Blowing my wad too early?

[sfer]

Party 10+1. It's the second hand at 25/50 blinds. The table is, uncharacteristically for Party, tight. The prior hand, I was in the SB and pushed to a button min-open-raise and took the pot uncontested. It was the first hand I had played voluntarily. At the time I felt like I had to start moving but now I'm not so sure. Thoughts?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed)

UTG (t1430)
UTG+1 (t1265)
MP1 (t485)
MP2 (t830)
MP3 (t860)
CO (t940)
Hero (t755)
SB (t575)
BB (t860)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises to t150</font>, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t755 (All-In)</font>

[SmileyEH]

BAD BAD BAD

If this blinds were 50-100 this would be automatic.

But with 15 BB's in your hand you do not want to play for your stack PF. Raise to 2.5-3xBB and go from there. This allows you to fold to a reraise all in, especially from the BB.

edit: didn't notice the PF raise, my bad...fold PF

-SmileyEH

[Jason Strasser]

This is close. I dont really know how the 10+1s play, but my best guess is that this situation is too marginal EV wise to get involved when you could likely have larger edges presented to you later. A hand like AQ or AK certainly has a significant more amount of equity, because hands like JJ and KQ, which are fairly common open raising hands that might ponder a call in this spot, are in much worse shape against AQ than AJ.

I'd say toss the hand. I don't see the need to get involved. Plus the open raiser did raise from MP, not the button. I'd say if you were in the SB with AJ and the button raised to 150, you would have a much more appealing play. Against a typical 10+1 partier I still dont think you will catch your opponent willing to call off his chips with a hand you dominate frequently enough.

-Jason

[stripsqueez]

AJo is crap after someone raised - just an auto fold if you have any respect for the raiser - i would probably fold if the blinds were 100/200 too

you have loads of time to find a better spot to invest chips

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[ChrisV]

This is just awful. It's awful at 50/100 as well.

Basically your only hope is that he folds, because if he calls you are going to be coinflipping at best or, more likely, dominated. There really isn't a lot of difference between moving in with this and, say, 67s. Sure, with 67s you are in more trouble vs pairs, but you're a fair bit better off vs AK and AQ.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
This is close. I dont really know how the 10+1s play, but my best guess is that this situation is too marginal EV wise to

[/ QUOTE ]


This is not close. Raising all-in a 150 bet with only AJo? When your stack is not in any trouble?Horrible and just asking to go broke.

AJo looks far prettier than it is. One of the most overrated hands in NL Hold'em.

gl

[NotMitch]

If the table is tight I would rather be the one doing the opening most of the time. But even at $10+1 AJ feels pretty bad facing a raise. I would fold.

[Solitare]

Some numbers might help seeing why AJo is bad here.

http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/hand-rankings.html

This chart is meant for head's up, but it is usefull here. What hands is MP3 likely to raise with? Column 3 is a good start -- any pair, any A above A6o, suited face cards. Against this set of hands, AJo only has a 0.51 equity. Now some adjustments.

- The raise is probably tigheter than the column 3 list, so your equity is likely less.
- The blinds are still to act. There's a chance they have a hand to play against a raise and re-raise (probably only AA or KK). Another hit on your equity.
- A re-raise all-in probably has some fold equity, but I'd guess its pretty small. My guess is that MP3, by making this raise, is prepared to call any re-raise all-in.

Based on the chart and some adjustment, I'd say your equity with AJo is less than 50%. Not a play I'd want to make with your stack not in jeopardy to the blinds.

[sfer]

It was folded back to MP3 and he called with TT. As soon as he called it became clear that this was about the best shape I could be when called.

As for what happened, the flop was ATx and the turn was another T for the quadzilla. Thanks everyone.

[durron597]

Consider yourself lucky you ran into a hand that you were a coinflip against.

[sfer]

Yeah, that was exactly my thought after.