need help with pot odds

[snaphooks]

i'm a little confused with pot odds and could use some help.

say i hold a 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and T /images/graemlins/heart.gif and the turn comes i'm holding an inside straight draw and a flush draw. according to sklansky, since i have more than 8 out cards, i should bet or raise even though i have nothing until that last card. correct?

or, also, if i am at the turn with 4 out cards my odds are just better than 10 to 1 and the pot odds are also 10 to 1 that means i should bet or raise even though my opponent obviously has me beat at the moment?

thanks for any help.

mw

[Dominic]

okay, snap...here it goes...
I assume we're talking limit and not no limit poker...

pot odds are fairly simple...in your first example, you have 13 outs for the last card - the 9 hearts that make your flush, and the 4 cards that make your gutshot, right? With 46 cards to come, that gives you 46/13 = (approx.) 3.3...this means there should be roughly 4 times your big bet (be conservative - always round up) in order for you to call a bet here. It's an easy call.

Now, your question is about the posibility of raising here...most decent players would probably do so, because it will give value to the river when they do hit their hands, and at certain tight tables it will have some folding equity (meaning, the raise itself will sometimes take the pot down right there).

But really, whether to raise here or just call, it all depends on the number of people in the pot, whether your opponents are tight or loose, or, maybe by getting an extra bet in on the turn will get maximum value for when you do turn your flush - how many times have you hit your flush on the river, bet, and get no callers? A flush is pretty easy to spot, so betting your draw on the turn is not a bad alternative.

But again, it all depends on the pot odds, the implied odds and your opponents.

Just to make it clear, though - calling on the turn is just fine, if you're a more conservative player.

In the second example, if you only have 4 outs, but you have the pot odds to call, just call - don't raise! By raising, you double the money you're putting into the pot, thus making it necessary to have 20x the bet in the pot instead of 10x - and now you no longer have the proper odds of calling!

The books can be confusing to a new player..but once you get a good amount of playing time in - especially live - you'll start to intuitively understand what they're talking about...

hope this helps, and good luck!

[Louie Landale]

No.

When all cards are face up, Betting and raising is for folks who will win more often than the number of callers. If you are heads up then one of you is the favorite and should bet, the other is the dog and should NOT bet. Notice the size of the pot (or "pot odds") has nothing to do with it in this pure face-up situation. Whether the dog hand should call is covered in the next paragraph.

When your hand is clearly NOT a favorite and the opponent bets, then you need to consider your odds against making it with the pot odds. With 4 outs you are about an 11:1 underdog (5 cards accounted for, 4 are good for you, 43 unaccounted (5+4+43=52); 43bad:4good = 11:1. If the pot offers more than 11 you should call; less than 11 you should fold. Betting or raising with this underdog hand is out of the question (if all cards are face up).

I suspect you confuse "bet" (means "bet or raise") with "invest" (means "bet or raise or call"). No. Bet means increase the wager, call means maintain the wager (and your pot show-down equity).

Now, there ARE times you should bet or raise with a hand that's not the best. If you have a flush draw (and are 2:1 against making with 2 cards to go) and you can expect 3 or more callers, then you should bet or raise. That's not a violation of my first paragraph since though you may not be "the" favorite you are never-the-less "one of the" favorites. In this case, 2 times you lose one bet and one time you win 3 bets, for a net of 1 over 3 attempts or a +EV of 1/3 bet per attempt; that's a good bet.

- Louie

[holdemfan]

Dominic,
I need clarification on your calculation of odds. I did a reply on an earlier post on Implied odds. This is how I learned it. Am I incorrect?
He has 9 heart outs and 3 for the gutshot straight (one is a heart and was already counted)equalling 12 outs. If we have our 2 pocket cards and 3 on flop there are 47 left to make the hand. 12 will help and 35 will not. Odds are 35/12 or 35 divided by 12 equalling 2.92/1. Have I learned incorrectly?

[nicholswfu]

[ QUOTE ]
He has 9 heart outs and 3 for the gutshot straight (one is a heart and was already counted)equalling 12 outs. If we have our 2 pocket cards and 3 on flop there are 47 left to make the hand. 12 will help and 35 will not. Odds are 35/12 or 35 divided by 12 equalling 2.92/1. Have I learned incorrectly?



[/ QUOTE ]

You have the technical definition correct. Odds are (Probability/1-probabilty). Comparing 12 cards that help to 35 cards that will not gives you the odds (Probability=odds/1+odds). (12 good :35 bad) Here is the problem...

