Is this close?

[ilya]

4-handed, blinds at 250/500
I'm in the BB, and have 1800 left after posting. UTG goes all-in for 1300. Button, the short stack with 925, folds. SB, the big stack, also folds.
The pot is laying me about 2.5:1. I have QTs, which is a 1.5:1 dog against likely push hands according to eastbay's calculations. However, if I call and lose I will be in bad shape; also, the small stack will have less than 1xbb after posting the BB next hand.
Is this at all close?

[Grisgra]

What's an eastbay?

[parappa]

No, this is an easy fold imo. The difference here is the size of your stack. 3.5xbb is a bit deceptive here, because you've already paid your blind, and because you're the 2d stack, and your chip position is more important here. It's kind of like a flush draw that the pot is laying you odds to chase but which costs too much of your stack, only it's a much clearer situation here.

[HC5831]

Don't listen to anyone who says they fold here. They are playing what I call a "not to lose" strategy. You may get ITM more playing weak (ie folding here), but your ROI will be lower, which is the bottom line. I'm constantly amazed at the amount of bad advice given on this forum.

Blinds:
200/500
Stacks:
Big Stack: 5475 (SB)
Hero: 2300 (BB)
UTG: 1300
Short Stack: 925 (Button)

Above are the aproximate stack sizes. You decision is to call 800 into a 2050 pot, giving you about 2.5:1 to call, just like you stated. UTG is desperate to win a pot. He might even had noticed that you've been folding the blinds a lot and thinks the odds that you'll call here in the BB remote. He is likely to push with a lot of hands, possibly any hand.

You are most likely at 50/50 here. Worst case likely 60/40 (vs AKo). Note: I still call here if I know for a fact that he has AKo. You have more than enough odds here to call. If you fold, you greatly lower your chance at 1st, which should be your goal. If you lose you still have 1k w/another ST who is on the BB in 2 hands. There is no guarentee that the ST will go out before the blinds reach you again. He may even play a not to lose strategy, which will force you to fold again next round.

Don't play not to lose. Play to win. Easy call.

HC

[parappa]

I think I agree with most of what you're saying, and especially with the idea of playing aggressively here, but I don't think that you get that much out of it.

Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

OTOH, even if the SB gets folded, you still have 1600 chips w/zero chance of busting out, and I frankly don't see your odds of overhauling the big stack being much different at 1600 than they are at 1800, though you are absolutely right that your best chance is to end up at 3850.

Can someone please work the ICM on this?

[edit: before flaming please read retraction below] /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.

[parappa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh. I mean that I'm an idiot. HC must absolutely be right here. This is an autocall. I apologize for the previous post.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove gives 42% vs the very generous set of hands AA-22, AX, and any 2 broadway. This is a bit better than 2.5:1, but I wouldn't say that 2.5:1 on a 2.4:1 chance is blinding value. I can get it close to 50% by including KX and QX, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh. I mean that I'm an idiot. HC must absolutely be right here. This is an autocall. I apologize for the previous post.

[/ QUOTE ]

No worries...your original post makes so much more sense, too, if you're talking about a 2.4:1 odds situation. Yeah, in that case I agree that folding is best.

[DCIAce]

I think it's pretty close.

It's not an "auto-call", though. Why do you think of AK as a worst case scenario, HC? QQ is the Worst case scenario, and if you're against AA, KK, or QQ.. you're nearly dead.. JJ, TT, AQ, and AT are unfavorable too.

I think I call here if UTG has been stealing a lot, and fold if not.. I don't think it affects your $EV too much either way, though.. very close one.

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you mean? 40% translates to 1.5:1 odds, not 2.4:1.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Doh. I mean that I'm an idiot. HC must absolutely be right here. This is an autocall. I apologize for the previous post.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, it's cool bro. I'm glad I didn't offend you with my strongly posted post. I just wanted to make it clear that this situation is a clear call. It pisses me off when I see fold posts to this situation. As the odds close to 2.5:1, folding gains equity.

