Effect of Stack Size on EV

[The Dude]

I don't play NL very much anymore, mainly because I'm not that interested in shortstack, and there just isn't any midstakes deep stack NL in CA.

But playing in Commerce's $100 buy-in game($2-3 blinds) a while back, I came across an interesting hand. I know my EV in this game is higher the deeper my stack gets, but I'm not sure how much I should pass on marginally +EV situations in order to preserve my stack size.

UTG limps for, UTG+1 ($450) raises to $15, two loose bad players cold-call, and LP ($350) raises to $30. LP is fairly passive preflop, and he will only reraise w/ AA-QQ and maybe JJ and AKs. SB calls,and I ($315) call in the BB w/ 66. UTG folds, UTG+1 re-raises to $100. Only the LP raiser calls to me.

So there's $290 in the pot and $70 to me. So my question is this: Does the fact that I can't reload when I lose this pot make folding correct here? Anybody not call the first time around? FWIW, I'm 90% certain both opponents have big pocket pairs here.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Well.... I would fold. Mainly because i think the call is a bit thin to begin with. To really make this profitable, you have to excpect to make 10:1 on your PF call. Also you cant reload if u miss. I would just toss it and wait for a better, cheaper time to get in w/ a mid pair. I used to consitently lose money w/ 33, 44, 55 and 66 because i made CCs for way to huge of bets too often. After i started to really look at what my implied odds were, i started to make tons of $$ w/ those hands.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

BTW, yes i would call the first time around. Lets say that after the reraise it comes back to you and you can call according to implied odds (lets pretend u get 12:1 implied for sheezle!). Well, its expensive but profitable but... its 8:1 that u hit, and a bit more that u win. If that makes a big difference in your stack size, and u miss, the next pair that u can limp w/ will not make as much EV because of stack size. If you can make a better bet later (i.e limp w/ 55 and get 30:1 implied odds), w/ more EV, you should think about not making the worse bet now. I hope u can make sense out of this, i just woke up.

[CASHIZ]

Total fold the first time around. You should only be playing s-m poket pairs from mid to late postion cheaply. Don't call raises with these hands, you got to remember that your 8 to 1 to hit your set. So these hands only really pay in a big field. You should have at least 4-5 callers in the pot with you in order to get the right implied odds to be able to call a raise. If not get in cheap or not at all.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Are you kidding me? This is NL. I often cold call a raise HU when i know ill get paid off. I make a LOT of money from CCing w/ s-m pairs. You should play limit.

[Yeknom58]

I think the first call is pretty routine, the pot is going to be like 7 ways and huge.

The 2nd raise I think is an easy fold. Even though there's tons of dead money in the pot, I don't think it's enough to justify a call. Assuming at least one of them will call an all-in if you flop a set then your impled odds look good but I still don't think it's enough. If you had like 100-200 more in your stack then your implied odds start looking like a call but at your current stack I don't think this is a call.

[The Dude]

Nobody in this game is going to be able to lay down an overpair for as little as I have. It would take an A (or a K, in the case of QQ) in order to get these opponents to lay down their high pp.

I'm expecting to triple up in the case that I do hit my set. In fact, I did hit my set, and I did triple up - but that's really not important.

So let me rephrase the question: If you knew you would triple up when you flop your set (which means that calling in and of itself is clearly correct), should you fold because of lost EV in your stack size? How close is it? This is the real point of my post.

[GimmeDaWatch]

I can understand thinking you're likely to get called by one if you hit, but how on earth can you presume that you'll triple up? If an overcard flops to either of their pairs, this is very unlikely to happen, also if the board is monotone, if one has AK, etc.

[GimmeDaWatch]

Sorry for my last reply, I know its not the point of the post, The Dude abides, et. al. Clearly, its just a judgement call based on how much you value your deeper stack and not just a mathemtical calculation of proper implied odds. I live in LA and have been to Commerce a couple times, but have never played in the NL game there. Just wondering, with the shallow stacks and standard raises of $15, are people just buying in, re-buying in, and doubling up all the time until they've got a deeper stack? It seems like it might be a pretty frustrating game if you're the shallow man on the totem poll and cant enter any pots without donating 15% of your stack.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If you knew you would triple up when you flop your set

[/ QUOTE ]

slow down, tiger, that's a big assumption. maybe i'll grant you a generous assumption - assume that you'll go to the felt with both players when you flop a set (although why you would think QQ and KK would get all in on a board of Axx is beyond me).

ok, so assume that you're against two big pairs and that you flop a set. one community card is dead b/c it hit you, so there are 4 left. both villains now have 2 outs 4 times to run down your set. as a very rough estimate, say 2 outs = 4%, so 16% for each of them to hit the set, so about 30% that one of them will (not 32% b/c that would double-count when they both hit). and there are miscellaneous times you'll get run down by 1-card straights or flushes. so even getting all-in when you flop your precious set doesn't guarentee you anything.