PDA

View Full Version : Pot / Implied odds when short stacked?


BacMan
09-27-2004, 05:38 PM
It's early in a 40 player live multi-table tournament. We are just past the rebuy period and my tables has 7 or 8 players. Blinds are 200 and 400 and I have approximately 5k in chips.

The player on the button is a total newbie, having claimed three weeks ago that this was his first time playing hold'em. He is horrible. He says raise when he bets and calls calls calls. He usually only bets with a strong hand when someone checks.

I am 1 off the button and it's folded to me. I have QTs and decide to raise to 800. The weak player on the button who has me covered (getting lucky) with perhaps 10K calls and both blinds fold.

$2200 in the pot.

Flop comes Q 9 8 rainbow giving me top pair with a gut-shot.

I fire out another $800. He says to me, "do you have pocket aces", and then calls. Pot is now 3800. I have about 3400 chips remaining.

Turn is a blank, I check suspecting he has me beat and he bets $1000 fairly quickly. I take some time to think about the hand, calculate pot odds and recall his comment about me having pocket AA. I have this feeling that he has KK. It's consistent with his play and his comment about me having AA.

My problem now is that if he has KK, I have 9 outs. 2 queens for a set, 3 tens for two pair and 4 jacks for a straight. If all 9 outs are live (giving he has KK), (the pot is now 4800 with his bet), I am getting 4.9 to 1 if I call. Is that right? Implied odds should make this call correct mathematically, yes or no? I'm 99% sure he will pay off if I make the best hand.

I think for a long time and come to the conclusion that I have a little less than enough chips to play if I fold and it is possible that my 9 outs aren't all good if I am mistaken and then finally fold. He's about to throw his cards in and turns over KK.

Is this a clear call. If I call and miss the river and have to fold to say an all-in bet, I am left with $2400 in chips. How many of you call and how many of you fold?

BacMan