Straight flush draw on a paired board, what do you do?

[durron597]

First hand, no reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t800)
Hero (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t800)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of t15.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t15, MP3 (poster) calls t15, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t120) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks,

What about if it said:

Flop: (t120) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks,

[Bremen]

How does MP3 post a blind on the first hand of a SNG?

I check fold (or call if its underbet/lots of callers). I'm not going to try semi-bluffing 5 people, to great a chance of a massive rereaise and I don't want to put all my chips in on whats probably a coin flip.

[rybones]

I think this is better than a coin flip. I do not know the buy-in but at most levels we would have seen a raise with K,Q (not that you should or should not raise with k,q, I just rarely see that hand limp) so there is likely no boat out there. The way I see it, there are 9 flush outs and 8 straight outs and of those 17, 2 give you the absolute nuts. If it is pot bet, I call. If no one bets and it gets to me I value bet the min to keep as many in as possible. if it is min bet to me and there were or likely will be a few callers I re-raise the min trying for even more value and I hope everyone calls. If some bets half my stack or more I MIGHT fold.

this is just my line, comments welcome.

Ryan

[Bremen]

pokenum -h th jh - 9c 2c -- 9h 9d 8h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9d 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh Th 423 42.73 567 57.27 0 0.00 0.427
9c 2c 567 57.27 423 42.73 0 0.00 0.573

hrm, I thought the odds were slightly better than that for the draw. Granted if its underbet I would definitly call.

Anyone want to correct this fish? 8-)

[rybones]

yes, I am a certified fish!! and your numbers are fabulous, but I still play it the way I described in my last post.

Now, if you would like to comment on my analysis that would be helpful to this fish. However just posting odds and calling someone a fish does not actually make that person a fish. As a newbie, you may not know that 2+2 is a place for folks to learn and investigate different lines of play. Perhaps there is something in my post you could learn from. Even if it is mostly wrong, your own post admits there may be a time to call a bet with these cards. Perhaps you and I just disagree about what that amount should be? I still say playing that hand for value is the way to go.

again, this is just my line and any actual comments are always welcome.

Ryan

p.s. this fish plays the 2+2 private tournament on Sundays at pokers stars 13:00 and tries to play the 2+2 two table sng's on thursday nights. I would love to give away my money to anyone who cares to play. This even includes you bremen. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Bremen]

uh, I was calling myself the fish.... sorry for the confusion.

[rybones]

well, I guess I was confused. Perhaps the fact that you felt the need to appologize means my note was a bit harsh. I appologise as well. It has been an issue with me lately that I see posts that are rude for the sake of being rude and which also present no helpful analysis. Alas, I read yours as such and went off. Again, I appologize. I should have read your post more carefully.

Very sincerely,

Ryan

[durron597]

Well, I suppose the vagueness of my post left something to be desired. So let me ask some specific questions:

1) If you check, and someone bets, do you call or raise?
2) If you check, and someone bets, and someone else calls, do you fold, call or raise?
3) If you check, and someone bets, and someone else raises, do you fold, call, or raise?
4) If you bet, and get multiple callers, what do you do on the turn if you make your straight or flush (but not both)?
5) If you bet, and get multiple callers, what do you do on the turn if a blank hits?
6) The same as questions 4 and 5, except only one caller.
7) If you bet and get raised, what do you do?

When answering any/all of these questions, be sure to specify what you do if the SB does any of these actions (i.e. the SB check-raises you).

[Bremen]

No, the fault is mine. I did not specify to whom I was refering.

[rybones]

let me start by saying: Durron, I try to always read your posts as they are great!! That said what I really want are your answers to these questions.

Anyway, I will answer one of the scenerios as there are too many for the time I have to write.

5) If I bet -- from previous post note my bet was a min raise value bet -- and I get several callers and then a blank hits the turn, I would again min raise! The reason is that I figured my odds of hitting based on the ability to see both the turn and the river. If I slow down now I am not extracting as much money from the hand as I could be when my card does hit. I have faith that my card will hit and that if it does not that I will still be able to get that money back later. Moreover, I also know that many is the fish who calls my first bet hoping to hit their hand (as the bet gave them odds to call) but who will not call my second bet because now there is only one card to come. There is a chance that this person would have had me beat if they stayed and I am ok if they stay and ok if they go(this is stated in a general way as the original question left the possibility that you could make your hand and an other might make the nuts). The extension of this question is then what happens if the card comes on the river and someone else bets hard and could have the nuts? The answer is: "I don't know, it depends." On what? "lots and lots of stuff."

