Billy Baroo
09-26-2004, 01:38 AM
Way to go yesterday, Bob. My picks for today are as follows:
StL -161 2 units
PIT -141 1 units
NYM +169 1 unit
LA +154 1 unit
Ana -115 1 unit
STL -161 Another silly line on a Cardinals game. With two evenly matched pitchers, I think there'd be very slight value betting the cards... but these pitchers are not evenly matched. Marquis is an excellent ground ball pitcher who should be able to pitch his game in spite of Coors Field. Gisell is making his first start of the year and has gotten shelled in each of his 4 relief appearances. I'm tempted to put another unit on this.
PIT -141 I think this is the slimmest pick of the 4. I think Acevado for Cin is so bad that the Pirates win just barely more than 60% here. (Acevado doesn't strike people out, doesn't force a lot of ground balls, and lets up a ton of homers). Fogg for Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is mostly competant. There's also some chance the lines will move enough to pick up an arb... Still, now I'm wishing I only bet 1/2 a unit here.
NYM +169 IMO, Al Leiter deserves more respect than this line is giving him. The Mets win more than 38% here for sure. This was an easy bet for me to make.
LA +154 Betting the Dodgers again. Despite Tomko's recent success, I don't think he's much (if any) better than Weaver. I really don't think he's good enough to justify this line.
-115 Ana. I'm trying to catch an arb., that's it. The A's are at +113 at Canbet and the line has already moved quite a bit. I think there's an excellent chance of at least one book moving to +116 before the game starts at 8:05. Even if I don't catch the middle, my effective juice is so tiny that I make more in bonus money than I lose to the juice.
StL -161 2 units
PIT -141 1 units
NYM +169 1 unit
LA +154 1 unit
Ana -115 1 unit
STL -161 Another silly line on a Cardinals game. With two evenly matched pitchers, I think there'd be very slight value betting the cards... but these pitchers are not evenly matched. Marquis is an excellent ground ball pitcher who should be able to pitch his game in spite of Coors Field. Gisell is making his first start of the year and has gotten shelled in each of his 4 relief appearances. I'm tempted to put another unit on this.
PIT -141 I think this is the slimmest pick of the 4. I think Acevado for Cin is so bad that the Pirates win just barely more than 60% here. (Acevado doesn't strike people out, doesn't force a lot of ground balls, and lets up a ton of homers). Fogg for Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is mostly competant. There's also some chance the lines will move enough to pick up an arb... Still, now I'm wishing I only bet 1/2 a unit here.
NYM +169 IMO, Al Leiter deserves more respect than this line is giving him. The Mets win more than 38% here for sure. This was an easy bet for me to make.
LA +154 Betting the Dodgers again. Despite Tomko's recent success, I don't think he's much (if any) better than Weaver. I really don't think he's good enough to justify this line.
-115 Ana. I'm trying to catch an arb., that's it. The A's are at +113 at Canbet and the line has already moved quite a bit. I think there's an excellent chance of at least one book moving to +116 before the game starts at 8:05. Even if I don't catch the middle, my effective juice is so tiny that I make more in bonus money than I lose to the juice.