figuring out odds

Ok, I was doing this by myself and i would like to continue to do this by myself...because if you do it by yourself...you are more prone to actually learn it and memorize it better....rather than looking at a table


Odds of flopping a set.....are this.....


48 * 47 * 46 103776

-- -- -- = ------

50 * 49 * 48 117600


you take 117600 and subtract 103776 and you come up with 13824


now you do this 13824


-----


117600

the answer you get is the probablity that you will flop a set, in this same exact way....

I would like to figure out the odds of making a flush on both the turn and river, and only on the river...... I'm just confused right now how to set it up......and to figure other odds like an open-ended straight......


please help....thank you.


Also.....I need to learn how to count bets that go into the pot, I don't really have a system of counting the bets in the pot.......how can you do it, effectively or near effectively.....

Your odds of flopping a set are correct. This is the odds of flopping exactly a set, not quads. You can also do 2C(49,2)/C(50,3) where 2 is the number of ways to complete the set, and

C(n,k) is combinations of n things taken k at a time = n!/[k!(n-k)!]. You are computing P(n,k) in both numerator and denominator which is permutations of n things k at a time =

n!/(n-k)!. The difference is permutations is order dependent hence the need to divide by k! when you do combinations. Sometimes it is easier to think about combinations as in this case it lets you get the answer more directly, but it is important to be consistent. Some calculators (hand held device that did math before computers came along) do

C(n,k) and P(n,k) for you.


For making a hand on next card, just take outs/total cards. For flush on turn it is 9/47, for straight it is 8/47, etc.


To get it on next 2 cards, take the 1 - probability of not getting it. For flush this is 1-(38/47)(38/46) = .33 or 2-1.


To count bets, I like to count players on each round times how many bets were put in. So if 4 players are in preflop for 1 raise, that's 8 bets. If 2 players see the turn for 1 bet, that's 2 more for a total of 10, but now its 5 because the bet doubled. You still have to add the bets to you on a given round, and remember to count any folded blinds. I just ignore the small blind if it is folded.

Some calculators (hand held device that did math before computers came along) do

C(n,k) and P(n,k) for you.


This can be used as a tell. If an opponent asks for time, and starts punching in numbers into a calculator, you can put him on a draw. Watching to see if he punches "9" or "8" can tell you if it's a flush or straight draw.


You can also use the calculator to throw your opponents off. Ask for time and punch numbers in when you want your opponents to put you on a draw.