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AceKQJT

09-27-2004, 04:13 PM

This is a MTT Satellite. A low buy-in event I entered to pass a few hours. I was reading posts here (wading through the ever-growing muck of off-topic.....never mind) while I was playing, so I'm not sure if this was the 6th or 7th hand of the tourney.

So when the guy on my right raises pre-flop, I think a call is the corrcet play here. When the guy behind me moves in, I select "fold" in the pre-act box....but the action that ensued changed my mind and I thought "quadruple up or go mow the yard".

I don't intend to post the results of this hand unless ya'll really want to know.

I am mainly concerned with hearing some discussion on the choice I made pre-flop. I may run the hands through twodimes.net to see if I actually had proper odds, but that is really irrelevant, isn't it?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 (t895)
MP2 (t2240)
MP3 (t590)
CO (t700)
Button (t965)
SB (t1000)
BB (t905)
UTG (t1030)
UTG+1 (t715)
AceKQJT (t960)

Preflop: AceKQJT is UTG+2 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 raises to t55, AceKQJT calls t55, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t700, MP3 calls t590 (All-In), CO calls t700 (All-In), 3 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to t715 (All-In), AceKQJT raises to t960 (All-In), MP2 calls t260.

Final Pot: t3965
Main Pot: t2990 (t2990), between MP2, MP3, CO, UTG+1 and AceKQJT.
Pot 2: t440 (t440), between MP2, CO, UTG+1 and AceKQJT.
Pot 3: t45 (t45), between MP2, UTG+1 and AceKQJT.
Pot 4: t490 (t490), between MP2 and AceKQJT.

--Casey

SossMan

09-27-2004, 04:24 PM

Short of 3 pocket pairs < Q, I can't imagine you having the odds to call that there.
That's a very fishy call, IMO. I mean, if you want to donate money and go mow the lawn, I'll send you my address. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

JasonK

09-27-2004, 04:25 PM

Odds are it didn't take long before you were out mowing the lawn.

Malcom Reynolds

09-27-2004, 04:26 PM

I think this is an easy fold. AQo is really weak in a multiway situation. With four people all-in you have to feel like someone could have AA, KK, QQ, AK or several pocket pairs. Even if you have a slight edge with respect to the odds, I have to feel like you're betting off putting your money in when you have a greater edge. FOUR other people have shown strength here.

No, no, I'd get out. This early in the tournament, I'd be tempted to fold AQo to an UTG raise if I'm UTG+1, I don't know if I'm going to get re-raised behind me, and I may have to play out of position to the people behind me and even if it's heads up, worry if TPTK is any good vs an UTG raiser.

This early I'd only consider AQo in late position, especially in an unraised pot.

Superfluous Man

09-27-2004, 04:28 PM

I'd say probably not. Against a raise which gets 3 callers, you're probably up against at least one hand that dominates or buries you, and then with all those people calling, you have to imagine they have some kind of paint. That would take up many of your outs.

If you run this through twodimes and it turns out you had an EV over .2, I'll be rather shocked.

AceKQJT

09-27-2004, 05:49 PM

I'm not going to try to defend my action...I know it was fishy. I felt like it was an opportunity to quad-up, and I was probably getting close to those odds anyway. I certainly didn't put any of those people necessarily on A-A or K-K. I thought they could be making those calls with much worse than my holding ( KJ, QJ, or any number of un-imaginable combinations).

Top 7 of 150 got a seat. This was pretty close to an all-or-nothing tournament. (I don't play satellites, so maybe I made my mistake in this line of thinking). In a cash tourney, I would never have made this call. The Satellite aspect pushed me from a fold to a call (esp. after all the discussion on Raymer's 89o call vs. Annie Duke).

I did run the hand through twodimes. I have attached the results...They do not prove or dis-prove anything, and I am still not convinced that what I did was the wrong thing under the circumstances (ie., small investment of money and time at this point with an estimated EV very close to 0).

