I was critcized for pushing with 97s

[betgo]

Party Poker SNG 3 handed level 6 (blinds 150/300). I have 1900 chips after posting SB. BB has 2300. I open raise allin with 97s. BB calls with KTo. I lose hand.

My opponents comment I had made a nice come back, but pushed too much, and this was a bad push.

Against two overcards, I lose about 200 chips. Against an overpair, I lose 1000. I might get called by an underpair or A6 or less, where I would have positive EV with close to even hands. I probably pick up the blinds for 450, so I think this is EV+.

[joker1976]

if your opponent is tight, you can push with 72o for +EV, if they call you every hand, it's -EV to push with 97s. If they call you with any two cards over ten along with any Ace high and pocket pair, I believe it's slight +_EV for chip count, about even for money. If they call you with any K, it's -EV.

[chill888]

1. Depending on game positions, this push is often a good play
2. Who cares if someone criticizes you?
3. His call was far more questionable than your push.

gl

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
3. His call was far more questionable than your push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Serious question: What's wrong with the call here? Betgo is in an obvious steal position at a point in the tourney where you HAVE to steal some blinds here and there just to stay alive. BB probably guessed (rightly, as it turns out) that Betgo was on a steal and that he had the best hand at the time. It seems to me that BB has a pretty good "hot and cold" hand, which is exactly what Betgo doesn't have. While I have no particular objection to the push, the call seems pretty clear to me.

[betgo]

I think the BB pretty much has to call, certainly if he knows my style, which is I don't need much to push here.

I wouldn't really call my play a steal. If I get called by any reasonable calling hand, I still wind up ahead on average. The blinds are big enough that both players need to play very loose.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. His call was far more questionable than your push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Serious question: What's wrong with the call here? Betgo is in an obvious steal position at a point in the tourney where you HAVE to steal some blinds here and there just to stay alive. BB probably guessed (rightly, as it turns out) that Betgo was on a steal and that he had the best hand at the time. It seems to me that BB has a pretty good "hot and cold" hand, which is exactly what Betgo doesn't have. While I have no particular objection to the push, the call seems pretty clear to me.

[/ QUOTE ]


K 10 is not much. You are calling and risking a fairly healthy stack. the only happy person at the table is the player not involved.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. His call was far more questionable than your push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Serious question: What's wrong with the call here? Betgo is in an obvious steal position at a point in the tourney where you HAVE to steal some blinds here and there just to stay alive. BB probably guessed (rightly, as it turns out) that Betgo was on a steal and that he had the best hand at the time. It seems to me that BB has a pretty good "hot and cold" hand, which is exactly what Betgo doesn't have. While I have no particular objection to the push, the call seems pretty clear to me.

[/ QUOTE ]


K 10 is not much. You are calling and risking a fairly healthy stack. the only happy person at the table is the player not involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so what would be the minimum hand you would need to call a push from the SB when the blinds are large (~1/5 of your stack) and you're down to three players?

[chill888]

[quoteOkay, so what would be the minimum hand you would need to call a push from the SB when the blinds are large (~1/5 of your stack) and you're down to three players?

[/ QUOTE ]

- Depends on stack sizes of opponents
- Depends on opponents playing style

But when all my chips go in the middle, I'd really prefer to be betting and not calling.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. His call was far more questionable than your push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Serious question: What's wrong with the call here? Betgo is in an obvious steal position at a point in the tourney where you HAVE to steal some blinds here and there just to stay alive. BB probably guessed (rightly, as it turns out) that Betgo was on a steal and that he had the best hand at the time. It seems to me that BB has a pretty good "hot and cold" hand, which is exactly what Betgo doesn't have. While I have no particular objection to the push, the call seems pretty clear to me.

[/ QUOTE ]


K 10 is not much. You are calling and risking a fairly healthy stack. the only happy person at the table is the player not involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me?

1) betgo already said he's an aggressive player, so the BB knows there's a good shot that betgo isn't pushing with much.
2) This is three handed. Even the tightest range of hands to put betgo on, top 15%, has hands like A7 in it. But that's probably not the case. See 1).

