MLB 9/24

[MicroBob]

SEA +144
NYM +142
NYY +152
NYY-BOS Under-9


SEA +144 looks good to me.
Bobby Madritch (5-3, 2.99) has been terrific lately and Texas is starting either Chris Young or Joaquin Benoit (ESPN lists Benoit, the betting sites list Young). Young did well in his last start but the value is in Madritch.
Last 3 starts for Madritch: 23.1IP, 19h, 4er, 19k...including 8ip of 5 hit shutout ball vs. BOS.
7 of his last 9 starts since 8/5 have been very strong.


I think there's value in NYM +142 but I don't think I'm going to do it. Kris Benson can be either great or lousy.
Glendon Rusch for CHC was very good in his last start.
This look much closer to a toss-up game to me thus the reason I think NYM has value.
On second thought, I've changed my mind...I'm taking NYM +142 in this one and will hope Benson repeats his performance of 9/14 (vs. ATL 9ip, 4h, 0er) and not his performance of 9/19 (@PIT 6ip, 6h, 6er).


Can Pedro lose 3 straight?
NYY +152 looks pretty strong.
Mussina has been terrific in his last 4 starts (30ip, 21h, 4er, 1hra, 3bb, 35k). His ERA has come down from 5.43 to 4.60 in that stretch.

Finally, I find an over/under I'm comfortable with.
I'm also taking the under (9) in NYY-BOS.

[Billy Baroo]

FLA +167 2 units
StL -149 2 units
LA +122 1 unit
Cle +245 1 unit

I thought hard about the Texas/Seattle game, but decided against playing it after coming very close to betting on Texas. This is a huge series for Texas and they've been playing well. Seattle, on the other hand, is a crappy team with nothing to play for. I'm also expecting some regression to the mean from Madrich. He's had great results lately, but I wasn't really impressed with his stuff when I watched the Boston game so I expect him to come back to Earth fast. The reason I held off betting is that both Young and Madrich are hard to figure because they've had so little major league experience, so I'm pretty clueless as to where I think the line should be.

Of my picks, I like St. Louis because Suppan is the better pitcher and he's able to keep it on the ground for the most part (thus neutralizing Coors field somewhat). I think the Cards easily win more than 60% here, so I'm going with them. I may even put down another unit on them.

I'm kind of surprised at this line on the Florida/Atlanta game, the low/mid 130s seems more reasonable to my feeble capping skills. Atlanta has essentially locked up a playoff spot, so Cox is likely to give a little rest to his key players. The Marlins are a decent road team and I think some of their recent struggles may be related to living in South Florida in the midst of the hurricanes, so being out of town with the hurricanes behind them may actually help them.

[MicroBob]

Interesting views. We obviously come from completely different angles in looking at these.

I don't usually buy the whole 'nothing to play for' bit. The fans and sports-talk guys seem to think that a lot....but these guys don't just roll-over and play dead.
Seattle is 5-4 in their last 9 games against a couple other teams that have much to play for (ANA and OAK). They just beat-up on Bartolo Colon 16-6 the other night AND have had a day off (important for a travelling team).

I'm not saying Seattle is the better team here....and Texas has continued to play inspired ball. But Seattle has a good starter going and I can just see this one going either way so the +144 value on the M's was enough for me.


I looked at StL. But they're coasting now....and might be playing a few more AAA-guys and resting up other players. Not sure.
you're observations on Suppan's effectiveness at Coors is valid though. maybe go with the under on that thinking.


I might be convinced on Fla. Valdez is great or mediocre but there's decent value there.
Might toss a unit on that one.


LA-SF I'm staying away from. Both teams have a LOT to play for. Odalis Perez has been erratic lately and has gone 6ip or less in each of his last 6 starts. only 4 or 5 ip in 4 of those starts.


CLE +245 is an interesting pick.
I suppose you're thinking that MIN isn't as inspired now that they've clinched plus the possiblity that they'll rest a couple of their starting positional players.
but Santana is going for his 20th win AND has thrown 29 straight innings of shut-out ball.
Santana's last 4 starts: 29ip, 15h, 0er, 2bb, 41k.
He's also 10-0 in his last 10 starts (11-0 in his last 12).
His last loss was 7/11 and he didn't exactly get beat up (vs. DET, 8ip, 2h, 2er, 2bb, 11k). just took a tough one.
....Cleveland's pitcher threw well vs. KC last week. He's listed as a 27-year-old rookie which is interesting.

I was actually tempted to take the Twins in this one but it goes against my nature to go with a team at -263.

[MicroBob]

SEA pulled it out 8-7.
NYM blew it in the 10th 2-1
NYY won 6-4.
I missed the over/under on NYY/BOS.
I went 2-2 but since I was getting about 3/2 on SEA and NYY I made a little profit onb these picks so I'm reasonably happy.


Billy won with STL and LA.
FLA lost late 8-7. CLE lost to MIN.
so he also went 2-2.


We didn't exactly knock it out fo the park but we didn't get killed at least.