If I am completely missing something here, then please don't let this post die.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=531595
pokenum -h ad qc - as qs - kd qd - ac th - kh td
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Ad 4281 0.50 416750 48.99 429637 50.51 0.247
As Qs 85852 10.09 335179 39.40 429637 50.51 0.343
Kd Qd 165771 19.49 672988 79.11 11909 1.40 0.200
Ac Th 108661 12.77 679508 79.88 62499 7.35 0.154
Td Kh 35647 4.19 789483 92.81 25538 3.00 0.055

SossMan

09-27-2004, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=531595
pokenum -h ad qc - as qs - kd qd - ac th - kh td
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Ad 4281 0.50 416750 48.99 429637 50.51 0.247
As Qs 85852 10.09 335179 39.40 429637 50.51 0.343
Kd Qd 165771 19.49 672988 79.11 11909 1.40 0.200
Ac Th 108661 12.77 679508 79.88 62499 7.35 0.154
Td Kh 35647 4.19 789483 92.81 25538 3.00 0.055

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought you were 4 handed...did you get dealt AQ twice? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

betgo

09-27-2004, 07:55 PM

Maybe you got lucky and were up against 3 other fish without allin hands. However, with 3 people allin for 50xBB, it is likely someone has AA, KK, QQ, or AK. If you check on twodimes, AQ doesn't play very well against any of those hands. You were very lucky if you got 3-1 odds.

With a lot shallower money, AQ can sometimes be a good hand to go allin with. However, it is less likley to be a good hand to call allin with.

AceKQJT

09-27-2004, 10:09 PM

I was against 4 opponents. The thing is, although I knew A-A, K-K, and Q-Q were within the range of hands these guys could have, I didn't think ANY of them *needed* those three hands to make this play. As a matter of fact, I (correctly) figured that the re-raiser had a weak Ace(which eneded up being A-Qs). The range of calling hands after the re-raise to t-700 grew larger with each call, as the pot-odds got bigger and bigger.

So the simple fact is that pre-flop, I was barely getting the odds to make the call (based on the four hands that I was up against). I shared the pot with A-Qs about 50% of the time. The problem with my call was the fact that 20 - 30% of the time, AA-QQ will be out there. When you account for those times, then I am certainly not getting the odds to call ever in that situation.

I thought this would be a pretty interesting hand to discuss here, as I wanted to hear some objective views on the entire situation. Oh well, I guess I'll try again some other timke.

--Casey

adanthar

09-27-2004, 11:21 PM

Haha. I really want to know which of them won it, considering that three A's, three Q's, 2 K's and 2 T's were all out. Did somebody hit a flush or straight or did a T come up? :P

Other than that...hmm. If you have AK, given this format this is a clear call, which I really wouldn't have thought before your post. Thanks.

AceKQJT

09-28-2004, 08:15 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 (t895)
MP2 (t2240)
MP3 (t590)
CO (t700)
Button (t965)
SB (t1000)
BB (t905)
UTG (t1030)
UTG+1 (t715)
AceKQJT (t960)

Preflop: AceKQJT is UTG+2 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 raises to t55, AceKQJT calls t55, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t700, MP3 calls t590 (All-In), CO calls t700 (All-In), 3 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to t715 (All-In), AceKQJT raises to t960 (All-In), MP2 calls t260.

Flop: (t3965) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players, 4 all-in)

Turn: (t3965) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players, 4 all-in)

River: (t3965) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players, 4 all-in)

Final Pot: t3965
Main Pot: t2990 (t2990), between MP2, MP3, CO, UTG+1 and AceKQJT. > Pot won by MP3 (t2990).
Pot 2: t440 (t440), between MP2, CO, UTG+1 and AceKQJT. > Pot won by UTG+1 (t440).
Pot 3: t45 (t45), between MP2, UTG+1 and AceKQJT. > Pot won by UTG+1 (t45).
Pot 4: t490 (t490), between MP2 and AceKQJT. > Split: MP2 (t245), AceKQJT (t245).

