bad beat streaks?

[golden goose]

Currently I have been playin really well, in my opinion and consistenly losing. I dont keep great stats but i started tracking a few things. I have lost all-in as 3-1,5-1, all the way up to 20-1 favorite, in 15 of last 25 games. I started doing this after a fairly long streak of bad beats.
as people get better.

I've lost 35- of last forty. At least half of those are coming with rediculous bad beats. I think that either i am the unluckiest person in the world, or 15-20 buyins at certain level is not a sufficient bankroll.

I think its neat though, that with this string of bad luck, streaks of good luck must exist.I just hope i dont smash my somputer before they hit.

[rjb03]

Bad luck does exist, as does good luck. Don't focus on the bad beats. Maybe your time would be better spent analyzing why you are losing the tournaments the other half of the time you don't suffer bad beats.

[willie]

just keep playin right

in 1.5 weeks i jumped to 20+2s and just got beat by every longshot, which led me to the conclusion that the 20 players are JUST as bad as the 10 players callin on longshots.

i was takin cointosses, with the low pp side, hitting sets and still losing. my roll went from 600 to 1.2, with 1.2 left on my last 10+1 i won and i've rolled back to 300 in a few days.

just keep playin right, i lost 4 dominating hands in a row, the odds of that are horrrrendous, i had all my high pp beat by low pps, it was just insane.

stick it out and keep playin right, it'll turn, it statistically has to.

[SmileyEH]

Losing 30 buy ins is stastically near impossible for a winning player. You had to be making significant mistakes to lose that much.

-SmileyEH

[Desdia72]

compared to all the other streets, i lose the most chips and SNgs on the river. in my last two SNGs, i've lost on the river to hands that were dealt straights with a pair of Queens. at least in the two table that i played in under my girlfriend's ID, i got 2nd when my pair of Queens lost to A K where a 2 3 4 and 5 (on the river), but then whadda know, in this one table SNG against A J...i lose the same exact way to a straight on the river with Queens again. everytime i hear people say, "well, instead of harping on how many rivers you get beat on, maybe you should analyze your play", i laugh.
on a play like this, there's nothing to analyze.

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #720514280: Tournament #2799652, Hold'em No Limit -
Level IV (50/100) - 2004/09/25 - 22:26:28 (ET)
Table '2799652 1' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: dinozzi (1185 in chips)
Seat 3: dober8 (2400 in chips)
Seat 4: periwinkle (240 in chips)
Seat 5: Taaz (1325 in chips)
Seat 6: theorem (2100 in chips)
Seat 7: MalcTom (1750 in chips)
Seat 8: Desdia72 (990 in chips)
Seat 9: dragonlance8 (3510 in chips)
periwinkle: posts small blind 50
Taaz: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Desdia72 [Qd Qh]
theorem: folds
MalcTom: raises 100 to 200
Desdia72: raises 790 to 990 and is all-in
dragonlance8: folds
dinozzi: folds
dober8: folds
periwinkle: folds
Taaz: folds
MalcTom: calls 790
*** FLOP *** [4c 2h Jc]
*** TURN *** [4c 2h Jc] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [4c 2h Jc 3d] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MalcTom: shows [Jd Ad] (a straight, Ace to Five)
Desdia72: shows [Qd Qh] (a pair of Queens)
MalcTom collected 2130 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2130 | Rake 0
Board [4c 2h Jc 3d 5d]
Seat 2: dinozzi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: dober8 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: periwinkle (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Taaz (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: theorem folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: MalcTom showed [Jd Ad] and won (2130) with a straight, Ace to
Five
Seat 8: Desdia72 showed [Qd Qh] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 9: dragonlance8 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[rjb03]

When I said analyze your play, I'm talking about the play that doesn't involve "bad beats" where you can do nothing about the outcome even if you play them perfectly. Surely not every loss you have suffered was because of some horrible curse of bad luck. You said you lose half of your SNG's because of bad luck and bad beats; what about the other half?

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
When I said analyze your play, I'm talking about the play that doesn't involve "bad beats" where you can do nothing about the outcome even if you play them perfectly. Surely not every loss you have suffered was because of some horrible curse of bad luck. You said you lose half of your SNG's because of bad luck and bad beats; what about the other half?

[/ QUOTE ]

let me clarify: i never said i lose half of my SNGs on the river, i said i lose the most chips and alot of SNGs on the river. it could be ITM in 2nd place or in 8th place OOTM.

[SmileyEH]

How many Sit n' Go's have you played Desdia?

