Lack of Confidence

What do you do if you bankroll is bigger than your confidence?


Say that a sudden windfall (tourney win, inheritance, bank robbery, etc.) has more than doubled your bankroll, but you still feel like you are not ready for a step up in limits. Should you step up, and be ready to step back down; step up and possibly blow it all; or stay at a lower limit until you think you are ready?


What I mean is, should the level you play at be governed by your bankroll or by your assessment of your abilities?


Craig

I'll go with abilities. Why take a sudden windfall and give it away if you don't feel your ready to step up? Have you been killing the limit your playing at now? If not, keep studying the game, and move up when you're ready. I actually saw a 2-4 player hit a jackpot for $3,000 once and run to the 15-30 game. He gave back about 2 grand. I thought that was the stupidest thing I ever saw. It showed absolutely no respect for the value of a dollar, and I suspect he was pretty angry with himself later on. Don't be that guy.

Depends on the limits you are playing. If you are playing .5/1 online and winning, you should for sure use your bankroll to play at a limit that is more significant. If you are playing $3/6 live and are only losing slightly, use your bankroll to maintain at that limit and try to improve your game. I would never use a gifted bankroll to play at a higher limit that I have little chance to win or improve my game. If you are losing miserably at the lowest limits, use your new found cash for lessons, books, videos, or slots.

The lower your EV, the higher your bankroll needs to be to stand fluctuations.


If your EV if negative you need enough money to outlast your lifetime. I suspect you don't have the bankroll for that, and are playing to win.


If your BB/hour ratio is decresed significantly by moving up to a larger limit, your bankroll needs are not as simple as "I play for 10 times as much, so I need 10 times as much," which matches your intution of playing where you're confident.


You could, of course, test the waters. But any evaluation of whether you're a winning player will have to come from "scouting" rather than statistics- by the time your stats confirm an EV of negative, you probably wouldn't have that nice bankroll any more. But I think 10 hours of play can probably help you size up your skill relative to the opposition, which will give you an intuitional measure of your EV in that game.


2ndGoat

Bankroll IS confidence. Playing experience IS confidence. Unless you are planning to never step up, you should do so now. It's easy enough to step back down, regroup, and think about what happened before testing deeper waters again.


Tommy

I would also add that most players spend to much time agonizing over whether to move up in limits. The fact is that it's still HE, and as long as you're playing 20-40 or less the mid-limit games often play about the same as the LL games. Just because you're flinging red chips around now doesn't mean that AA is suddenly an underdog to J8s.

Lack of confidence is only a good thing for the crazy and wild folk since it will tend to make them more selective. For everybody else, its a bad thing. I therefore suggest that very few games will be beatable for you if your confidence is lacking, no matter the reason.


Do not blow your windfall in the bigger games. Set a reasonable loss limit (such as 50bb), play selectively, and if you lose that much then play lower.


There is no particular reason you have to regularly play at only one limit. You want to take selective shots at the bigger games, playing your regular limit unless the bigger limit game looks particularly good. If things go well, you will find yourself regularly playing the bigger games unless its particularly bad.


- Louie

"Don't be that guy."

the absolute best statement ever. just dont do it, dont be that guy.

well said.

Thanks all for your responses.


I have been playing 3/6, though not enough to have a good measure of whether I am killing it. I am up, and mostly win, but the swings are gigantic.


Most of my time has been spent playing tourneys, particularly NL.


I think I'll try the 6/12, but as 2ndGoat said, I'll need to base my decision on feel instead of statistically significant results, and I'm not sure I won't be deceiving myself.


Anyway, thanks again,

Craig