Results: 
UTG+1 has Kh Td (three of a kind, kings).
AceKQJT has Ad Qc (two pair, kings and queens).
MP2 has As Qs (two pair, kings and queens).
MP3 has Kd Qd (full house, kings full of queens).
CO has Ac Th (one pair, kings).
Outcome: MP3 wins t2990. UTG+1 wins t485. MP2 wins t245. AceKQJT wins t245.

SossMan

09-28-2004, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I felt like it was an opportunity to quad-up,

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I was against 4 opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 opponent = double up
2 opponents = triple up
3 opponents = quad up
4 opponents = quintuple up

semantics, i know.... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

As for the hand...you happen to be up against a very good distribution of hands for you and still were very marginally +EV. Throw in just one AK or god forbid QQ/KK/AA or even worse, QQ and AK and rerun those numbers. You got lucky that you weren't dominated.

[ QUOTE ]
The range of calling hands after the re-raise to t-700 grew larger with each call, as the pot-odds got bigger and bigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The range of hands narrows (for typical opponents) when there are multiple overcalls. This may or may not be the case in a small buy in tourney like this, but until proven otherwise, I assume my opponents think.

Che

09-28-2004, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this would be a pretty interesting hand to discuss here, as I wanted to hear some objective views on the entire situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Casey, some things are written in stone around here. For example, you don’t call all-in with AQ. Heaven forbid you call with junk like J7. /images/graemlins/blush.gif Pot odds? What’s that?

Seriously, I agree that it is an interesting hand so here is my "objective" view:

Against the range of hands you would expect from opponents in a low buyin event, your all-in call is -EV but not by much. I ran several combinations of hands through twodimes to aid the estimating process and the call is probably -EV by less than I initially thought.

As I'm sure you're aware, the call would be hugely -EV if we assumed that your opponents were good players, but you obviously didn't think they were good players.

As to whether or not I would make the call in this exact situation the answer is yes despite my analysis that it is a -EV call. Here's why:

1. Estimated average time per tourney is 1.5 hours. Mine is more, but let’s be conservative.
2. To keep it simple, I assume that you have 900 chips if you fold, 0 if you call and lose (it’s all or nothing – no sidepots), and 4000 if you win. You win 18% of the time.
3. I assume it is a $10 buyin with 1000 starting chips which makes each 1000 chips worth around $15 given your edge.

$EV of 900 chips = 900/1000*$15=$13.50
$EV of 0 chips = $0.00 /images/graemlins/grin.gif
$EV of 4000 chips = 4000/1000*$15=$60.00 but we’ll call it $58 due to extra chips being worth less yada yada yada

So, your total $EV (call) is .18($58)+.85($0)=$10.44

Time cost of folding = 90 minutes – 5 minutes (time already played) = 85 minutes
Time cost of calling and losing = 0 minutes

I estimate the time cost of calling and winning as 3 hours (starting when the call is made) since you are much more likely to go far with 4400 chips early than with 1000 chips to start.

So, total time cost (call) = .18 (180) + .82 (0)= 32.4 minutes

85 minutes – 32.4 minutes = 52.6 minutes saved

So your call costs you $3.06 in EV but it saves you 52.6 minutes of playing time. How much is your time worth?

The point I’m trying to make here is that $EV is not really the bottom line. $EV per hour is if you are trying to maximize your profitability. (Note: You may need to balance $EV/hour with bankroll considerations, and it is therefore possible that $EV/hour maximization is not possible without excessive risk of ruin, but I assume here that you have the bankroll to play much higher.)

In fact, having considered the maximum $/hour that one can realistically expect to make in a low buyin supersat, I no longer play supers to events with buyins under $500 during business hours*, and I would only play a super to a small or medium buyin (<$2000) event as a second table until close to the end when my $EV had increased quite a bit. I’m better off playing cash games or a normal tourney and just using my earnings to pay the $215 than I am playing a supersat, and this would be the case even if I won a seat almost 100% of the time.

