Well, this felt like a clusterhug.

[bisonbison]

MP1 is loose passive.
No read on CO.
BB seems loose after a couple of orbits.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.16 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB folds.

River: (11.16 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

[sthief09]

on the river, he won't call with anything worse other than an A-high flush draw, or maybe a pocket pair that he got feisty with. By checking, you let other potential flush draws bet. Will he have a flush draw and bet the river 1 in 12 times? Since the board is double paired high, it's possible that a small PP might try to run a bluff by you, though you don't see them raising the flop that often. There are only 2 jacks left, and that's exactly what he's representing, so I think you'll easily see a busted flush draw more than 1 in 12 times.

[Evan]

Looks a lot like my hand that you said I should call. Is this another win every once in a while and get to see his hand an discourage bluffs?

[bisonbison]

this was a "I think there's a 50% chance I'm gonna lose this hand (which is good.) and the rest of the time it's unclear how much he'll call vs. bluff, but I really don't want to call a raise and I'll have to."

[Evan]

I'm assuming you think that the 50% of the time is a busted nut flush draw taht will take a stab at teh river. If taht's what you mean then I think you're figure is a little too high. It's more that 5% but I think it's way less than 50%. It might even be closer to 5%, but I can still understand the call.

[bisonbison]

Well, I didn't really mean 50%, but I think it's much higher than 1 in 12 or whatever.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you think that the 50% of the time is a busted nut flush draw taht will take a stab at teh river. If taht's what you mean then I think you're figure is a little too high. It's more that 5% but I think it's way less than 50%. It might even be closer to 5%, but I can still understand the call.

[/ QUOTE ]


a busted nut flush draw has no reason to bet the river.

[Evan]

I think it will once in a while since the board is double paired and he think an Ace might be good . If you think that's really unlikely, then what hand does bet that we want to call? I'm trying to understand Bison's reasoning.

[Rubeskies]

Bison showed weakness on the river. This will make a lot of people perk up and bet busted draws and lone aces and such. Party players love to gamboooooool! To a gambler, what else is better than a bluff when somebody has shown weakness? Some people with aces might think they are betting the best hand.

You can't tell me you've never seen heads up bluff attempts on you when you've checked on the river.

[MAxx]

i like the check call on the river. you may get calls from A high, but that's about it from worse hands. so I would check/call b/c it prevents unecessarily losing an extra BB, while encouraging lesser hands to bet for you.

[bisonbison]

CO had AQs for the busted flush draw. MHIG.

[Nate tha' Great]

There is a good argument for just calling his raise on the flop and going for the check-raise on the turn if a blank comes off. It's really very similar to the "two overpair hands" section from SSHE (except that you are out of position). Another reason to just call on the flop and see how things develop on the turn is that, this way, you get to see what the BB does before acting(*). His cold call on the flop will mean trips a good percentage of the time, and he will almost always check-raise the turn if this is the case.

There is a risk, of course, that the turn will get checked around if you attempt this, but I think that is a risk worth taking in consideration of the *double* advantage of a more leveragable equity position on the turn and the chance to save bets if you are drawing almost dead to trips.

(*) MP could also have trips, but it is more likely that BB does. Do you see why?

[bisonbison]

I think I see what you're saying. In the case of the king dropping you would just check and call and fold to a BB c/r?

(*) MP could also have trips, but it is more likely that BB does. Do you see why?

Well because even with two loose-passives, a coldcall in MP is more likely to be a pocket pair, a bad ace or broadways than it is to involve a 9. A loose-passive player in the BB may call with any two cards here.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I see what you're saying. In the case of the king dropping you would just check and call and fold to a BB c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

If an ace had come off on the turn, I think the best play would be to bet (stop-n-go) with the intention of folding to a raise. The ace could easily induce the CO into checking behind, which you don't like; on the other hand it is very unlikely that somebody is going to gabmle by raising that card against a PFR without a strong, made hand.

The king is a little bit of a mess since it gives you a redraw to a gutshot, which means you're giving up a little bit more by bet-folding. So I think checking and calling if its one bet back to you is probably best.

[ QUOTE ]
(*) MP could also have trips, but it is more likely that BB does. Do you see why?

Well because even with two loose-passives, a coldcall in MP is more likely to be a pocket pair, a bad ace or broadways than it is to involve a 9. A loose-passive player in the BB may call with any two cards here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I knew that question would be too easy for you.