MLB 9/25

[Billy Baroo]

LA +134 1 unit
Det +132 1 unit
Bos -117 1 unit
Tex -189 1 unit

Nothing too great here, but I think there's some value in these lines.

LA +134 I don't think Green sitting out hurts LA very much. The Dodgers are starting the better pitcher, they have the best bullpen in the league, and they play well on the road. Good for a unit.

Det +132 Both starters are pretty awful, but Riley for the Orioles sucks on the highest level. I don't think being at home helps the Orioles much because Baltimore has played worse at home than on the road, while Detroit's home and road records are almost identical this year. The teams are pretty even IMO, so with the "better" starter I think +132 is a good price for Detroit.

Bos -117 I like Boston because I think Vazquez is worse than his stats indicate, and Boston is fantastic at home. Also, Tom Gordon can't pitch tomorrow and the Yankees might not want to risk using Rivera back to back nights in a meaningless game this late in the season. This leaves New York with a bunch of scrubs in the pen coming in after a scrubby starter. -117 is as good as it gets betting Boston in Fenway.

Tex -189 I think Texas wins in this spot more than 66% of the time (which they must do for the bet to be +EV). This is a must win game for Texas while Seattle has nothing to play for. Franklin is a total meatballer, while Drese for Texas is a very solid pitcher who keeps it on the ground and lets up very few home runs in a small park. (I don't like betting big favorites with pitchers who are homer-prone, because IMO fluke homers help the underdog a lot more than the favorite). Texas also has a fantastic record at home, while the Mariners are the worst road team in the league

[MicroBob]

LA +134
NYY/BOS over (10.5)
NYM +230
FLA ???? (waiting for a line....will take FLA at +115 or better)
MIL +176


LA +134
I like your first pick.
I agree that it appears too much stock is being put in the Shawn Green bit.
Hennesey has been decent since his call-up and threw really well in his last start but Lima is still better overall thus you are actually getting +134 on the better starter which is always nice.


Baltimore's starter Riley has pitched decently in 2 of his last 3 starts (few hits, lots of walks) so he kind of scares me a little.
9/7 vs. MIN 7ip, 2h, 1er, 5bb, 4k
9/15 @ TOR 7ip, 2h, 1er, 7bb, 5k
His walk total in those games is almost comical but I think he shows the ability to throw a decent game.
Bonderman for Det has been decent of late and was outstanding 9/9 vs. KC, 8ip, 6h, 0er, 1bb, 9k.
I think this is closer to a toss-up game so you are probably getting okay value with DET +132....but I'm going to stay away from it.

NYY-BOS
I thought the same thing you did about Vasquez a couple weeks ago and he proceeded to throw 7ip, 3h, 0er vs. KC and I lost that one.
Wakefield has been getting shelled an awful lot lately.
Last 4 starts - 20ip, 26h, 27r, 21er, 13bb, 15k.
When his knuckler loses effectiveness it REALLY loses effectiveness.

Neither pitcher gives me much confidence. I'm taking the over (10.5).


Franklin for SEA is less than spectacular. Except for his 9/15 gm vs. ANA (9ip, 2h, 0er) he is pretty lousy.
For TEX....Chris Young is listed as the starter on ESPN.com and Bodog.
Pinnacle lists Joaquin Benoit which I find highly unlikely since he was their starter yesterday. I don't see Drese listed anywhere.


FLA vs. ATL has been taken off the board everywhere for some reason.
Since ATL clinched last night I might be inclined to take Pavano and FLA. Braves might have done a bit of celebrating yesterday. But I'd sure like to see a line on that one.


NYM +230 is interesting.
Mark Prior has had 2 really good starts in his last 4 and 2 kind of lousy starts.
Aaron Heilman for NYM has not exactly lived up to his promise as of yet (1st round pick out of Notre Dame). Plus, the Cubs have won 11 of their last 13.
I still think there's value in NYM +230 just based on the possibility that Prior gets lit up.


MIL +176 - Munro has been really erratic for HTN lately. Obermueller for MIL isn't that much better. HTN should win this game a majority of the time but I think +176 is enough value to take MIL.


good luck everyone.

[Billy Baroo]

I put a lot less stock in the recent results of starting pitchers than you do, so I think that's why our picks are so different. In fact, there are many times when I pay almost no mind to the starters when I think they are evenly matched (although I have a ton of exceptions to this "rule" of mine). Unfortunately, I think this is what led to my gaff on the Texas game. Drese was listed at mlb.com, and I didn't even bother to check when I put my money down on Texas... very stupid of me. Fortunately, pinnacle had the wrong starter too so my bet is scratched.

The line just went up on FLA/ATL and I'm not too impressed with what I see. I was expecting big value on FLA again, but the way it is now I'm almost tempted to bet ATL as the underdog!... but I won't.

I came really close to betting the Mets too, but I shied away at the last second as I wanted slightly better odds than what I could find.

[MicroBob]

i'm really surprised the Fish aren't getting more too.
i might be tempted by ATL on this one as well but will probably be staying away.


LA is down to +128 so I feel like i grabbed that while it was worth grabbing.

MIL is up a little bit so I guess I took that one at an iffy price.
NYM are the same.


The Mets was one I wasn't too sure about but decided to go for it.


Yeah...i think I weigh the starter's recent performance more than most.

A sharp improvement in pitching stats can sometimes indicate they have worked out a kink in their delivery (raising their arm angle up a bit working with their pitching coach, etc etc) or just a different mentality/increased confidence, etc.
If a pitcher has lousy numbers on the season whole but has had 2 or 3 good starts more recently then I think you really need to consider the possibility that he just doesn't suck as much anymore.


I'm brand new at this but am somewhat knowledgeable about baseball.
I've been doing decently so far....but my reliance on recent starting-pitcher stats may come back to bite me hard at some point.

I really prefer to actually SEE the guy pitch then rely on his stats. Does he look like he's laboring...is he throwing hard....are the batters hitting him hard and his D is bailing him out??
Not sure how much that would accomplish though.
One of the best minor-league pitchers I've ever seen was Casey Fossum. He looked like a 20-game winner to me. So what do i know??

I don't have the direct-TV MLB package anyway and sometimes my live impressions of pitchers really suck so I'll just have to stick with the stats as i continue to get my feet wet.

[NLfool]

geez microbob seems you've been on fire with the chalk

[MicroBob]

today was a good day.

the mets pulled one out that the cubs had no business losing. i got WAY lucky.

obermueller pitched his best game of the year for MIL.

2 VERY lucky picks.

Won't win the LA game it looks like.
NYY/BOS (for the over) still remains).

I also did decently on college football today so i have no complaints.
WISC -2, UK +20... both got there. Iowa +13 pushed.


I have to have good days like this to make up for my crappy NFL picks.