shaking off rust part three [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Greg J

09-24-2004, 12:14 PM

Flame away!

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Greg is UTG+1 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, Greg raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: (7 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Greg bets, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Greg checks.

River: (4.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Greg bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

davelin

09-24-2004, 12:16 PM

I would've probably bet the turn here too.

TredWel

09-24-2004, 12:20 PM

I'd bet the turn as well, keeping up appearances as it were. SB might be on a diamond draw or might be willing to part ways with a jack.

LaggyLou

09-24-2004, 01:35 PM

I like your line. On the turn you are either well ahead or well behind. If you are ahead, then a turn bet might get SB to fold but he might well call a river bet or even try a bluff. If you are behind you get a free card and might even get a raise in if you spike a T (I note that you have the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

I don't think that many Js will fold -- MAYBE a JxQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif who didn't pick up the additional flush outs, but even that I doubt. And I discount the possibility of straight draws since you have two of the Ts. So the downside risk here is that he's on a diamond draw and you are giving a free card to possibly beat you (Can the phrase "mathematical catastrophe" be far behind??).

But how much of a risk is that, really? If he's on the diamonds he's calling anyway (getting 5.5-1). If you bet and he hits he'll get you for one more bet. If he misses (with you having bet the turn) he'll check-fold. But if you check the turn and he hits you save a bet, and if he misses he may try a bluff (or even call with something like A9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif). Given all of this and the probability that he is NOT on a flush draw (i.e., you are behind), I will dissent from the other views and say that checking is the better play.