It is the probability of getting the next card that is more useful in whether or not to call. The probability is 12 good:47 total. The probability gives you your chance of getting a helpful card. The odds just give you info regarding the relationship between good cards to bad cards.

Probability is the number you want, even though we talk about "odds" a lot.
Nicholswfu

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
okay, snap...here it goes...
I assume we're talking limit and not no limit poker...

pot odds are fairly simple...in your first example, you have 13 outs for the last card - the 9 hearts that make your flush, and the 4 cards that make your gutshot, right? With 46 cards to come, that gives you 46/13 = (approx.) 3.3...this means there should be roughly 4 times your big bet (be conservative - always round up) in order for you to call a bet here. It's an easy call.

Now, your question is about the posibility of raising here...most decent players would probably do so, because it will give value to the river when they do hit their hands, and at certain tight tables it will have some folding equity (meaning, the raise itself will sometimes take the pot down right there).

But really, whether to raise here or just call, it all depends on the number of people in the pot, whether your opponents are tight or loose, or, maybe by getting an extra bet in on the turn will get maximum value for when you do turn your flush - how many times have you hit your flush on the river, bet, and get no callers? A flush is pretty easy to spot, so betting your draw on the turn is not a bad alternative.

But again, it all depends on the pot odds, the implied odds and your opponents.

Just to make it clear, though - calling on the turn is just fine, if you're a more conservative player.

In the second example, if you only have 4 outs, but you have the pot odds to call, just call - don't raise! By raising, you double the money you're putting into the pot, thus making it necessary to have 20x the bet in the pot instead of 10x - and now you no longer have the proper odds of calling!

The books can be confusing to a new player..but once you get a good amount of playing time in - especially live - you'll start to intuitively understand what they're talking about...

hope this helps, and good luck!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the second time I've seen you give advice on odds calculation that is absolutely incorrect. Please stop giving advice on calculating odds until you can do it correctly yourself.

To calculate odds, you take the number of cards that will not help you and compare it to the number of cards that will help you.

Example: You have a flush draw on the turn. There are 4 board cards and 2 in your hand. There are 46 unknown cards. 9 of them will make your flush. 37 will not. Your odds are 37:9 or just over 4 to 1 (4.11:1). You do not take the total number of cards remaining and compare it to the number of cards that help you (i.e. 46:9 or 5.11:1 is wrong)

(Plus in your example, you double counted the card that makes both your flush and straight)

[TonyBlair]

Jeff, are you a school teacher? This was brilliant. The incredulity of it all really came across. Keep it up. (A+)

[TonyBlair]

OK mate. Put simply, if you believe you are behind now but your hand will be good if you hit then you have to work out if it's worth calling a bet to see the river.
In this case you'll have 12 cards that will give you your hand against 34 that won't. This means that the odds of your hitting is about (34/12) 2.8 to 1.
Compare these odds to your pot odds and call if favourable.
The pot odds are the amount in the pot at the moment against the size of the bet you must call. So if there's $10 in the pot and your opponent bets $2, the total pot size comes to (10+2) $12 and you must call $2. The pot odds are (12/2) 6 to 1. The pot odds of 6/1 are greater than the odds of making your hand (2.8/1) so calling in this instance would be correct. You don't actually give the pot size in the example given so it's up to you to work it out.

There are instances where you can bet/raise with a draw but you must either think that there's a chance your opponent(s) will fold RIGHT THERE or that you will get many callers. I'd suggest you avoid these plays until you become comfortable calculating basic pot/hand odds at the table. Once you've got that sorted come back and post about the 'raising' plays.

[dollyfan]

This might just be me, but i find it easier to just use percentage. For every card that can come out and make your hand(flush draw+ belly buster straight straight) add 2% to your hand odds for going into the river and 4% going into the turn . So 12 outs going into the river ~ 24% percent chance of catcing. calling T2 into a T 12 pot is about 17% of the pot. Since 24% > 17%, it is good to call. After a while you will know these percentages by heart and won't have to do any math while sitting at the table.

Of course, I'm not as smart as most of the people on this site. Is this something I need to change or will this work.

[CrisBrown]

Hi snaphooks,

Another approach is to count your outs and use this very easy formula: outs x cards to come x 2 == win percentage. It's not exact, especially when you have many, MANY outs, but with most of the situations you see in play, it will be close enough for the decisions you need to make.

So ... you have 9 flush outs, plus 3 straight outs (one of your straight outs is also a flush out, so you can't count it twice), giving you 12 outs.

