HU opp goes all in over top of my QQ. Call?

[maryfield48]

In my home tourney last night, I'm heads up with about 12,000 chips, villain has 3,000. Blinds 200/400, ante 100. I pick up QQ in SB, and raise to 1200. Villain, fairly tight in normal play, goes all in.

I know that means he has a pair that he likes. If it's Ks or As I'm in bad shape. What's the play?

[tubbyspencer]

Call

[reecelights]

What's the payout difference? At first glance I think it's not only a call, but a push. You're only a dog to 2 hands. But if it's winner take all, I would consider folding.

[mackthefork]

Lets say he will do this with 99-AA and AK he has 16 ways of making AK, 6 AA 6 KK 1 QQ 6 JJ 6 TT and 6 99.

You have a pot with 4200 in and you have to call 1800.

The times where he has AK (34% of the time) its 57/43 to you
Where he has AA or KK (25.5% of the time) its 80/20 to him
Where he has QQ (2% of the time) its 50/50
Where he has JJ-99 (38.5% of the time) its 80/20 to you

So you are calling 1800 to win
6000*0.57*0.34= 1163
6000*0.20*0.255= 306
6000*0.50*0.02= 24
6000*0.80*0.385= 1849

So if these are his standards you stand to put 1800 more in to win 1163+306+24+1849=3342 which seems good to me.

Anyone please feels free to correct my numbers if you think they are either incorrect or the calculation is flawed.

Edit - its rare you can gauge absolutely what someones standards are but this case in particular has a very wide margin for error.

Regards Mack

PS Call

[patrick dicaprio]

call. if you lose you are still about even in chips.

Pat

[willie]

is this question serious?

[Daliman]

No offense, but even asking this question shows a pretty large lack of understanding not only of hand values, but Short stack play, HU play late for title, play with large blinds, basic No limit play, tourney play, and pot odds.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say he will do this with 99-AA and AK he has 16 ways of making AK, 6 AA 6 KK 1 QQ 6 JJ 6 TT and 6 99.

You have a pot with 4200 in and you have to call 1800.

The times where he has AK (34% of the time) its 57/43 to you
Where he has AA or KK (25.5% of the time) its 80/20 to him
Where he has QQ (2% of the time) its 50/50
Where he has JJ-99 (38.5% of the time) its 80/20 to you

So you are calling 1800 to win
6000*0.57*0.34= 1163
6000*0.20*0.255= 306
6000*0.50*0.02= 24
6000*0.80*0.385= 1849

So if these are his standards you stand to put 1800 more in to win 1163+306+24+1849=3342 which seems good to me.

Anyone please feels free to correct my numbers if you think they are either incorrect or the calculation is flawed.

Edit - its rare you can gauge absolutely what someones standards are but this case in particular has a very wide margin for error.

Regards Mack

PS Call

[/ QUOTE ]

Mack good post. This is often a great way to look at things. I would guess the opponent had even lower standards than you assumed. And as your example showed ... no brainer must play hand.

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but even asking this question shows a pretty large lack of understanding not only of hand values, but Short stack play, HU play late for title, play with large blinds, basic No limit play, tourney play, and pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes u are VERY CORRECT, as you point out the question is not really a close call and shows that he needs study..... BUT .. the fact he is asking is at least a good sign.

Better to learn before playing above's one head and going near broke.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Mack good post. This is often a great way to look at things. I would guess the opponent had even lower standards than you assumed. And as your example showed ... no brainer must play hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would tend to agree as it was SB vs BB by the sounds of it, could have been even smaller PP or weaker aces.

Regards Mack

[maryfield48]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say he will do this with 99-AA and AK he has 16 ways of making AK, 6 AA 6 KK 1 QQ 6 JJ 6 TT and 6 99.

You have a pot with 4200 in and you have to call 1800.

The times where he has AK (34% of the time) its 57/43 to you
Where he has AA or KK (25.5% of the time) its 80/20 to him
Where he has QQ (2% of the time) its 50/50
Where he has JJ-99 (38.5% of the time) its 80/20 to you

So you are calling 1800 to win
6000*0.57*0.34= 1163
6000*0.20*0.255= 306
6000*0.50*0.02= 24
6000*0.80*0.385= 1849

So if these are his standards you stand to put 1800 more in to win 1163+306+24+1849=3342 which seems good to me.

Anyone please feels free to correct my numbers if you think they are either incorrect or the calculation is flawed.

Edit - its rare you can gauge absolutely what someones standards are but this case in particular has a very wide margin for error.

Regards Mack

PS Call

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the math, Mack. I think his standards would be a little tighter, maybe take out Pairs lower than JJ. I'm not saying he's correct, but I think he's that tight. That makes the last line worth around 600, and I'm now putting in 1800 for around 2100. Is that right? And is it still a no-brainer?

I appreciate all contributions. I'll post another hand from the tourney shortly. Meanwhile, results of this one were, I called, he had KK, and his hand stood up.

My examination of the call decision probably betrays result-oriented thinking on my part. As another poster said, how will I know what I don't know unless I ask? (not directed at Mack /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[SmileyEH]

I would rather shoot myself in the face than fold.

-SmileyEH