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adios
09-28-2004, 03:55 AM
This was captures the essence of Social Security to me.

Would you sign a contract that enabled the other party to change the terms of that contract at will, while you could neither stop him nor make any changes of your own? Probably not. Yet that is exactly what happens when you pay money into Social Security.

No matter what you were promised or at what age you were supposed to get it, the government can always pass a new law that changes all of that. But you still have to pay into the system.

A private annuity plan run by an insurance company is legally required to pay you what was promised, when it was promised, and to maintain assets sufficient to redeem its promises.

and this:

Instead, Social Security has been run like a pyramid scheme, where the first people to pay in get money back from the second wave of people who pay in, and the second wave get money back from the third wave, etc. This is so risky that pyramid schemes are illegal -- except when the government does it.

Thomas Sowell for president!

Privatizing Social Security (http://www.townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/ts20040928.shtml)

Privatizing Social Security
Thomas Sowell (archive)

September 28, 2004 | printer friendly version Print | email to a friend Send

Would you sign a contract that enabled the other party to change the terms of that contract at will, while you could neither stop him nor make any changes of your own? Probably not. Yet that is exactly what happens when you pay money into Social Security.

No matter what you were promised or at what age you were supposed to get it, the government can always pass a new law that changes all of that. But you still have to pay into the system.

A private annuity plan run by an insurance company is legally required to pay you what was promised, when it was promised, and to maintain assets sufficient to redeem its promises.

One of the few issues on which Senator John Kerry has taken a stand and not changed it (yet) is Social Security. He has said: "I will not privatize Social Security."

This has long been the position of liberal Democrats, and John Kerry's voting record in the Senate makes him one of the very few Senators more liberal than Ted Kennedy. That is the ranking given by Americans for Democratic Action, a leading liberal organization that ought to know.

Why are liberals against letting people put part of their Social Security payments into private investments?

Risk is one of their arguments. Al Gore incessantly repeated the phrase "a risky scheme" during the 2000 election campaign and risk still seems to be the big objection to letting people put their own money where they want.

Some liberals may actually believe that politicians know what is best for you better than you know yourself. That is, after all, the philosophy behind many other government programs.

Another reason for liberal opposition to private investment of Social Security payments is that it deprives them of control of billions of dollars that they have been spending from the Social Security trust fund for years. They can buy a lot of votes with all sorts of giveaway programs, financed by money taken from Social Security.

As for the risk of making private investments, that might be a real concern if people were putting their money into commodity speculation or other volatile markets. Most people have better sense and privatization could limit where Social Security premiums could be invested.

Although the stock market bounces up and down from day to day, people are not investing today in order to retire next week. They begin paying Social Security premiums when they first get a job and they retire decades later.

Stocks are far less risky in the long run than they are in the short run because the ups and downs balance out over a long period of time. It is virtually impossible to find any 40-year period in which the stock market has not paid a higher rate of return on your money than you get from Social Security.

There are some mutual funds that simply buy a mixture of the stocks that make up the Dow Jones average (or Standard & Poor's), so that their clients will have the kind of return on their investments that the stock market as a whole has. They don't make a killing but they don't get killed either.

How did Social Security get into its present mess in the first place? Because politicians made it the "risky scheme" that they now claim privatization would be.

The same political expediency which caused Social Security to be called "insurance," in order to get public support, guaranteed that it would be nothing of the sort. Unlike an insurance company, Social Security has never had enough money to pay for all the pensions it promised.

Instead, Social Security has been run like a pyramid scheme, where the first people to pay in get money back from the second wave of people who pay in, and the second wave get money back from the third wave, etc. This is so risky that pyramid schemes are illegal -- except when the government does it.

They have gotten away with this thus far because the first generation covered by Social Security was an unusually small generation that was followed by the unusually large "baby boomer" generation. But when the baby boomers retire, the pyramid scheme will no longer bring in enough money to pay for their pensions.

Nothing is more risky than depending on politicians.

Kurn, son of Mogh
09-28-2004, 08:50 AM
The problem with keeping Social Security and putting the money into mutual funds or some other such vehicle is that it begins to look like government manipulation of capital markets.

When Roosevelt implemented SS, the median life expectancy in the US was just under 62. Not bad if you don't pay out until 65. For SS to work today the way it was intended, the government would have to withhold the collection of benefits until 90.

If you chnaged the rules thus to help SS make actuarial sense, I think the percentage of people who favored eliminating SS all together would rise significantly.

Abednego
09-28-2004, 10:55 AM
Let me say this about that:

Social Security is doomed to failure - simple as that.

I guess it is easier for me to come to terms with that fact than most because I have already collected more from it than I will ever pay in and I am not anywhere near retirement yet. I married a widow with three children (all adults now but the youngest was 11 when we married) whose late husband was active duty military when he was killed and the social security benefits she and her children received enhanced "our" lifestyle quite nicely. The benefits belonged to them but they certainly accrued my way as well.

But my point that the system is doomed is unquestionable. When it was created there were 12 to 15 workers (donators) for every single recipient. Now the ratio is 3 or 4 to 1 and declining. When it is 2:1 or 1:1 something or someone will have to give and no one will be neither willing or able.

adios
09-28-2004, 10:58 AM
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with keeping Social Security and putting the money into mutual funds or some other such vehicle is that it begins to look like government manipulation of capital markets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give people the discretion to do with the money they earned to do with it what they want. I know I'm preaching to the choir.

