Find the mistake

[BlackAces]

First hand of a Party 10+1...I got a flop that wasn't really ideal to my hand, but bet it anyway, then checked the turn. Then came the river card...what was my mistake on this hand, or did I make one?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed)

MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Button (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
Hero (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls t15, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t95</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls t95, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls t95, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

Flop: (t325) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, MP1 calls t200, CO folds.

Turn: (t725) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

River: (t725) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises to t400</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t505 (All-In)</font>, MP1 calls t105 (All-In).

Final Pot: t1735

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero has Qs Qh (three of a kind, queens).
MP1 has Ts Ah (straight, ace high).
Outcome: MP1 wins t1735. </font>

[michaliv]

It is definitely very hard to put him on this hand. I may have bet out on the turn again, but the check was not a bad idea (Where you planning on check/folding?). When the river gives you a set you must think your hand is best. It would be very difficult to get away from this hand at that point.

[Jason Strasser]

Looks great actually.

I dont see a mistake.
-Jason

[reecelights]

I'm going to reply without reading the results and then go back to see if I was right.

MP1 has AT, possibly both clubs.
1. Bet the pot on the flop. It's a bigger bet than you may feel comfortable with at the time, but it saves you money in the long ruin if you are reraised there. By cold calling the flop you know he's weaker than you.

2. By checking the turn you look like you're also on a draw. If you had bet it out, he may very well have folded, if he didn't have two clubs.

3. Your mistake on the river was pushing after the minimum reraise. By min raising, he wants you to call, which you probably have to do. But by pushing, you're NOT going to win his chips if he calls. You will almost certainly only get called by a hand that can beat you, in this case the nut straight since there are only 2 clubs on the board.

Now I'm gonna see if I was right...

[SlowStroke]

I would have played it the same way, except on the river I'd just call.

Saving that last $105 gives you a very slim chance to come back. I've made several comebacks with smaller stacks than that, and I'll bet you have too.

[reecelights]

I was right. It's very easy for someone on a Party 10/1 to call a 9xBB raise with AT in the first level, because they see an AT and think "it's not even 25% of my stack." It's also very easy for them to call a bet only 2/3 of the pot with a gutshot straight draw. I'm not saying they were right to do what they did, but it will happen a lot at this level.

I could see the outcome of this hand within about 3 seconds of seeing his play on the river. If you had bet more on the flop and he had reluctantly called, you maybe could have put him on KT-8. If he had raised, you know you were in major trouble.

[Daliman]

I agree with most of this, but if the guy is calling 200 on the flop, he's likely calling 325 too.

[morgan180]

I probably would have bet the turn when the blank hit. Probably not much more though ~ 1/3 - 1/4 the pot to see their reaction. I've seen tons of *bad* players start with what they think is a great hand (ATo) and then flop a draw and you can almost hear them say "Well I'll give it one more shot to see if I hit." So the one call is acceptable to them even if its not the right play. But if you fire one more *small* (in relation to the pot) bet in you can either

1. push them off their draw because they don't understand the pot/implied odds they get for calling

2. they call a small bet and then when the scare card comes on the river you can check fold with some of your stack still intact.

I'd love to hear feedback on this thought process though with someone with more experience.


Morgan edit: I have to admit that hitting my set of queens with a queen on the river is tough to view as a scare card!!!

[The Venetian]

I think I lose all my chips on this hand too, but I can see a few things I might change if I were in your shoes.

Pre-flop -- I think you could have raised smaller, to 60 perhaps. The problem with the first hand of a Party $10 SNG is that the amount you raise pre-flop will not change your poor opponents' behavior. Keeps the pot more manageable until you can see what comes on the flop. I don't think this would have changed the number of callers.

Flop -- Mediocre for you, but you may still be ahead. This is a big reason I like the pot to be smaller at this point. Now, a "legitimate" bet can be about 100, as opposed to the 175-200 you would need to bet with the pot the size that it ended up in your scenario. Another option, though it may appear weak, would be to check and see the reactions of your opponents. It may be checked through or they may pull that silly min-bet crap to steal. How your opponents react and bet could give you a clue as to their holding and keep you away from trouble.

I would disagree with the assertion above that a call of your 200 bet means that the opponent is weak. If I flopped two pair or a set and had the pre-flop raiser bet into me, I'd call too, and see if I can get him to give me all his chips with a second-best hand.

I think you were correct to check the turn...I'm assuming you give up if the opponent bets?

River -- Here's where you're probably just screwed. I don't see how anyone could absolutely put an opponent on AT here so you have to assume you have the best hand. In a Party $10, and especially early, people make some bad plays with two pair, etc. I wouldn't have hesitated calling his raise and, without being there myself, I may have done just what you did.

Tough spot. Fire up another, put the AT guy on your buddy list, and keep playing.

[Marcotte]

When I first read this, I thought I was the Villain in this hand, then I realized it was Stars. I made a similarly loose call last night with AT and a KJx flop. Whats worse, I also called a turn bet before sucking out on the river. I'll see if I can find the HH tonight and post it so y'all can rip me a new one. I almost felt guilty calling his all-in reraise /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[morgan180]

[ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop -- I think you could have raised smaller, to 60 perhaps. The problem with the first hand of a Party $10 SNG is that the amount you raise pre-flop will not change your poor opponents' behavior.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree - i think that the difference between ~4.5xBB and ~6xBB doesn't mean anything to someone who is going to call w/ ATo.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop -- Mediocre for you, but you may still be ahead. This is a big reason I like the pot to be smaller at this point. Now, a "legitimate" bet can be about 100, as opposed to the 175-200 you would need to bet with the pot the size that it ended up in your scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

again - i agree you may still be ahead - and wouldn't the blank on the turn keep you on this assumption?? you can't figure with the way this hand played out that they've improved with this card??

so i guess my question is - is one more smallish bet (rel. to pot) worth here to try to push someone off their hand? or do you think the villan would have called if you bet out with his busted four-outter? (2 of which you held!)

anyways - i probably would have been all in with my set of queens i'm just trying to see what others think about this strategy of betting the turn with an overcard out there and being first to act on some one who has just called/checked?

[ddubois]

The problem with betting again on the turn is that you could easily be against a weak king who doesn't like his kicker but will call the whole way.

[housenuts]

any sense check-raising the flop? if he checks behind you, well if an ace doesn't come or the board doesn't pair you can be almost certain you have the best hand on the turn and put out a good healthy pot sized bet.

however in writing this i forgot there was another guy in the pot as well and your bet got him out. generally i think you're playing was fine

[BlackAces]

Thanks for all the replies. I did intend to check-fold the turn to any reasonable bet. I had put the guy on a K on the flop, and figured I had him on the river. AT never even entered my mind...I was almost certain I was against 2 pair. If I had it to do again, I might have just called the raise on the river, rather than push.

Not so bad, though...I ended up cashing in three of my next 4 SNGs, winning my last two. /images/graemlins/grin.gif