Later,
Che

*Business hours? IMHO there is nothing wrong with playing events that do not maximize $/hour as long as one is aware that that is the case. However, since I depend on poker income to meet part of my monthly budget, I have to spend most of my time on the events that are the most profitable for me. To keep the game fun, though, I still occasionally play events that I know are not $/hr maximizing events just because I feel like it during my “hobby hours.” So please don't think I'm saying that playing sats/supersats is *wrong* because that's not what I mean...

AceKQJT

09-28-2004, 07:48 PM

Thanks Che,

A great analysis.

Poker isn't my only source of income, but I do play quite a few hands a week. I play 5 to 7 MTT per month, because if I play more I tend to get stressed and play more & more poorly. I do well, in general, in my MTT's, so I wasn't really questioning how lucrative my play was in this hand. I *knew* I should fold. I called because calling would be more FUN. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I couldn't believe what I saw when all the cards were face up pre-flop! Not even a PP of 5's! No AK. I was kind of suprised that I didn't see J7s or something like that. As the flop, turn, and river were being dealt, I was thinking "My God! I'm looking at 10 paints pre-flop, that's half of them!".

After the hand was over, I thought it would be a thought provoking topic here. I had only recently read several posts supporting *CALLing* all-in with 8-9o, and wondered if I would get the same support as our reigning Monarch. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Well anyway, I didn't lose any sleep over the hand. I had more fun playing it the way I did, and I even enjoyed being called fishy.

See ya'll at the tables,

--Casey

betgo

09-28-2004, 11:42 PM

Let me explain again the problem with this call. In this case, you have one of the better of the five allin hands, so you think it was a good play. With five players allin, you are unlikely to have much better than 4-1 odds. But even with all those fish, there could be a baracuda hidden in that pot.

What if one of those players had AA. The only way you win is with trip queens, KJT, or 4 cards of the suit of your ace: in other words, you would be practically drawing dead. Even in a low buyin satellite, the probability that one those allin players has AA is more than you think. That is the general problem with going or calling allin early in the tournament without AA or KK. A lot of times you may get a coin flip, but other times you will be practically beaten.

I have gone allin many times against one player early in low buyin tournaments or SNGs with AK or QQ. When you wind up with a 3-1 advantage against KQ it looks like a really good move. But you feel pretty silly when the other player turns over AA or KK.

In a reasonble tournament, the players who call when others are allin can be expected to have prgressively stronger hands. The initial allin is likely to be a big pair or atleast AQ or TT, but he could be making a move with anything. You need a stronger hand to call than to raise, since you know you will not pick up the pot without a fight. Since the player going allin is likely to have a very strong hand, you need a premium hand to call. Against decent players, you assume that the person calling the allin, if not the initial allin has AA, KK, QQ, or AK. The third allin would have to be AA or KK.

Granted you were up against fish who see a bunch of players allin as a great chance to gamble and win a seat right there. Rather than joining them in gambling, wait for a similar situation when you can join the party with a big pair or a set or straight after the flop, and clean up against these loose players.

vandalay

09-29-2004, 01:00 AM

Ok... just pure odds, I think it was an acceptable call assuming you wanted to WIN or go mow the yard.

You might be ahead already, and if your not, then your Q gives you the 25% chance to win the hand over AK, 99 and say 66.

I bet MP2 had a low pair, MP3 a higher pair or Ax, UTG+1 had mid-high pair or AK.

With that, your getting 4 to 1 on your money, and the MP2 is probably stealing with his big stack on a low pair... meaning you are probably only playing against 2 others (one guy has a higher pair, so your race is still good).

If the AK is there also, you still have 25% chance of winning... without AK you have 40%... just my guessing.

-VI

betgo

09-29-2004, 01:17 AM

I ran twodimes for four hands that might be allin, one of which is AA. AQ would have a 5.6% cahnce of winning.

Ad Ah 688130 63.36 385307 35.48 12571 1.16 0.639
Qs Ac 54052 4.98 1016205 93.57 15751 1.45 0.056
9c 9h 200352 18.45 882744 81.28 2912 0.27 0.185
Kd Qd 127723 11.76 952193 87.68 6092 0.56 0.120