This weeks big differences on the Lori line

[Lori]

First off, my reason for posting this is that I am only getting back into football this season after something like 12 years out of it and the only 'advantage' I have is lack of previous prejudice.

Last weeks major difference between my instinct and the real line was the Ravens, and although my numbers were nowhere near as close to the real lines this week, I thought it would be amusing to post the three that were more than four points out, just to see how they go.

#3 Jax +8 (+3.5 Actual)

I am well aware of how well Jax have played up to now, however the Colts just look great to me.
This may be an over reaction on my part, the Colts I know don't win football games, but these guys look good enough to score 21 past Anyone.... and that will win by eight.
It did take me longer than usual to think where to pitch this one, and I suspect I'd buy half a point if I were betting on it, just in case.

#2 Houston +7.5 (+2 Actual)

Seems like I'm way off base here, and looking through in hindsight I can see why.
However, I can't fathom only two points, even in hindsight, the Texans have managed to scrape one win without playing a side that can play football yet, at least Oakland seem vaguely competent.
I think HOU have been given too much credit for beating KC.
Which leads me nicely on to...

#1 Carolina +4 (-3.5 Actual)

I've looked again and again at this one, and cannot for the life of me see why anyone would give Atlanta points in this one.
Carolina beat the Chiefs, you know, that side that don't look like beating anyone all season.
They beat 'em good too, but so what.
Meanwhile, despite several red zone turnovers in this week's pathetic performance, Atlanta did still beat the awful Arizona, hammer the awful Rams and beat the awful 9ers.

I'll take the side that has beaten everything put in front of them every time, even if they have scraped home twice in those three wins.
I can adjust my line downward, but cannot bring myself to make CAR faves.

(Games with no comparison were NYG-GB, WAS-CLE and TEN-SD)

Again, as with many of my posts, I put this up here so we can all have a good laugh after the games, rather than serious advice, but I'd rather post it than say so after the event, come what may.

Please note, these are not 'official' tips by me.

Lori

[Gallopin Gael]

Lori, I love that you're posting these. I'm new to sports betting and it gives me an opportunity to see how my skills stack up as well.

[ QUOTE ]
#3 Jax +8 (+3.5 Actual)

I am well aware of how well Jax have played up to now, however the Colts just look great to me.
This may be an over reaction on my part, the Colts I know don't win football games, but these guys look good enough to score 21 past Anyone.... and that will win by eight.
It did take me longer than usual to think where to pitch this one, and I suspect I'd buy half a point if I were betting on it, just in case.

[/ QUOTE ]

JAX has beaten 2 teams that are for real and BUF. As a surprise at 3-0 they are certainly getting a lot of good press and that might be driving the line down a bit. They have a solid run D and should limit Edge (who is still a bit banged up). But in the end I think Payton has too many weapons headed downfield for JAX to contain them. I like the Colts to win by 6 or better and to only have to give up 3.5 seems like a steal.

[ QUOTE ]
#2 Houston +7.5 (+2 Actual)

Seems like I'm way off base here, and looking through in hindsight I can see why.
However, I can't fathom only two points, even in hindsight, the Texans have managed to scrape one win without playing a side that can play football yet, at least Oakland seem vaguely competent.
I think HOU have been given too much credit for beating KC.
Which leads me nicely on to...

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with your assessment of HOU's getting too much credit for beating the Chefs. The Chefs are pathetic. They still don't have a D (way to go Gunther) and the O is nowhere what it has been the last couple of years. They may actually have to punt when they play IND this year!! HOU's D made Drew Brees look like a viable NFL QB and Collins, not only has a week to practice with the first team, actually is a viable NFL QB. Al Davis is going to love this game. Deep throws all day long and Wheatley tearing up the clock on the ground. The Radiers D is only going to get better as the season progresses and with Davis listed as Questionable, they are going to sit back in coverage all day and wait for Carr to make a mistake or 3, at least when Rob Ryan isn't blitzing Chuck Woodson. I agree with your line (in terms of final score) and think that giving up 2 isn't too bad of a deal either.

Of course I'm a die hard member of the Raider Nation so this could all just be wishfull thinking. Although to be fair I did pick TB in the SB.

[ QUOTE ]
#1 Carolina +4 (-3.5 Actual)

I've looked again and again at this one, and cannot for the life of me see why anyone would give Atlanta points in this one.
Carolina beat the Chiefs, you know, that side that don't look like beating anyone all season.
They beat 'em good too, but so what.
Meanwhile, despite several red zone turnovers in this week's pathetic performance, Atlanta did still beat the awful Arizona, hammer the awful Rams and beat the awful 9ers.

I'll take the side that has beaten everything put in front of them every time, even if they have scraped home twice in those three wins.
I can adjust my line downward, but cannot bring myself to make CAR faves.

[/ QUOTE ]

The defending NFC Champs at home against a team learning a new offense. Foster is a work horse that Del Rio will ride all day long. I like CAR in this game, but think it's going to be in the 13-10 or 17-13 range, too close to be giving up 3.5.

Any thoughts and comments on my comments would be greatly appreciated.

[Lori]

Well I nailed Jax and took a very tidy and very easy profit on the money line at +160 on my #1 pick.

Got the Texans and/or Oakland utterly wrong though, I'll have to look at that one later.

Sadly the Titans let me down for the one that really mattered on the 3+1 challenge line and I suspect Easy will fire me (It was my fault it was so high, he wanted several lower)

Anyway, I'll keep at it and see how the Lori line goes.

Just a note to Gael.
Tonight or tomorrow morning is a good time to price your own lines, do it before you look at the actual lines and see which ones are massively different.
Whether this leads to picks or not is a different thing, but it's a good way to find what bets you will like best.

I actually had the courage to bet my #1 this week after last weeks, so it's worth a go.

Lori