HC

[HC5831]

You might want to pay closer attention to posts that you reply to. I said that the most likely worst case senario is AKo. Any time you play a hand you can be up against AA, KK, QQ etc. That's poker. However, the odds of that are small vs the range of hands he is likely to have here.

He could push were with many hands to include small-medium connectors (which you dominate here). He may even push with any 2 if he thinks you'll fold. He is desperate and needs a pot, especially if he is aggressive.

I simplified the situation by saying the odds of AA-QQ, AQ, KQ, QJ, and any other dominating hand were about the same as 56s-TJs, and any 2. Possible hands obviously are influenced by the type of player. Since I didn't have any info, I posted vs the average player.

One could argue possible calling hands all they'd like. But I feel that my simplification is very acurate for this situation. I pulled AKo out of the air with some simple calcuation. Is this the "most likely worst case senario"? Probably not, but it's close enough for a quick calcuation and to see that this is an auto call everytime.

Note: I also picked AKo to illustrate that you are only a 40/60 dog here with 2.5:1 odds. Which is still a call situation.

I like to follow KISS. Keep It Simple Stupid. Many times people over complicate things when some simple generalizations will do. KISS is very important online, where you only have a limited amount of time to act.

HC

[SmileyEH]

I would rather shoot myself in the face than fold.

-SmileyEH

[tallstack]

I did an ICM calc for this and came up with the following $equities (I assumed there were 10000 chips in play, but got similar results with 8000 chips in play):

Fold - .233
Call and Lose - .162
Call and Win - .362

Win percentage required to break even with the fold if you call the all-in - 35% or about 1:1.8.

Dave S

[Eder]

I'd rather fold it here then push with any 2 on the button...calling feels so...dirty ...jmo

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I did an ICM calc for this and came up with the following $equities (I assumed there were 10000 chips in play, but got similar results with 8000 chips in play):

Fold - .233
Call and Lose - .162
Call and Win - .362

Win percentage required to break even with the fold if you call the all-in - 35% or about 1:1.8.

Dave S

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmm...so it looks like it is fairly close after all...although probably a call.

[DCIAce]

Let's say the guy got to 3500 chips with AA and KK in the first two levels, and hasn't played a single hand since, do you still call? Obviously, that's over the top, but there's a point of UTG tightness that it turns into a fold.

Calling is probably +Chip EV and marginally + $EV in most situations, but folding in these spots makes for much less variance.

Anyways, calling is better in most situations, but it's really not a big mistake to fold. I still think it's pretty close. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say the guy got to 3500 chips with AA and KK in the first two levels, and hasn't played a single hand since, do you still call? Obviously, that's over the top, but there's a point of UTG tightness that it turns into a fold.

Calling is probably +Chip EV and marginally + $EV in most situations, but folding in these spots makes for much less variance.

Anyways, calling is better in most situations, but it's really not a big mistake to fold. I still think it's pretty close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now you're twisting the situation to fit your argument by using an extreme. You can do this with almost any argument, which BTW doesn't make it valid. There are very few absolute statements. My girl friend does this all the time to try to make herself right, and it drives me crazy.

I don't know what ICM is. I don't care what the ICM calculator says, even if it says I'm right. If you ask the best players on this board, the majority will tell you to call everytime (which I realise, doesn't make it the right move). Baring some extreme, which should not have to be said. ie played 1 hand, opponent accidently exposed his hand and you saw you were dominated. You are physic (wish I could spell) and know you'll lose. God told you he had AA. Your friend on the wireless earpiece behind your oponent told you that your oponent had you dominated. etc, etc.

ICM might give you some numbers based on the math. But unless it factors in the gap concept, peoples fear to bust on the bubble, and not to lose play, I don't give it a whole lot of weight. The same holds true for a lot of calcualtions. Poker is a game of math and physcoligy (spell?). Pure math alone might make you a wining player, but it won't maximize your profit.

HC

[rachelwxm]

what ICM does not account for is that if you go all in and lose, you only have one bb left and you lose stealing capability which is very important at this stage.
So it's close but I would fold here.