BIG STACK vs SMALL STACK(s)?

[sparK]

The big stack has 160,000 chips. The small stack is desperate and pushes, another short stack just calls putting himself all in. You, the chip leaded hold 8/8. It would only cost you 50,000 and you already have 6,000 out there from calling on the button, it will cost you 44,000 to take out two people with a solid hand.

Do you call?

This people that are observing do not agree with me that it's a mandatory call. You already had money in there and it's only 40,000 to take out TWO players and you have one of the top ten starting hands. Why NOT call here?

Needless to say the two short stacks flip over A6 and A8 which i think it is fairly easy to put them on a smaller pair or Ax. I think it is an easy call. What is your guys thoughts?

Edit: Blinds are 3,000 / 6,000.

[Malcom Reynolds]

And you are putting 1/3 of your chips up for a situation where HEADS UP you are either a slight favourite or a big underdog. Either you're in a race situation or behind to larger pocket pair. But this is three way. So there are far more possibilities that can beat you with a weak hand.

If this was t10,000-t30,000 heads up I'd consider it, but 1/3 your chips with a weak hand in a 3-multiway pot is bad news. There's no reason to gamble here when you are the chip leader.

[Nottom]

I think it depends on how shortstacked the first guy is. If they each have 50K then I fold since that indicates stronger hands. I want to be in a spot where if I beat the bigger stack I either want to lose only a few chips or make a bit of profit on the hand.

88 is fine against one stack moving in, but you will frequently be up against 3/4 overcards with two and 50K is a pretty big chunk or your stack to lose here.

[sparK]

While getting a discount to take out two DESPERATE (yes, DESPERATE) short stacks I most certainly would.

[sparK]

Not really if you have 160,000 it would put you at like 116,000 and everyone else around the same.

[AwesomeAli]

It depends......

How many players are left?
Am I on the bubble?
how many prizes are there?
If I fold my 88 will I be guaranteed a payout if the A8 beats the A6?

Ali

[sparK]

No, it's only one seat. It's a satelitte for one seat into a tournament. It'd put you even with the guy next to you in chips but could take out two players for a discount (two short stack-desperates). It's not a survive and get payed more situation it's a winner take all and he had the chips and yes he was on the bubble.

[Malcom Reynolds]

Exactly. Why give up your strong lead on a gamble? You will do better if you put your money in when you have a big edge on your opponents. They may be desperate, but between the two of them they will probably have aroudn two or three overcards between them to your pair.

The average case I'd guess is something like:

pokenum -h 8c 8d - ad 4c - kh jd
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 8d 529198 38.61 836783 61.05 4773 0.35 0.387
4c Ad 354907 25.89 1011074 73.76 4773 0.35 0.260
Jd Kh 481876 35.15 884105 64.50 4773 0.35 0.353

At best you can hope for:

pokenum -h 8c 8d - ad 4c - jh 2d
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 8d 692895 50.55 672704 49.08 5155 0.38 0.507
4c Ad 371904 27.13 993695 72.49 5155 0.38 0.273
2d Jh 300800 21.94 1064799 77.68 5155 0.38 0.221

Worst case is something like:
pokenum -h 8c 8d - 9c 9h - qd 6h
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8c 8d 230996 16.85 1134199 82.74 5559 0.41 0.170
9c 9h 800304 58.38 564891 41.21 5559 0.41 0.585
Qd 6h 333895 24.36 1031300 75.24 5559 0.41 0.245

Let's say you will see the typical situation 60% of the time, the best case 20% and the worst case 20% of the time.

.6 * .3861 + .2 * .5 + .2 * .1685 = .365

So you expect to win about 36.5% of the time, you are a 2 to 1 underdog.

Anyway. That's all hand wavy because the 60/20/20 are made up numbers, but it's pretty clear you are going to be an underdog. Since you aren't even breaking even on this call, why do it?

Why not let the short stacks knock the other out, and you can take on the short stack when you have a larger edge over him?

[sparK]

Why not have a dominating edge over every player and have 2 to 1 in chips over the guy 2nd in chips?

[Malcom Reynolds]

If it's a satellite with only three people left and only one seat is in the money, then it's not even close. I'd fold and let them take each other out, and you are in good position to play heads up with the large stack.

If you make this call and lose, then you have just tripled up the guy you have to play headsup with rather than just doubling him up when he knocks the other guy out.

And since you will lose most of the time on this call, you shouldn't make it.

[AwesomeAli]

In which case I wouldn't call - it's an easy pass IMO.

You are taking on two stacks (albeit short stacks) with a middle pair.

