. If it's really a 95% chance that you can't win without the flush, then clearly c/ring is better, but I don't know that I trust that percentage.

[Gatts]

I'm just wondering what the most common situation is when we bet out. We've pretty much established we'll face the field with 2 cold. How much is it thinning the field? Are we even sure everyone's calling one on the flop anyway?

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
A) the remaining players are unlikely to fold in a large pot, so you get value on your huge draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, this is the second time this has been said. Am I the only one that think that forving the field to call to cold here is gonna knock out at least 2 of them?

[bisonbison]

Evan, it's all hinging on point C. And that hinges on your read of his limp-reraising standards. You're acting like betting is the craziest thing you've heard all week, but I said if you're dead certain this is KK or AA, then c/ring is the way to go.

[Evan]

I guess when i leave the confines of party and go to a live game i'm used to very passive play where a limp reraise always means AA or KK, usually AA.

[sthief09]

give Nate is avatar back

[chesspain]

Betting out can't be right here. In fact, Feeney talks about the common mistake of a player with a flopped flush draw betting into a preflop raiser, who then predictably raises the flop to severely narrow the field.

[thirddan]

i think that saying bettting out cannot be correct here is a poor statement. At a table that is very loose betting out can be right even if you know the PFR with raise because due to the size of the pot many people will call two, and some of them will be correct to do so...BTW i think that betting out and going for a c/r are ok in this hand...

[Trix]

Check and raise if for value.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
18 SB. I would bet into the limp reraiser.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good Lord betting out here is bad. Not just bad, really bad. Betting into a likely raise isn't going to clean up your outs at all. You're going to win this pot when you hit your nut flush, and not very often otherwise.

On a scale of 1-10 (if 10 means betting is inarguably the best play and 5 means it doesn't matter), I rate betting out as a 1.5. And that's generous.

Check, and if you get 3 or more callers then raise. If you get only two, then just call.

[sthief09]

OK, this one is basically a landslide in favor or check-raising. He bet the flop for some reason, and I agree with chesspain's comments and his mentioning Inside the Poker Mind. If there was something like a 75% chance he had AA/KK, and 25% some other crap like a pair or suited connector, or just trash, then I'm all for betting to clean up outs. In this case, he'll have AA or KK far too often to beat. even if a K didn't flop, you can make a case for betting to clean up the A. But betting when you can't win without the nuts to clean up outs doesn't make a lot of sense.

So the guy had AA and he didn't improve.

[bisonbison]

On a scale of 1-10 (if 10 means betting is inarguably the best play and 5 means it doesn't matter), I rate betting out as a 1.5. And that's generous.

I can see I'm on the minority side here, but I really think you're overstating your case because of the whole "likelihood of KK/AA" thing that I've already mentioned. I think the likelihood of him having not AA/KK is higher than is being supposed. I understand check-raising for value. I really do.

[MicroBob]

I like C/R-ing this too....but in some live games it wouldn't be unheard of to either get it capped 4 or 5 way OR to go the other way which would be thinning the field and actually helping the chances for your A outs.

I think betting here is best if you think there is a decent chance you can get a couple callers in for 2-cold....and if you do think this then there is a decent chance they will cap when it comes back. This is for a pretty loose table obviously...but with a bunch of drunks at Turning Stone that wouldn't be such an unlikely occurance.

The other factor is if you think the UTG is just an idiot who has made really unusual plays. That would significantly lower the chance that he's doing this with AA/KK.


I still C/R this....but there are situations where I would consider betting out.

[Luke]

My preferred line on this hand would be to CR the flop.

Based on our read of UTG, he seems "reasonable" and would likely only limp-reraise with hands like AA, KK, AKs, QQ, AQs, or JJ - with the first few the most likely.

Also, stheif09 mentioned that this player "doesn't like open-raising" much so that leads me to believe he's at least somewhat passive. In that case, would he raise the BB's flop bet with a hand like QQ or AQs on this flop? Probably not, but he may bet them when checked to, to set up your CR.

However, he will likely raise with AA, KK, and AKs, hands that leave you drawing merely to the flush.

Obviously, my plan to CR has a lot to do with my read of UTG so if you change that up, you could easily argue against the CR.

Anwyay, good thread...

Luke

[Victor]

Checkraise the limpreraiser on the flop and trap all the limpers with the best draw and an ace overcard.

If you hit, bet the [censored] out of it. Do not get tricky. Check call if you miss.

[sfer]

I'm checking and counting 4 red chips.

[Evan]

Thank god.

[Victor]

By checkraising, the limpreraiser (probably with AA and def with KK) may 3-bet and all callers would be forced to call and then you can cap. Checkraising easily builds the biggest pot. This is a much larger consideration than cleaning up your outs (which are probably tainted anyway.)

[SA125]

A bet risks UTG raising and probably forcing out some of those other 4 limpers. Ch risks free card, which hurts your value more than your chances.

I'd guess at least 1 of those 4 limpers may have hit a piece of that flop or a draw and might make a play from LP looking for some folds. I'd go for the c/r.

[tpir90036]

Not sure why everyone is all over Bison here. Check-raising for value is obvious... we can all see it... he can see that... etc. But, if the game is loose/aggressive enough that Hero thinks he can get 3 or possibly 4 bets from everyone by betting out than I think it makes a lot of sense. For me it has nothing to do with cleaning up any outs.... it's just trying to get as many bets in as possible... in most games that would be done with a check-raise on the flop, natch.... However, I am sure we have all played in plenty of games where you might as well just bet out and let the fireworks go off since you already know you aren't folding.

That being said, without a good read of the table conditions, check-raising the flop is SOP. But we all knew that already.

-tpir

[TheHip41]

I'd check raise to build a pot. I'd be looking for diamonds that don't pair the board. 10's are probably no good, and an Ace might be good.

[Bob T.]

checks, planning on checkraising the field for value with his nut flush draw.

[InchoateHand]

Say he makes it on the turn, he's check-raising then, right? Just for kicks?

[Bob T.]

What I want to know then, is how many people called the flop raise, and did your friend threebet the flop?

[exist]

don't make me use the Five Point Palm Exploding Heart Technique on you.