-SmileyEH

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
When I said analyze your play, I'm talking about the play that doesn't involve "bad beats" where you can do nothing about the outcome even if you play them perfectly. Surely not every loss you have suffered was because of some horrible curse of bad luck. You said you lose half of your SNG's because of bad luck and bad beats; what about the other half?

[/ QUOTE ]

mean by losing the most chips and/or pots on the river than any other street:

1. me-A K, two pair on the flop opponent-6 6, catches a 6 on the river after calling heavy flop, turn, and river bets. no flush, paired cards, or straight draws on board.
2. me- (flop)trip Kings opponent- 3 5-suited all-in, catches spades on turn and river for a flush (he also called a nice raise preflop with this hand in the face of about 3 other callers).
3. me- A J, TP Js on flop with Ace kicker opponent- J 10, calls a helathy bet on flop and checkraise on the turn all to catch a 10 on river. i layed down on the river and he showed me his hand.
4. me- Q Q opponent- 6 5o, called a my reraise to another player who was already all-in as a shortstack, a healthy bet on the flop, a checkraise on the turn, only to catch straight card on river. i layed down on the river and i got to see his made hand after he bet.
5. me- A Jo all-in about 1700 in chips (2-table on the bubble) opponent (chipleader)- 5 6o, he calls and catches 5 on the river.
6. me- trip Js opponent- A high offsuit, wins on the river when a forth diamond gives him the nut flush to his Ace (called a healthy bet on the flop, i called his his raise on the turn). i layed down to the river bet and he showed me his hand.

these are just a few. after awhile, i just said, "f#ckit" and stopped documenting them. no matter how many hands i had to laydown, lost, or got busted on the river...writing down every one was'nt gonna change anything.

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
How many Sit n' Go's have you played Desdia?

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

somewhere between 300 and 400. i don't play a huge amount of SNGs everyday, so a bunch of river beats to me that occur in a short period of time have a more detrimental effect that it does to someone who plays 400 SNGs in a month. in my early SNG career, i did'nt really track a good bit of the ones i played until i started that "SNG Heartbreak" thread on ITM. by then i had already played about at least 150+.

[patrick dicaprio]

i know how you feel, so much so that I wonder if your post is really mine. in my last 15, which by the way is frustrating but not statistically significant, i have lost 12 times when all in as a favorite. four times i flopped sets got all in and lost, two of those to runner runner hands. Three were higher pair vs lower pair with mine never worse than QQ. three more were hands where i was dominating my opponent. man, it sucks balls, but keep playing well and it will turn around. god help me if it doesnt.

Pat

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
Currently I have been playin really well, in my opinion and consistenly losing. I dont keep great stats but i started tracking a few things. I have lost all-in as 3-1,5-1, all the way up to 20-1 favorite, in 15 of last 25 games. I started doing this after a fairly long streak of bad beats.
as people get better.

I've lost 35- of last forty. At least half of those are coming with rediculous bad beats. I think that either i am the unluckiest person in the world, or 15-20 buyins at certain level is not a sufficient bankroll.

I think its neat though, that with this string of bad luck, streaks of good luck must exist.I just hope i dont smash my somputer before they hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

While that sort of losing streak is clearly statistical possible, it is FAR MOR statistically probably that you are not as good as you think.

It's a pretty funny give away when you say you don't keep great stats BUT and then start giving bad beat stats.

I believe a winning player should keep PERFECT stats. Of EVERY tourney. I also only heckle players that are complainers. As I have often posted, my favourite opponents are not the awful players that soon disappear (I never heckle them), it is the guys with a bit of a clue that play OK but have too many leaks to be winners and blame their losses on bad players or bad luck.

This may not be you, but I wouldn't bet against it

gl

[Eder]

Well AA cracked 4x in row with all my $$ in preflop...but have won a few 2 outers to offset these...cards happen

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
Well AA cracked 4x in row with all my $$ in preflop...but have won a few 2 outers to offset these...cards happen

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah but if i'm not mistaken that was all within the same tourney. You must have had an awful lot of luck (in other hands) /images/graemlins/wink.gif to have enough chips to lose with AA 4 times in the same tourney. Luck is a pain in the butt and often hard to recognize

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Losing 30 buy ins is stastically near impossible for a winning player. You had to be making significant mistakes to lose that much.


[/ QUOTE ]

I respectfully disagree, hope you never have to find out.

Regards Mack

[Eder]

naw Chill..only once in our tourney,but I did suck out twice there so I am ahead with luck haha