Your percentage to make a straight or flush by the river is 12 outs x 2 cards to come x 2 = 48%.

Your percentage to make a straight or flush on the turn is 12 outs x 1 card to come x 2 = 24%.

So you're a little over 3:1 against to make a straight or flush on the turn, and almost even money to make it by the river. Should you call an opponent's bet? Well, that depends. If there are other players yet to act behind you, the better play might well be a semi-bluff raise, to drive out players behind you, one of whom might be drawing to a better flush, or the same or better straight. Plus, their "dead money" improves your pot odds.

Pushing them out of the pot with a raise increases your chances of taking that pot. What's more, if you miss at the turn, your opponent might "check to the raiser" and thus give you a free draw to the river. Similarly, if a scare card (a card your opponent fears has made your hand, although it hasn't) falls at the turn, you may be able to take the pot right there with another semi-bluff.

If this were a no-limit game, and you read your opponent for a big pair, you might even reraise all-in at this flop. Basically, you're challenging him to a coin flip (remember you're about 48% to make a straight or flush by the river, and since you're all in you will see all five board cards) for his entire stack. If he calls, you have sufficient implied odds to justify the risk. If he folds, you take the pot right there.

Cris

[MattB]

I'm with you, Snap! In addition to to all the helpful replies you have recieved, there is more good news. Matthew Hilger is coming out
with a book that is going to cover odds. I expect the book to start in a very easy fashion, and it will progress to a near expert level.
Last I heard, Hilger's book should be available around January of 2005.

Matt B.

[skibum]

All I can say is you better get a road map 'cause you're getting sent down the wrong road home left and right.

[Dominic]

Hold...I had a brain fart that day and decided to forget a step!

You're absolutely right about your calculations!

Sorry for the confusion, but at least I wrote my miscalculations with such confidence that I had you questioning yours! If I'm going to go down, I'll go down in flames!

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Dominic]

you're right, I'm wrong! I'm a doofus.

But I still would never draw to a staight when a three flush is on the board, Jeff.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Dominic]

I like this approach, Cris...thanks!

[holdemfan]

Thank you for your response and I can relate to the brain fart. I wasn't as much questioning my calculations because I did verify it before posting. I just wanted to politely say that you missed a couple steps in your calculation. My respect to you in your honesty.

[cybertilt]

Louie,
I have a small problem with your logic regarding the outs. for the flush part I think it should be 4 to 1. what you are not considering is if, with 2 cards to come, I don't hit the turn, I now have to post another bet to see the river. If you want to count both cards, you need to count both bets. I don't see many pots that aren't giving you 4 to 1, but if your going to raise, then you really need to consider the true odds.

My next real problem is I have read the previous posts and not a one has adjusted the outs for their chance to win. A ten high flush is in no way the nuts. I just don't think I would be raising for value unless my results were higher up the food chain. For example, say I bet and then raised by a TOM, and then called in two spots. We can probly put the TOM on a made hand, but what are those two callers drawing to, what are their starting standards. Just to many if's not to make some kind of adjustment.

Go ahead and blaze away.

[Louie Landale]

2nd paragraph: Yes. The biggest problem folks have is confusing the difference between "making the hand" and "winning". You should compare your "pot-odds" with your odds against winning, not with the odds against making your hand: if the flop is KdQdJd and you have 3h2h, you have "6 outs to make your hand" but so what.

1st paragraph: No. Well, mostly no. With this many folks in the pot you are GOING to see the turn card with your big draw. Yes, you need to reduce my "2:1" chances a little bit for the times you do NOT see the turn (that would be if the board pairs and its 3 bets to you and you fold but you WOULD have one had you called and made the flush. That's not often). You are 2:1 against making the hand and are realistically about a 2.5:1 dog against winning; and that maches favorably to the 3:1 you are getting for your raise. Raise. It doesn't matter that you are unlikely to want to bet or raise on the turn (if you miss).

But you are correct that if someone is considering CALLING the flop bet (say heads up against an obvious big pair), you cannot use the "2:1" figure without considering the cost of the turn bet. If the opponent bets 1sb into a 3sb pot and will bet the turn, then you can win 6sb for a cost of 3sb of 2:1; not enough for your 2:1 draw (since as you said you may lose even if you hit). In fact (heads up small pot), it turns out that you should often call the small flop bet and fold to a turn bet. That comes up with weak draws such as gut shots, since the pot is a little bigger and your impied odds are MUCH bigger, than it is on the turn.

- Louie