Just because this is a $10 SnG, it doesn't mean that the "brillian read vs. idiotic calling station" automatically has to go to the "idiotic calling station" every time. Even if the BB puts betgo on the top 40% of hands, (which 97s is not a part of), it's still a correct call, with the dead money making the coinflip balance out.

top 40% (74 hands): all pairs, A, K, Q9-QJ, Q5s-Q8s, J8s-JTs, JTo, T9s

KTo( :1.0)

http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/matchup2.html

[chill888]

[quote

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me?



[/ QUOTE ]

LOL,

No,

It clearly depends on game conditions but...

If you want to call your final 2300 (at least just about) with K10 every time 3 handed you are welcome at my table.

gl

[durron597]

Against the right player (as betgo described himself to be) and with the right sized blinds, I'll be glad to play at your table. And take your money.

This call is very read dependent, and you are giving betgo a lot more credit than his initial post gives himself.

[stupidsucker]

well lets look at it in depth shall we

Chip EV is heavily in favor of the KTo caller.(based on almost any 2 pushing) However I dont think most people will be pushing with these hands. I included all hands except 2J-23 and 3J-34 as possible push hands.

now with 97s pushing into a ?? BB. I based the call on 31.5%(This is a little loose) It includes all the way to Q8o, every ace and every pair.

chip ev for KTo calling under these conditions is +over 2k
chip ev for the 97s pusher is just barely +450 (The equivilant of the blinds)

97s only faces a loss 19.1% of the time, but most of the time just wins the blinds. If 97s loses then he is out.

KTo faces a loss of 40.7%(based on random hands pushign not 97s) but if he loses then he still has chips left, when he wins he gains a guaronteed 2nd place or better.

I am not really sure how to calculate actual $$ ev from chip ev. This is what really matters. ANyone know a formula?

[patrick dicaprio]

one aspect of this is that you are much better off with this hand than pushing with something like A4. many players will be more likely to push with an A since the A might hold up but i much prefer two suited connecting cards of lower rank, since I wont be dominated.

it seems to me this is a situation where both of you made the right play or close to it.

Pat

[LinusKS]

Well, if you take the numbers from the Independent Chip Model, it works out like this:


____________H Folds____V Folds_____H Wins____V Wins
Villian_______33.86______32.11_______23.28_____41. 62
Hero________30.08______31.89_______39.45_____20.00
Big Stack____36.06______35.99_______37.27_____38.38


By calling, the Villain was risking $8.83 to win $9.51.

He needs to win 48% of the time to break even. (In the actual case, he was getting 60%, but of course, he didn't know that.)


The Hero was risking $10.08.

When it's folded, he gets $1.81.

When it's called, and the Hero wins, he gets $9.37.

If he loses, it costs him $10.08.


If, on average, the Villain wins 60% when he calls, the Hero would need the Villain to fold X% to make this a winning play.

If someone could help me figure out what X% is, I'd appreciate it.

[LinusKS]

An interesting thing about it is that the big stack makes money no matter what happens, but he makes the most when the Hero loses.

[LinusKS]

Somebody please check this, but it looks like to me the Hero loses $2.26 every time he's called here, and wins $1.81 when it's folded. (Based on having a 40% chance of winning when it's called.)

If that's right, the Hero needs the Villain to lay down right around 55% of the time for this play to break even.

[stupidsucker]

Can someone post the forumla for ICM or post a link? I looked for this when eastbay posted about it, but couldnt find anything on google.

[LinusKS]

Yes. Here's the link I've been using.

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

[donny5k]

And chill888 is definitely the kind of player betgo wants to play against because he only calls 15% of the time.

[LinusKS]

It looks like to me that betgo loses around $.71 on average when his opponent will call this bet with any two cards.

He losses around $.90 if his opponent will call with the top 67% of all hands.

If the other guy was very tight, this would be a winning play. For example, if the Villain called with only the top 5%, it would win an average of $1.50/hand.


The Villain's play is clearly correct, though if he thinks betgo will make this play with any two. If he thinks betgo will make this play with only the top 40% of hands, he still makes money here.

I think the Villain was probably right here, and betgo was wrong, especially if he'd already developed a loose-aggressive table image.