If you want to win the seat, surely you want to get the shorter stacks heads up??

I know the tournament you are refering to as I was observing, and the pass with the 88 was a good one IMHO

Ali

[MLG]

because you cannot know that you dominate them both. the hands that they flipped over in this instance were ideal for you, but this is very rare. Usually you will be in much much much worse shape. Even worse, you said this is a winner take all sat, so there is no real money bonus for knocking these players out. You can find a better spot. You feel like it would have been right to call based on what they had, but you cant factor that into your decision making process. Rather you need to factor in the range of hands that they might have.

Also, I am unclear as to whether or not these are the only other players left. Are there only 3 players left, or after knocking these players out are there still others?

[Malcom Reynolds]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not have a dominating edge over every player and have 2 to 1 in chips over the guy 2nd in chips?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd love to have that. But you are unlikely to win this encounter.

So you roughly have 160k, and two stacks with 50k. 33% of the time you will win everything. 66% of the time you will lose, and you will have 110k chips vs. your opponent with 150k chips.

If you fold and let the two knock each other out, now you have 160k chips vs. your opponent with 100k chips.

Isn't this way better?

[sparK]

Okay even though you guys don't think it would be an easy call or a calling situation would it neccessarily be a BAD call?

[Malcom Reynolds]

I think it's a bad call. In my post above I show that most of the time you will have to play heads up with 110k chips vs. your opponent's 150k chips.

The only time I'd call is if I was a truly terrible heads up player and expected to lose most of the time even with a 50k chip advantage. Then I'd have to call and hope to win right there.

[fnurt]

I don't think this is a bad call at all. The only way you are a dog is if a bigger pair is involved, and there's no reason to expect that from either player. Even in a scenario like 88 vs AQ vs KJ you have a coin flip (33% chance to triple). And if either player has a card under 8 you have an edge. In the happy situation where one of them has a pair lower than 88 you have a big edge.

This is a winner-take-all format, so eliminating players has no intrinsic value. But you don't get a prize just for having a big stack either. Sometimes a big stack is an advantage because it allows you to bully, but by the sound of it, with people pushing wildly like this your edge is diminished.

The fact that you might end the hand a little higher than someone else or a little lower than someone else is just irrelevant. There is no chance that the tournament will be rained out and you will be awarded a prize based upon your current chip position. In a winner-take-all format, you simply want to make decisions based upon pot odds.

The only legitimate reason to fold this hand is because you think the chance of an opponent holding a bigger pair than 88 is higher than I think it is. Otherwise, you have an edge and should take it.

[sparK]

Not to mention it wouldn't be heads up right after like he says, there was stuill 7 people left.

[Malcom Reynolds]

What? I thought there were only three people left.

Forget everything I said then. That changes everything.

[sparK]

No I never said that..I said that two people were all in should you call..there were still 7 people left, 5 if you took them both out with calling.

[MLG]

given that there are actually 7 people left, there are some important issues that you have left out here. What's the position of both raisers, also what were the relative stack sizes of the two players. In my opinion the size of the side-pot created is of extreme importance.

[sparK]

There would be no sidepot..they were dead even in chips.

[fnord_too]

I call here. I like these situations when I am a big stack. This is a +EV play, but you are likely not going to win the hand (I'd swag your win rate at 35-40%). That is a situation I don't mind at all if losing the hand leaves me healthy.

Bottom line, you can take this shot with relative impunity, and if you win the upside is pretty big.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway. That's all hand wavy because the 60/20/20 are made up numbers, but it's pretty clear you are going to be an underdog. Since you aren't even breaking even on this call, why do it?

[/ QUOTE ]
It is very important that the payoff from winning is not 1:1. Your calculations say you win more than 1/3, 36.5%. Therefore, you don't expect to be an underdog. You expect to be a favorite, winning more than your fair share of the pot, and that you get a discount makes calling even clearer.

AA wins less than half of the time against 5 random hands. If 5 people push (blindly or not) in front of you, it is an easy call if you have AA.

The original post was inconsistent. Let's assume that you have to call exactly 40k more after your 6k limp. You risk 40k to gain 98k, so you are getting 2.45:1 odds. In return for your 40k investment, you expect to get 50,370 back, so folding would cost 10.37k, more than the blinds for an orbit.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to mention it wouldn't be heads up right after like he says, there was stuill 7 people left.

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep mentioning the number of people left. That is not nearly as important as a number of other things you left out, such as what they're likely range of hands are, how big their stacks are, what the pot odds are, etc.

And knocking people out is pretty unimportant as compared to getting chips and should not be part of your thinking here.