TorontoCFE
09-28-2004, 01:58 PM
The problem with letting everyone run around managing their own money is that, as everyone knows, there will be a certain portion of society that will be unable to look after themselves - they will be defrauded, make poor choices, gamble it away, etc.
Then we will have those people living in poverty as they age and there will be an outcry that society has a duty to help them out.
One way or another, everyone will end up having a portion of their tax dollars go there.

adios
09-28-2004, 03:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with letting everyone run around managing their own money is that, as everyone knows, there will be a certain portion of society that will be unable to look after themselves - they will be defrauded, make poor choices, gamble it away, etc.
Then we will have those people living in poverty as they age and there will be an outcry that society has a duty to help them out.
One way or another, everyone will end up having a portion of their tax dollars go there.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this justifys Social Security a system that will run out of money eventually, in other words it can't deliver on it's promises so people won't get back what they put in? Again I'm almost certain that people who simply bought government bonds in lieu of handing over their money to the government would do better than they would on Social Security. If that's the case there certainly can be an argument that government money spent bailing out those that don't bother saving would be easily handled.

CCass
09-28-2004, 03:49 PM
Yes, some people will mismanage their retirement, and there would be public outcry for the government to "do something".

So I offer this as a possible solution. Let me invest my 7.65%, and keep the 7.65% paid by my employer going to the government.

Actually, I would prefer that businesses not pay any "payroll taxes", but I don't think the government would give up that gravy train.

sam h
09-28-2004, 04:49 PM
Here is the big problem with privatizing social security (although I'm not saying its a bad idea, just not itelf a solution): The government actually needs the money right now. If they can't take it from there, then they have to sell more debt and that is not necessarily such a good thing.

Ultimately, privatization might be part of the answer but not the only answer. The best solution by far is also the politically most unviable one: To simply make it need based, and not to give it - or to cut it drastically - for people who have no need for it.

But ultimately, the point of social security was never to help people save for retirement but instead to provide another revenue stream for the government. So in the long run if you are going to divorce social security from government revenue then you need to either cut spending or find another revenue stream.

TorontoCFE
09-28-2004, 06:07 PM
Personally, I don't think the government should so anything other than what is beyond the ability of individuals (defence, police, etc.) to do on their own.
Your suggestion may be the best option. I'd love to see the unemployment insurance go into the same pot as your social security for one big savings plan, maybe with restricted withdrawal options.
That would probably give the indididual the biggest bang for their buck.

TorontoCFE
09-28-2004, 06:16 PM
Social Security is based on the premise that individuals can't look after themselves as well as the government can.

I think where you run into problems with everyone doing their own thing is that there wouldn't be a whole lot of incentive to be responsible. Take a chance with your savings and if you hit a good return, you live the good life. Get below average returns and the government will bail you out.

In Canada, until recently employment insurance premiums collected by the federal government had to be invested in provincial bonds, not the highest return but used to give the provinces access to cheap capital.
Since opening that up, returns to that plan are way up. If the government insists they have to be the ones providing for everyone, then they at least have to open up their investments to get a better return.

James Boston
09-28-2004, 06:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with keeping Social Security and putting the money into mutual funds or some other such vehicle is that it begins to look like government manipulation of capital markets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But, don't many proponenets of privatizing SS want it to work more like school vouchers? You can not pay it if you don't want to draw it, allowing people to individually manage this money. This seems to be the better solution. I sure as hell don't want Dick Cheney, or whoever, deciding what companies SS invests in.

adios
09-28-2004, 06:40 PM
I'd rather have the government out of my life. Look what's happened when the government got involved in my retirement. They've screwed it up so I don't see how your argument that government is more responsible than the individual is valid. In other words if something doesn't change with Social Security it will be insovlent and it's due to the crackpot scheme the U.S. government has implemented.

Social Security is a failure

Felix_Nietsche
09-28-2004, 06:44 PM
Lets say the money, which the goverment takes from your paycheck and your employer, was invested conservately in the stock market. Over 40 years you would ONLY earn a PALTRY 8%. Hardly worth it....

The goverment has proven the current social security return of investment has consistently generated a MONSTEROUS, SLASHING, 2% annual return.... I challenge anyone to try to get that kind of rate in an ordinary SAVINGS account!!!

The numbers speak for themselves. To surrender MONSTEROUS 2% for PALTRY 8%. Hardly worth it...:)

Lets keep our current SS system....:)

Abednego
09-28-2004, 06:48 PM
the legislative branch not the executive would make that decision ...... do you know which branch nr cheney is in?

TorontoCFE
09-28-2004, 06:53 PM
Actually, 1 agree with you.
Government assumes they can do a better job then you - in my opinion, I haven't seen any cases of it yet though.
My point was that there is always going to be some people who want to have the government to fall back on and some people who always will pity the less fortunate / capable enough to offer them money.

natedogg
09-28-2004, 09:55 PM
Social Security ADMINISTRATION costs us $2 billion a year.

Cut social security entirely, let everyone keep their extra 15% to do with as they will. For many people social security tax is the difference between socking away savings and living paycheck to paycheck.

If someone ends up destitute and hungry of course we should not let them starve.

Put them on welfare like everyone else who is destitute and hungry. There is no chance in hell that the addition of a few broke geezers will add TWO BILLION per year to the welfare rolls. IN other words, the cost of SS admin ALONE could be used to feed anyone who would otherwise be hungry because of lack of SS.

I just don't understand why we make a distinction between possible welfare recipients who are young vs. old.

We already have welfare dammit. No need for the paternalism of social security on top of that. It is more expensive anyway.

natedog

Jimbo
09-28-2004, 11:04 PM
Jane Bryant Quinn on Social Security (http://www.citact.org/ssa.html)

Jimbo

James Boston
09-29-2004, 08:10 AM
yes