MLB 9/27

[Billy Baroo]

StL +129 1 unit
BAL -120 2 units
TB +190 .5 units
Tex +120 2 units

StL +129 IMO slim value here, but +EV nonetheless. St. Louis is a great team starting a good pitcher. Houston has a lot going for them this game (at home in a big game with a very good starter) but I just don't think that's enough to justify this line.

BAL -120 Weird game with weird lines. I'm betting this game with no juice because Toronto is going at +120 at another book. I'm basically just looking to scalp here, but if I can't scalp it I won't be at all upset. Halladay is making just his 2nd start coming off an injury and the Blue Jays are pathetic on the road.

TB +190 I think this line is too high, but I'm having trouble figuring exactly how much lower it should be, so I'm only going 1/2 a unit. I think the line is inflated because of Boston's past dominance of Tampa. Even with Arroyo starting I don't see Boston winning 65% of their games in this spot, so I'm going the other way.

Tex +120 Texas is very good at home and I think Colon is very overrated (if he's better than Kenny Rogers it's certainly not by much). I'm a little surprised Texas isn't a slight favorite, so getting them at +120 is big.

[MicroBob]

TEX +118
NYM +208
KC +142
COL +176



TEX +115 - totally agree with Billy.
I can never get the timing right on Kenny Rogers but I'm trying again. I think TEX is a slight favorite in this game.
Accidentally took them at +1.5 -137 at 1.5 units. then put another .5 on them at +118 as I had originally intended so now I'm REALLY pulling for the Rangers on this one.


NYM +208 - Trachsel has pitched decently in his last 3. Payl Byrd doesn't exactly amaze me and what exactly is the Braves' incentive anyway?
Mets seem to be playing somewhat inspired ball of late.
At +208 the Mets easily have value on this one.


KC +142 - Zach Greinke has pitcher extremely well in 6 of his last 7 starts. Jake Westbrook for CLE is pretty good too but definite value on KC imo (although I thought the same thing yesterday too).


COL +176 - have gone back and forth on whether to do this one. decided throw one of my measly units down. LA has a lot to play for but Shawn estes has been pitching decently and Edwin Jackson doesn't impress enough yet to the extent that he can be such a strong favorite. He has good stuff overall and LA is obviously the better team overall, but there is value in COL me thinks.

[MicroBob]

NYM/ATL got rained-out.
bummer, i really like that pick.


DH tomorrow. Lots of AAA guys playing in 1 game or another for both teams I suspect should level the field even more.
Won't want to strain their arms, etc.
Example, if both games are close ATL will only use Smoltz in one of them.
If the NYM are listed as big dogs again I'll take them in both games if necessary.


TB is up 2-0 in the 4th. I almost went with Billy on this one. Now I'm wishing I had.
Although Kazmir left the game in the 4th with a no-hitter and 6k's (injury I would guess) and was replaced by Jorge Sosa.

[MicroBob]

Crap....right after I post BSN scored 5 in the 5th and leads 7-2 in the 8th.

Sorry Billy...certainly didn't mean to jinx it.


TEX and KC both just surrendered 1-run leads in the 8th of their games.
I might wind up being VERY happy that I accidentally took TEX at +1.5

[MicroBob]

TEX gave up another and lost 5-3.
TEX also had the bases-loaded with 0 out in the 9th.
Ouch.

KC gave up 6 in the final 2 innings and lost 6-1.

On top of that, WSH can't score diddly-squat against DAL.

COL leads LA 2-0 so I might salvage something tonight....but otherwise it looks like my hot-streak has come to an end (or, more optimistically, just a little early-week pause).

[Billy Baroo]

0 for 4. Lost 5.9 units. Decided to play poker all day at the casino so I didn't even catch an arb on Baltimore (which I'm almost certain I could have gotten had I looked up the lines before gametime)... I deserve to be kicked in the balls.

[MicroBob]

TOR finished at +137 on Bodog and you probably could have done even better elsewhere.


How does one decide which games to try to pull-off one of these?
do you just make a guess as to which games are likely to move the other way for you.

note - very very very new to sports-betting....will likely get Wong's Sharp-betting book at some point.
As of 3 weeks ago I didn't know that taking a team at +155 was called the 'money-line' much less ML.

[craig r]

how many sites did you post this at? LOL

craig

[Billy Baroo]

2, I've decided to move over to SSB and post my picks over there from now on. Micro Bob seems to be very good, especially for a beginner, but he's the only one responding to my baseball posts and I would like to get more feedback about my picks than from just one person. I'm having a great year betting baseball (long before I started posting my picks here), but I still have a ton to learn and am not near to where I would like to be. Hopefully I can get a greater volume of feedback over there.

On the rare chance that anyone is actually interested in my future picks, they can see them at www.sharpsportsbetting.com (http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com) in the MLB forum.

[Lori]

Id like you to cross-post here Billy.

I'm a poor noob which is why I don't respond, but I do read your posts and enjoy them, and by the time the playoffs start I hope to have a valid opinion daily rather than a pick every few days.

Lori

[craig r]

You definetely should be able to. Sometimes you have to ask though, especially in the baseball forum. But, Colin Caster and Goats will usually answer. As well, as Rick Peterman and, I think, Sublime. They are good guys over there.

craig

[craig r]

The playoffs are the hardest games to cap. Especially after the division series. The key is figuring out who the public teams are. I thought Boston and NYY would be the teams to fade, but I am starting to think that MIN is becoming more and more public. Especially with Santana and all the talk about neither BOS or NYY wanting to play the Twins. But, I will probably pass on the AL anyway, because during the playoffs with Boston I find it very hard to be objective (but that is just me...and possibly Sublime from his picture).

craig

[Billy Baroo]

[ QUOTE ]
TOR finished at +137 on Bodog and you probably could have done even better elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

You had to rub it in, didn't you. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif I was in a beautiful 10/20 game at Foxwoods that I wouldn't have left if I was set on fire, so I figured the +EV of staying there outweighed the +EV of nailing my arb.

[ QUOTE ]
How does one decide which games to try to pull-off one of these?
do you just make a guess as to which games are likely to move the other way for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'm way too tired to answer this question properly right now, but you basically look at a lot of overnight lines on a game, and if you find lines at different books where the cost of the favorite is close to the payoff for the dog, you only need the line to move a few points to catch your arb (and often times it's not that hard to predict. I'll make a post more fully explaining this tomorrow.

[MicroBob]

Looking forward to that.

Will probably check out sharpsportsbetting too as I'm really enjoying this so far and think I would enjoy it even more if I knew a bit more about what on earth I was doing.

I was a regular on BJ21.com a few years ago before I knew how to play poker. So I already have plenty of respect for Wong.
Still get their e-mail newsletter which always includes a quick blurb to check out sharpsportsbetting.


This sports-betting forum here is still getting going and I think it will continue to grow.
Enjoy your posts and have already learned a couple things just on your observations of "I'm only betting this one because I think I can catch an arb" and other ideas.

But don't stray too far....there should be more baseball chatter during the post-season I suspect.

[MicroBob]

I tried a couple of games last night just on hunches of which way the line might move. I didn't find too much interesting stuff comparing lines.....but one game is closing in and I might get a chance to pull off my first one of these.
Still sniffing around a little bit.