There are some assumptions here but if you take those as possibilities for how the hand would play out then this is my answer to question 5.

As always, these are just my thoughts and comments are always welcome.

Ryan

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
only one card to come

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that YOUR hand loses a LOT of value when there's only one card to come?

Edit: this is especially true when you're drawing to the idiot end of the straight flush. That's why typically the accepted wisdom with a monster draw is to get allin on the flop if you can. However, the paired board changes the numbers a little bit, which is why I made the post in the first place.

[rybones]

I do get that it loses value, but I also think you are neglecting that I originally value bet the hand based on odds of that hand hitting by the river. My point on the "only one card to come" issue is that I (and I think most folks) figure that the odds of completing an open ended straight flush draw (that is to complete either the straight or the flush, not the straight flush) are 1 in 1.54 by the river. I figure that if I do not see the river, those odds are actually less. What I meant then was that not seeing the river was a bad choice if you could avoid it.

Do you agree with that? If not, I am curious as to why. If so, then I am still unsure what is wrong with my line on how to play the hand given the circumstances described. Again, this is not a criticism of what you say. Only I truly do not think I get your responce. I know the accepted wisdom is to get it all in on the flop, but I would not throw it all in here with the paired board. I guess I don't even know if I would push without the paired board. In the situation described, I would want to keep as many players in as long as possible. At the same time I would like an escape route if I do not hit the river. Moreover, I feel (and on this I am sure I could be wrong) that if I hit the straight or the flush but not the straight flush I could make a resonable descision as to how to play the show down based on my read of whoever is left.

Additionally, I think my quote about the idiot end of a straight flush is from a different thread and I hope you read it as a joke.

Again, these are just my thoughts and comments would be welcome.

Ryan

[durron597]

Yes but if you bet the flop and check the turn, that is often considered to be a sign of weakness and you will often be bet into on the turn, making the river an expensive card to see.

However, if you do something like check-raise the flop, then check the turn, often times you will be allowed to see the river for free. This is especially true if you go allin, because you increase your folding equity now by pushing, and if you do get called you get to see both cards.

The reason why I posted this thread in the first place was that while I know the accepted wisdom for a straight-flush draw is to check-raise allin, but I wasn't sure if that was still true with the paired board.

As far as the "idiot end of the straight-flush" is concerned, what I was actually referring to is that if someone has paired the low card (has the 9 in my posted example) then you have 6 more outs (any J, any T). On the other hand, in the KKQ example, you dont have those outs.

[Jason Strasser]

Durron,

This hand has a lot of value and is interesting.

First of all, I personally do not mind playing this in a multiway pot. I understand the propensity for AXs to limp exists, but your hand has other ways of winning besides flushing.

There are a lot of ways to approach this hand. I would tend to check here a vast majority of the time in a multi-way pot. Now, what I do after the check is very dependent on the situation. Folding is probably the last thing I'd do, unless it involved a situation where I had no folding equity (or thought I had no folding equity due to a read, IE, I am very sure my opponent would play an eight like this and I am very sure he would call my all in with an 8).

If someone made a nice pot sized bet to about 150, I think I would push all in over the top if I was heads up. The folding equity you will have, combined with pure value of your hand, makes this play positive EV. However, if you are not confident you can get heads up, I am all for seeing the turn for a good price in a multiway pot. So if the next person to act bet something like 75, and 3 people called, I would not raise--and just know that my hand has plenty of value to call and see the turn.

There is no problem with playing this hand conservatively. A straight flush draw is great, and two overcards are great, but the board is paired. The draw consequently is just not that good.

In short, it is hard to summarize this hand in one big statement. I'd check, and play the hand from there. Betting out stinks because getting flat called behind you gives you little information about your opponents. Then what would you do on a bricked turn? Bet out again? Check fold??

The action has to come on the flop, if you choose to play this hand aggressively. You could also choose to play straight up pot odds, which in this case would almost always be check calling the flop and making a turn decision.

Hope this helped,

-Jason