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Nick_Foxx
09-27-2004, 03:34 PM
is there a MATHEMATICAL (rather than monte carlo) solution to calculating the probability of , say, eventually making a 7-5 after the third draw when you start with 3 to the nuts (i.e., 2-4-5)?

any help from math/stats majors greatly appreciated... if anyone has actually run some simulations, i'd like to hear their answers as well

mike

fnord_too
09-27-2004, 04:33 PM
You can do this iteritively. I never finished the code for 2-7, but I have some code for A-5 that could tell you this sort of thing. Also, by hand, you could do a probability chain. That is, you can get 0, 1 or 2 cards to help in the first draw, what are the chances for each. Repeat with the second draw with the now modified stub from each of the new starting points. It's kind of like a decision tree, pain to do for tripple draw though. Coding is much easier imo.

Nick_Foxx
09-27-2004, 06:08 PM
for a-5 triple draw, i had calculated the probability of making a wheel when starting with 3 to a wheel and staying in for all 3 draws regardless as being around 13%... is this what you're getting in your sims?

mike