Slot Machine Story

[Al Mirpuri]

I have 15 minutes to kill so I play the slot machine in a slot machine parlor (or whatever the term is). I choose a machine that repays 97% of everything wagered in it. I put in my small change expecting to lose. However, this machine is a little different in that it is electronic roulette. (The payoff means that it is better than real life roulette.) I win just under $2 and quit. I go buy a hot dog. [All this happened in England and I have Americanised it for you all.] The funny thing is that whilst playing the roulette I became convinced that black was hot and so were evens. How this happened I do not know as I am familiar with the literature and know that it is not possible to beat roulette or the slots (unless they are progressive but there are few of those in England). Strange experience.

[luckycharms]

Incredible. There's something called a RNG (random number generator) inside every machine that ensures 100% random action. Nothing will ever be hot.... EVER.... except progressives, and even then, it's -EV

[bogey]

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing will ever be hot.... EVER.... except progressives, and even then, it's -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

how can progressives be hot? i thought progressives could be +EV if the jackpot gets big enough, but i dont know how they could be hot

[CORed]

No mystery. You just got lucky. Blacks and evens may have been hitting more than expected, but again, that is just a short term streak. In a random process, past results have no predictive value.

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
No mystery. You just got lucky. Blacks and evens may have been hitting more than expected, but again, that is just a short term streak. In a random process, past results have no predictive value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know all this.

The question concerned how I was seduced into believing otherwise though I knew what you have stated.

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nothing will ever be hot.... EVER.... except progressives, and even then, it's -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

how can progressives be hot? i thought progressives could be +EV if the jackpot gets big enough, but i dont know how they could be hot

[/ QUOTE ]

In Getting The Best Of It, David Sklansky states it is possible for progressives to be EV+ and so beatable.

[Al Mirpuri]

Another thought for you all to think upon is that with the slot machine returning 97% of everything wager it was not as EV- as real roulette which only returns 95%.

[Nemesis]

was it maybe just a 1 green spaced wheel... then it's the same as a real wheel with 1 instead of 2 greens.

[lefty rosen]

It was european roulette, which is a shade better, using a system........

[ohgeetee]

maybe it was the hotdog?

[mosta]

roulette's the only game I play in the casino (of that sort--ie not poker), because I've never learned all the details or strategy for craps or blackjack. It's very bad edge per turn, yeah yeah yeah, but it also plays pretty slow, so per hour maybe it's actually better. Who knows? Anyway, I put down $100, drink as fast as I can, and always bet the minimum. I figure out bet configurations to capitalize on the streaks. The only thing is, I can never decide if a run means that a streak will continue, or reverse and revert. That's when I call for another drink. Obviously it doesn't matter, because I'm pretty sure that I'm a lifetime winner at roulette (although I don't keep records). The one thing that annoys me is that I never see a wheel with one green. And in Europe they even have that en prison rule, or whatever, to mitigate even more (except that wouldn't matter to me bc I'm too cheap to play the outside). I guess the single greens are in the really grubby casinos, and the main ones just can't afford to make it any better (otherwise someone would), because it plays slow. The other thing is, the chicks love roulette. Always lots of girls there. What else do you need?